The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report.

The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year.

The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November.

On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%.

Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested.

Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province.

Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again.

Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble.

The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information.

Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues.

Corn

Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report.

However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south.

There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope.

The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply.

In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April. However, as usual wheat is the only crop that we expose to four different seasons and there is a plethora of risk ahead. Cash prices for wheat at $6.50 per bushel do not offer Ontario wheat producers profitable opportunities when all things are considered. However, keep in mind and nothing ever stays the same especially when it comes to prices and market orders should be set to capture good wheat pricing opportunities over winter.

The Canadian dollar continues to add stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. A key driver in the Canadian dollar’s continuing trade relationship with the United States and as we all know that’s a pretty tough one. It is hard to know how that is all going to work out. At the same time the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 2.25% earlier which is bearish to neutral for the Canadian dollar. At a certain point the Canadian dollar is going to turn up, but of course it’s very difficult to know when. Needless to say, when it does turn up it will have a negative impact on Ontario cash grain prices. The challenge will be to continue to balance our foreign exchange concerns with grain futures prices.

Our geopolitical world continues to churn. The Ukraine Russia war has dominated much of this concern over the last 3 1/2 years. It continues with almost daily reports of peace initiatives led by the Americans. The grain market especially for wheat and corn seems to have neutralized their trading algorithms with regard to the war. It seemingly doesn’t matter anymore. However, as always it is a big concern and hopefully in 2026 will come to an end. At the end of the day, if peace ever reaches that region agriculture production should increase substantially.

As mentioned earlier, South American weather will remain top of mine for every producer whether they’re in Ontario, Iowa or in Mato Grosso Brazil. At the present time about 59% of Argentinian soybean planting has been completed according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. It is rated at 58% good to excellent. Meanwhile our Brazilian friends have 90% of their soybean crop planted. Yes, even though it’s cold outside watch for news regarding weather markets forming out of South America.

As we careen into the new year there certainly will be many challenges for those of us on the farm. One constant that we will always have is building our marketing plan to manage all the risks that we have looking forward. 2026 will be no different. There is a record crop behind us, and there is a record crop in front of us. However, demand is growing, and you never know when some butterfly will be causing chaos somewhere. Sometimes the best laid plans don’t happen, and markets start to gyrate. Yes, even in 2026 risk management will not grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same time there’s been a bit of a dearth of market information as the US government shutdown has meant very little in terms of information coming out from USDA. However, this all changed on November the 14th when despite the continuing governing shutdown, the USDA released their latest WASDE report.

For market watchers it was a long two months without USDA numbers. Many were expecting much lower numbers in this November report. However, it seems like big supply is still winning. The USDA actually lowered corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 bushels per acre. This was much lower than pre report expectations. This put US domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels from two years ago. Planted acreage was maintained at 98.7 million acres with harvested acreage at 90 million acres. The corn ending stocks for this year were raised 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. The 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production was raised to 136 MMT, while Argentinian production was maintained at 50 MMT.

On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA reduced soybean yields by .5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was left unchanged from September at 80.3 million acres. This put total US production at 4.253 billion bushels a slight decrease from September. At the end of the day the USDA reduced their ending stocks to 290 million bushels which is a drop from 300 million bushels in September. Brazilian soybean production is set at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT for Argentina. This is unchanged from September. The US wheat production is set at 1.985 billion bushels which is unchanged from the September small grains report.

On Nov 16th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.67 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $11.24 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.15. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.64 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.15 a bushel.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on November 14th, 2025, was .7130 US, about the same vs the .7025 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%.

In Ontario it has been a good harvest window for a crop that has been widely divergent depending on where you are in the province. As of November 16th, most if not all of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Corn continues to be harvested with an estimate of about 65% complete. Widespread snow in the province in the middle of November did cause somewhat of a slowdown. Yields reflect the drought conditions of the summer with central and eastern Ontario being pretty tough. On the contrary corn yields in the deep southwest of Ontario are record high by a lot.

As a general rule winter wheat acreage in Ontario is highly correlated to wheat planting conditions in the fall. In other words, if it’s a good fall wheat production is usually up. This does not necessarily reflect 2025 as we had a very good fall, but wheat production is set to come in at about 1 million acres which would be slightly below last year.

Ontario basis levels for grains has increased slightly from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar being at a low ebb has been part of this equation but also the uneven supply and drought-stricken areas has been another. For instance, some basis bids in eastern Ontario are much higher than the rest of the province for corn. The US replacement prices also favourable toward importing corn into Ontario. However, with big corn supplies in the deep southwest the situation is fluid.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.52. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.79 bu. range. On November 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.23/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The November USDA report was a disappointment to market observers who are expecting much more. Interestingly enough, the November report is usually a dull report on a normal year. However, with the government shutdown and with the trading algorithms not being fed U.S. government numbers for about 60 days it was widely anticipated as a big report. However, when it was released and the numbers were presented, it looks like big supply won the day again as there wasn’t a big difference from September.

The big news in geopolitics over the last few weeks has been the anticipation of soybean purchases from the Chinese again. The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi was widely seen as possible impetus to a catalyst on soybean purchases. However, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The USDA actually reduced export demand on November 14th and this tempered soybean prices significantly post report.

After the Trump/ Xi meeting, the Chinese did agree to buy approximately 12 MMTs of soybeans this market year with an additional 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Keep in mind that in the 2024/2025 marketing year China bought 22.5 MMTs of soybeans from the US. So, in many ways, having the Chinese buy 12 MMTs of soybeans in this marketing year is half a celebration. Trade wars might be easy to win, but in this case, it looks like China has won this round.

However, there might be a pullback in prices. There certainly was on the USDA report date. At the present time cash Brazilian soybean values are lower and at a certain point the Chinese will need soybeans in December and January and the Americans would be well placed to serve that need before the Brazilian crop starts being harvested. As per usual in these geopolitical situations nothing is true, and everything is true at the same time. Cheap agricultural commodities are always the great elixir to make sales possible.

Corn

Was the USDA number on corn of 186 bushels per acre a proverbial head fake? In other words, traders were expecting a much lower number in fact some were saying 3.2 or more bushels lower than 186 based on the cash markets over the last 60 days. Coming in at 186 bushels per acre was surprising to many. Should we expect this number to go lower in December and the final report in January much lower?

Keep in mind that demand is off the chart for corn. For instance, US domestic usage alone is forecast at 13.08 billion bushels. The corn export number for 2025 and 2026 is now pegged at 3.75 billion bushels which is up 100 million bushels from September. There is some testosterone in these numbers. With big supply, we need that.

The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. This spread is the same as last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have had a little bullish run over the last several weeks but along came the USDA on November 14th and it put a kibosh on that. USDA lowered the soybean number down to 53 bushels per acre which was expected but there was very little else in the report to support the market bulls. Soybeans retreated over $0.20 on the day and will need to regroup to move ahead.

Our American friends have been looking at this regroup as Chinese buying of American soybeans. However, that is not happened yet in any big way. For instance, the American government shutdown has meant that none of this has been documented and released for publication. At the same time any agreement with the Chinese only reflects lower numbers if it happens at all. However, on the flip side if in the unexpected event China does come through in a big way for American beans, it will be good for soybean prices. Needless to say, the cash price for Brazilian beans now is far below American gulf soybeans values.

The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11.75 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

In the wheat market over the last two weeks of October and the first week in November we had kind of an earthquake. This refers to about a dollar appreciation in the futures price of wheat at Chicago which is pretty unusual. As we all know, there is wheat everywhere with supply being replenished all the time. On que, in the November 14th USDA report, USDA increased global production substantially which always puts a temper on prices. This resulted in global ending stocks increasing for wheat as well as an increase recorded for the United States. It looks as we finish off 2025, there’s wheat everywhere again.

In Ontario you would think that a dollar rally in wheat futures prices and corresponding cash price would be a cause for celebration. However, cash price is at $6.79 a bushel for next summer haven’t quite moved the needle. Ontario producers are certainly hoping for more based on the cost of production which has continually got higher overtime. Wheat is also usually a little bit riskier to contract forward as it’s the only crop we expose to four different seasons of risk. It is a long way to pay day in the summer of 2026.

The Canadian dollar has been trading under $0.71 US for several weeks and although nobody knows how this will trade in the next several weeks, we do know that a dollar this low is good for Ontario cash grain prices. As always, the value of the Canadian dollar is usually reflected as an inverse on to where the US dollar is going. However, in the current geopolitical state between the United States and Canada, the value of Canadian dollar has reflected the reality of the trade war with the United States. In other words, these are unusual times between United States and Canada and the smaller country is always going to lose in the economic optics of that tussle. The Canadian dollar moving down into 70 cent territory is part of that and it may continue.

In many ways it’s a very tough thing for Canada but not necessarily that way for Ontario grain producers. For instance, a perfect storm for Ontario grain farmers is for rising grain futures prices and the lower Canadian dollar. That’s exactly what we have gotten over the last six weeks with corn, soybean and wheat futures rising while the Canadian dollar went lower. This has resulted in much higher cash prices than were expected earlier in the year. It may or may not continue but it should serve as an example of how divergent moves in the futures and currency markets can result in good opportunities for Ontario farmers.

Keep in mind as our harvest season winds down here in Ontario, our friends in South America are hard at it planting crops. For instance, Brazil soybeans are over half planted as of November 16th with some areas far better than that. Of course, we know that the health of these crops in South America will have a huge bearing on the prices our futures market generates. In many ways, it’s like a spring weather market at the start of our winter. It’s important that we keep abreast of South American conditions moving forward.

The challenge for Ontario farmers looking to market their cash grain as well as their future grain production plans in 2026 is to balance all of these market variables. The reality of big supply was confirmed in the November 14th USDA report. It is also true this was done by a skeletal crew and maybe the next couple USDA reports will be a little bit more thorough and different. In any case, it will be important to partake in daily market intelligence. There surely will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The last six weeks have proved that. Surely the next six weeks will too. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout farm country. In the meantime, politics has taken over in the American government which has led to a shutdown of government services. This includes much of the crop reporting functions of the USDA and the monthly WASDE report. Hopefully this will change going into November, but it is all conjecture at this point.

Keep in mind that USDA reports do serve as a benchmark for market action. They are not perfect and in fact, 2025 has been an example of that. For instance, going from last month’s report we have a record corn production expected of 16.814 billion bushels on an average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is projected on a record corn acreage of 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage which is now projected at 90 million acres. Looking back, the USDA predicted corn acreage this year at 95.3 million acres on March 31st. The difference is striking, and it has had an effect on the market.

The same could be said for the soybean market as planted acreage from September being adjusted to 81.1 million acres. The USDA had predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans on March 31st. Clearly, it’s hard to square the circle on how these numbers could be so different over the course of a few months. Needless to say, USDA numbers give us benchmarks which are consumed by trading algorithms, which discover our futures prices. In lieu of those benchmarks, the market still gives better clues sometimes than the USDA. For instance, futures spreads have been narrowing and basis levels have been increasing across the greater American corn belt. This hints at the crop might not be as big as advertised. As we move ahead, without government numbers zeroing in on futures spreads and basis values over the next few weeks are extremely important to understand market direction.

On October 17th corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.22 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.57 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.19 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.64. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 17th, 2025, was .7125 US, lower vs the .7221 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%.

It has been an amazing stretch of harvest weather from late September into October 16th across Ontario. Warm temperatures and dry days intermixed with just a few rain showers has led to big harvest progress throughout Ontario farm country. As of October, the 15th about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and 2% of Ontario corn has been harvested.

You can make an argument that drought is good at harvest time, allowing fast harvest progress. However, as we all know severe drought in much of central and eastern Ontario has impacted crops this year leading to very low yields in some cases. As of the end of September this continued. However, yields have been very good in the deep southwest of the province which got more rainfall throughout the growing season. Overall yield for both corn and soybeans for Ontario will be down from last year and quite significantly in the droughty areas.

Ontario basis levels for corn have retreated from earlier levels where there were premiums for early harvest corn. This corn would have been harvested in late September or very early October. The lower basis values lately reflect lots of corn in the United States as well as deep southwestern Ontario. However, there will likely be basis opportunities in eastern Ontario reflecting the drought of the last summer. The soybean basis actually increased slightly from last month reflecting largely the drop in the Canadian dollar to the .7125 US level. Foreign exchange, as always is a major factor in the Ontario soybean basis level.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.90. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.41 bu. range. On October 17th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

Daily market intelligence remains key to our marketing plans in 2025. At the present time that is very difficult especially when the USDA is not releasing crop reports which are usually the lifeblood of trading algorithms. In the meantime, focusing in on narrowing spreads in futures and basis values can offer some of the best clues.

Those clues now are showing a tightening of future spreads especially in corn and a little bit less so in soybeans. Is it the start of something or is it simply a head fake? It is all so hard to know especially at a time when the USDA is not releasing numbers on grain. However, it would seem that commercial interests are back in the market as the week ended on October 17th. Of course, this is all relative to the big size of the crop out there.

Much has been said about the lack of Chinese soybean buying from the United States but there are really no economic reasons for the Chinese to do so. At the current effective tariff rates of the 23% against US soybeans its cost prohibitive for Chinese processors. US soybean prices are now below Brazilian prices and $1.40 bushel below Chinese domestic prices. This would come especially at a time when there is a gap between South America supply. However, it may seem that trade wars are bit harder to win than once thought. It’s just a long story now.

Domestically, US soybean crush in September was 12% higher than the year before as the US crush industry continues to expand into territory not seen previously. This sector is particularly sensitive to any trade announcement coming between China and the United States. An argument could be made if things are normalized soybean prices could be springboard higher. However, these are not normal times especially with the vacuum of USDA information.

Corn

186.7 bushels per acre is a very solid US domestic yield, in fact a record. However, without official USDA numbers it is hard to judge if that is been backed off going into October. Future spreads and basis along with the price movement have told us that there is a strong indication that the yield might not be as high as that. A two-bushel reduction in yield significantly alter the stocks picture based on previous record production.

Corn prices have increased somewhat from the August lows and domestic use has been strong in the United States as well as big export numbers. It is always hard to tell without the government reports, but Mexico has been a big buyer of corn at these price levels. There is a lot of livestock to feed and a lot of corn products to be consumed in Mexico.

The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. However, this spread has been narrowing over the last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Do soybeans offer hope for producers? It seems that way especially when you take the lower acreage this year but realistically soybeans really haven’t gone anywhere in two years. We have been stuck between a range of $9.50 a bushel and $10.50 a bushel on the front futures month. It has been very difficult to break above that.

The soybean market has grown accustomed to not having any Chinese buying in it. The Chinese need to buy 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans between now and when new crop soybeans start coming off in January from Brazil. There is a meeting scheduled for the end of the month between President Trump and President Xi but of course any trade agreement is a theory now. However, a surprise announcement would help soybeans break out of that big range it’s been in for quite some time.

The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Are wheat prices on the way back after such a bearish time? Add a certain point you would have to say yes with Chicago wheat dipping to such low levels. However, as always wheat suffers from the inescapable fact that is grown everywhere throughout the world and planted and harvested every month. Supply dips are always smoothed over quickly.

In Ontario the biggest clue to how much wheat will be planted usually has to do with harvest weather and this year it has being exquisite toward the end of September and into mid-October. This should facilitate the maximum amount of wheat planted possibly over 1,000,000 acres again. However, low prices have been the bane of wheat producers over the last year, and this continues. Don’t be surprised if we do see a pull up in planted acres in 2025.

The Bank of Canada recently reduced their overnight lending rate to 2.5%, which is a bearish factor for the Canadian dollar. The drop of the Canadian dollar down to the 71 cent level US continues to sustain Ontario grain prices. The interest rate cut and the ongoing problems with the United States without a trade agreement is leading to some economic uncertainty and possibly weak growth forecasts for the economy. The Canadian dollar is reflecting this, and it is showing up in Ontario basis levels for grain.

Will we see a post-harvest grain market rally? Typically, we do although looking back it certainly wasn’t a characteristic last year after harvest. It’s pretty clear as we look ahead that there could be several events that could ignite grain markets further. One could be anything within the geopolitics of the Middle East and the other could be some type of surprise trade agreement between the United States and China. As we move into November all of this is possible.

As we forge ahead it will all be about harvest progress and yield as well as currency movements and basis and local logistics. Yes, regardless of futures spreads and basis tightening we still have a big crop out there weighing on our prices. The challenge for Ontario producers is to bring this crop home and stay true to their marketing plan formed over a period of weeks and months. Risk management never grows old. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

     It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater American corn belt. As we headed into the end of September many market observers were wondering just how much impact the dry late summer had on the crops growing in the field.  On September 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report.

      At first glance the September 12th USDA report was bearish showing some very big numbers. In an unexpected move the USDA increased corn production 72 million bushels pushing the projected record total up to 16.814 billion bushels. This happened despite a 2.1 bushel per acre cut in 2025 yield down to 186.7 bushels per acre. The lower yield was offset from USDA by increasing planted acreage and expected harvested acreage.  So, we are smashing the previous production record that took place in 2023/2024 of 15.34 billion bushels of corn.  The US planted corn acreage was increased 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage is now projected to be 90 million acres up 1.3 million acres from last month.  Corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 for the US corn crop is now 2.117 billion bushels which is the highest ending stock in 7 years.  Keep in mind anticipated corn demand is at a record high of 16.06 billion bushels.

      On the soybean side the USDA was not as dramatic as they were with the corn.  US domestic yield was actually cut 1/10 of a bushel down to 53.5 bushels per acre with planted acreage at 81.1 million acres and harvested acreage to be 80.3 million acres.  This puts the total soybean production to come in at 4.301 billion bushels.  The increase in soybean acreage resulted in a slight increase from the 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans being predicted last month.  Production in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.  China’s import of soybeans is expected to be 112 MMTs, the same as last month.  The USDA will update their wheat production forecast in its Small Grains Summary to be released September 30th.

                 On September 12th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel.  Dec 2026 corn was at $4.69 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.46 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.23 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.29 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of September 12th closed at $62.69/barrel the same vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.20/gallon, up vs the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on September 12th, 2025, was .7221 US, lower vs the .7243 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

In Ontario the yield robber this year will likely be the protracted dry weather that many areas of the province received during the 2025 growing season. Simply put, it was a dry year for eastern and central Ontario as well as the Niagara region and parts of west central Ontario.  The one exception is the deep southwest of Ontario which received adequate rainfall and has tremendous crops in the field.  However, an argument could still be made that it is still dry and some of these drought induced fields have already seen soybean harvest started.

Corn harvest started earlier for some people in central and eastern Ontario who had no alternative but to harvest corn for silage hoping to salvage something from the drought. At the same time rapid movement of corn out of the province led to a situation where basis levels were much higher especially in eastern Ontario going into Quebec.  In other words, large expanses of central and eastern Ontario are the complete opposite of the big crop in the greater American corn belt. As we look ahead US corn will likely move into these areas in 2025/2026 rapidly replacing corn that didn’t come to fruition through drought ravaged fields in 2025.  In fact, any early harvest corn coming off this September can find a big premium vs going into later October and November. It’s a unique situation. 

Basis levels have risen or widened since the last Market Trends report.  This is partly a reflection of the low Canadian dollar currently at .7221 US but also a reflection of the amount of corn that has left the province. This also represents good opportunity for farmers selling as we look ahead. If there’s been one silver lining to the swoon in futures prices over the last year, it’s about our Ontario basis levels. The Canadian dollar has largely been a stimulus to these price levels. The uneven forecast for Ontario corn supply going into 2026 will surely create some basis opportunities looking ahead in eastern Ontario.

      Old crop corn basis levels are $1.90 to $2.36 over the December 2025 corn futures on September 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.96 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.04.  For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On September 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.92/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

     There is a huge crop coming in at record levels. It is almost hard to get your mind around it. The USDA has certainly been somewhat uneven over the summer of 2025 with regard to the number of acres that are in the ground. However, with combines rolling across the American corn belt the corn and soybeans are starting to come in and in the next few weeks we should have an even better appreciation for where this crop is.

     The overall question might be why did the market react positively to the biggest corn crops ever to be planted in the United States?  Of course, if we knew that for sure we could hedge appropriately but keep in mind we’ve had so much negative and bearish news over the period of the summer. Some traders have often said don’t short a sleeping market and that’s what the corn market might have been over the last 60 days.  The record demand which can often get overlooked in a big supply scenario is having an impact.

     Futures spreads in corn have been weakening over the last month reflecting the notion that the crop might not be as good as first advertised.  Initial yield reports out of Illinois are substantiating that. However, on the soybean side the November January futures spreads were unchanged on report day. The commercial side was actually growing more bearish with regard to buying soybeans going into the weekend.  So, basis levels in the United States for both corn and soybeans may widen on this run up in futures.

      The demand picture for corn is strong.  It is the same for soybeans, but American soybeans not so much because of a lack of Chinese purchasing.  Keep in mind the price of beef and pork as we go into the grain harvesting season. The price of beef has been at record highs and the price of pork has been high as well. It’s quite obvious that this is good for feed demand, and it will likely be sustained through the winter. The beef and pork price complex is healthy for a variety of reasons.  A surging stock market does help consumers in the United States keep up their purchasing of protein.

Corn

     98.7 million acres of corn is huge. Since the June 30th acreage report we have gained 3.5 million acres of corn which is like piling on.  This is the highest acreage since 1936 and it screamed bearishness for the market. However, as we all know the market went up on the news seemingly having digested all the bearishness before the report. It was a strange move.

Having said that, 16.817 billion bushels of corn is a record by a mile versus the 15.34 billion bushels grown two years ago.  You would think at a certain point corn will be hitting some headwinds. However, we also have record corn demand currently sitting at 16.06 billion bushels.  That is just as mind boggling or even more so than the production number. it makes the price picture looking ahead that much more mysterious.

The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 17 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 15th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

     Soybeans reacted positively to the USDA report despite being a very big crop.  We’ve all become accustomed to the cliche that July weather and pollination affects corn prices and August rains affect soybean prices and soybean production. However, it’s completely obvious this year that we had one of the driest Augusts on record in the United States, but the USDA is still coming in with the 53.5 bushel per acre average.  It’s like it doesn’t add up. That might be what the market sentiment is saying at the moment.

     Most American commentators continue to ask about the spectre of China buying soybeans.   However, they have not bought any new crop.  From a Canadian perspective this is very understandable considering China is a target of the US trade war. However, there are some still in the industry who are thinking a meeting in October between US and Chinese officials might break that impasse.   However, is getting late for that and basis is widening especially in the US northern plains.

The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 19 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 12th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

     It’s an old story for wheat, but it is in rough shape. The Chicago wheat contract as well as Kansas City wheat contract are close to the $5 level and there isn’t much downside because it’s been at this level for so long. For instance, would you want to be short at these levels? Having said that, there has to be some production calamity somewhere else in the world to get these prices moving higher. We seem to have moved past anything they might do that in the Black Sea region even with the hot war continuing on.

      The same sentiment is clearly resonating throughout Ontario wheat country. Wheat has many benefits in conditioning the soil for future soybean and corn crops. However, it is very difficult to pencil in wheat as profitable at the moment with prices below $6 a bushel.  The Canadian dollar does help currently fluttering in the 72-cent level.  As always good fall weather largely determines how big the Ontario wheat crop becomes.

     The Canadian dollar at .7221 US continues to act as a stimulant for Ontario cash grain prices. There are various reasons that this might be happening but there is an expectation that the Bank of Canada might be cutting interest rates shortly. There is also the weakness in some of our employment and economic data that will continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar.  Of course, as we all know the ongoing trade negotiation with the United States will always serve as a firecracker of volatility for the value on the Canadian dollar.

     Of course, when it comes to grain prices, we have our geopolitics and our greater world. It would seem like our grain trading algorithms have dialed in so much bad news that they do not react to an incursion of 20 Russian drones into Poland and Romania.  Simply put, big supply is still here in 2025. For instance, in the September USDA report world wheat production was increased 10 MMTs because almost every significant world wheat growing areas had their yield increased. 

     We are now headed into the gut slot of harvest in October. With that we will get basis deterioration probably across the board in every location. However, it will vary where supply have been compromised. Keep in mind, our South American friends will begin planting their soybean crop in October and it is set to be another record.  There is no rest for the farmer marketer. Opportunity could present itself around every corner.

     The challenge for the Ontario farmer is to balance all of these marketing factors and pounce on opportunities.  It hasn’t been easy this year in Ontario and that fact alone will present cash price anomalies we might have never thought of before. However, at the same time the border is open for grain to come in so daily market intelligence will be key going ahead. Our risk management never ends, 2025 just represents a year where we continue to adjust it. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

     Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but pod set in soybeans can be the real deal in August.  It’s been a pretty good year for the US corn belt with good weather almost from the beginning. So far, even the summertime weather has been kind.  On August the 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report.

     In many respects, it was a shocker. It came in corn with the USDA predicting a whopping 16.7-billion-bushel corn crop with record yields projected at 188.8 bushels per acre. This would shatter the previous record and it was a good seven plus bushels above last month estimate.  The previous corn record production was in 2023/2024 at 15.34 billion bushels.  This planted acreage was increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres. The harvested acres are projected at 88.7 million acres up 1.9 million from the July estimate.  Crop corn ending stocks was boosted 457 million bushels to 2.117 billion bushels.

     The USDA prediction on corn was a big surprise and to some extent the soybean estimate was as well. However, it was a surprise on the bullish side.  USDA came out and predicted 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans which was at the low end of pre report estimates. This was based on a national average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre which would be a record high that came about. However, USDA reduced harvested acreage from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million acres. This means that we actually have declining ending stocks on the new crop side of 290 million bushels, 20 million bushels lower than a month ago.  The USDA also cut back on world ending stocks 124.9 MMTs, a decline at 1.17 MMTs from last month.

                 On Aug 15th corn and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.  Soybean futures were higher.    September 2025 corn futures was at $3.83 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.05 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.42 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.06 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.70 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.42 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of Aug 15th closed at $62.80/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $64.87/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.05/gallon, the same as the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 15th, 2025, was .7243 US, lower vs the .7334 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

Ontario

     In Ontario there is a mixed bag with regard to the crop growing in the field. Although much of the province got off to a good start dry weather and drought has inundated many parts of Ontario. Areas in central, western and eastern Ontario and the Niagara region have been and are suffering from drought conditions.  There has been some relief to these areas with recent rainfall, but the damage has been done. On the contrary the deep southwest of the province has had ideal conditions with good moisture almost all year. This will incubate many basis pricing opportunities within the province over the next few months.

     Basis levels for corn have increased substantially over the last few weeks and especially in eastern Ontario.  It is always a balancing act with regard to how much corn is needed and how much is exported and how much is available in Ontario each year.  Of course, it is August now and lots of old crop corn has left the building.  Pricing opportunities for those who have corn left are quite good compared to the southwestern part of the province.  The Canadian dollar continues to stimulate these cash prices.

     Soybean basis levels have moved up reflecting the higher futures prices. Clearly, with the drought in many parts of Ontario corn supply moving forward might be compromised. This could result in big basis opportunities for pricing in the next few months. However, it could also result in increased US imports of corn to keep prices low. It has been a few years since we’ve had this situation. Much will depend on the final yield of the 2025 corn crop.  Keep in mind in the Deep Southwest of Ontario the corn crop is good, and this is where the majority of corn volume wise is grown in the province.

      Old crop corn basis levels are $1.80 to $2.53 over the September 2025 corn futures on August 15th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.62 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.05 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.05 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.87.  For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On August 15th the US replacement price for corn was $6.40/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

     We have a record crop to deal with.  It is almost getting to be what they used to call a broken record, continually playing the same song.  Over the last couple of years, we’ve got so accustomed to huge crops in the United States and its blunting effect on higher prices. However, this year on August 12 to USDA came out with the earth-shattering number of 188.8 bushels per acre of corn it redefined huge crop.  Yes, skeptics will scoff at that number, but regardless there is a lot of corn in the field in the United States.

     Needless to say, December futures fluttering just above the $4.00 mark don’t lie. However, it’s pretty obvious that our American friends will have to put that big crop somewhere. Storage will be at a premium, surely some of it will be bagged in the field. There will be piles everywhere. There is also lots of on farm 2024 corn left. This will likely manifest itself at harvest time in lower prices and basis levels unless those combine yield stories tell a different tale.  This might be one of those years.

Do soybeans offer a much better story looking ahead?  At first glance it would seem so based on the lower harvested acres the USDA estimated. Yes, they did put out a record yield at 53.6 bushels per acre but there was a cut of 2.4 million acres. That is significant and if that yield estimate changes on a hot and dry time over the next three weeks ending stocks will grow smaller.  This could set up an opportunity for a rally in soybeans.

China could be a wild card in this scenario. However, we must be realistic. President Trump has called for China to quadruple their soybean buying from the United States this year.  Quadrupling zero buying it is still zero buying as the Chinese have not been part of this soybean market. As we look ahead, we’re almost getting beyond that to save the day. They prefer buying all agricultural commodities without any geopolitical strings attached. Look for them to always buy soybeans from Brazil as their  preferred option.

Corn

     The 188.8 bushel per acre corn yield was almost on the crazy side. The question is going forward is this the high watermark for corn yield for the 2025 crop. When it was announced corn was down hard on the day but by the end of the week September corn actually gained a penny.  To some extent that tells us that the yield was dialed in but on the other hand not believed by traders.

Where corn ends up nobody knows but clearly, we have a huge crop and we need some type of new demand or fresh news to get this market going again. There had been talk about tassel wrap and pollination issues. However, that was lost in the avalanche of supply coming from USDA last week.  Corn exports to places like China would certainly be optimal in the next few weeks as there is still quite a bit of old crop in the pipeline.

The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 21.5 cents lower than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Do soybeans represent hope in this market and corn just the opposite? Well, we know soybeans are the great liars but always in the end tell the truth. There was a huge cut in the amount of soybean acres which helped boost this market even at a record deal prediction of 53.6 bushels per acre. It is entirely obvious if we go hot and dry for the next three weeks that yield prediction will be cut, giving hope for soybean prices.

Technically, it’s hard to tell whether we’re at a turning point for the soybean market. Soybeans have been bearish at least up to this point and there’s still an argument that they still are. Market action in the next week to 10 days should give some clues. As it is now, the cost of commercial carry for soybean contracts is dropping which might mean we’re getting into more bullish territory. However, the next two to three weeks of weather will be key and one of the first indicators might be basis levels in the American Midwest. Many producers are saying that the soybean yield is not there like corn yield is.

The September 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 20.25 cents be the November 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

It is an old story with wheat but is grown everywhere and there are surpluses almost everywhere making for near contract lows for the different wheat markets.   We need some fresh news and that might come in the Ukraine Russia area with the recent peace initiative, but then of course it may not. The Black Sea is producing lots of cheap wheat. The US dollar has been lower recently which always has the potential of helping US wheat exports. Needless to say, wheat is the cockroach of grains and that will likely continue.

 In Ontario wheat harvest is wrapping up in eastern Ontario and producers will soon be planning how many acres to plant in the fall of 2025. Usually, this has to do with harvest weather and there’s no reason to think that will change this year. However, with wheat prices below $6 a bushel on the old crop side it is not very profitable for many producers. This may impact the number of acres that are planted this fall.

     The Canadian dollar fluttering at .7243 US cents continues to add stimulus to Ontario grain prices. It is always hard to know exactly what is driving the Canadian dollar other than its inverse relationship with the US dollar. Recently, The US producer price index surged with its biggest rise in the last three years sparking a rally in the US dollar. This kept the Canadian dollar at bay. We also had lower job numbers in July which did trigger some speculation of a Bank of Canada rate cut. In other words, the Canadian dollar wasn’t going anywhere fast and has drifted down.  The ongoing tariff action against Canada from the United States continues to be a drag on the Canadian dollar.

     There is still lots of geopolitical tension to go around. We all know that the Ukraine Russia war has caused much angst in grain markets over the last three years. On August 15th U.S. President Donald Trump and President Putin met in an attempt to end that war. That diplomacy is ongoing, and we will see what happens.  At the end of the day, lasting peace would be good for agricultural production in that region. On the other hand, the war seems to be dialed into our trading algorithms.  It will continue to be an ongoing part of our grain marketing puzzle.

      As we look ahead, yes, we have tremendous crops growing in the field in the American corn belt.  However, the crop production picture in Ontario and Quebec is not as healthy as we go into September. As stated earlier, there is several areas in Ontario and Quebec that had drought this past season.  This should result in localized basis opportunities to price grain not only this fall but also into 2026.  Like always in this situation, basis sometimes can be messy.  Daily market intelligence will remain key in this situation.  Generally speaking, we can expect the Ontario crop to be lower than last year.  Some areas will be much lower than others.

    With September on the horizon, the challenge for Ontario grain farmers will be to sift through the noise of big crops south of the border while managing the uneven yield prospects at home. Basis levels will continue to tell the story locally, often providing marketing opportunities when futures values seem stuck in neutral. At the same time, tighter supplies in parts of Ontario and Quebec may yet offer farmers a chance at stronger prices as we move into the fall.  Risk management never grows old.  There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

     July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often impact the bigger crop in the field which also impacts prices. We are here now.  The crops look quite good.  The USDA NASS estimated 74% of the US corn crop look good to excellent on July 21st, which was 7 points better than a year ago. At the same time the soybean crop was estimated to look 68% good to excellent, which was equal to last year.  On July the 11th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.

      In this report the USDA reduced the 2025/2026 US corn crop by 115 million bushels down to 15.705 billion bushels. This was based on a corn yield 181 bushels per acre.  USDA also lowered the beginning stocks for the new crop 25 million bushels to 1.34 billion bushels. The ending stocks for the 2025/2026 corn crop are now projected to be 1.66 billion bushels which is down 90 million bushels from June.  Globally, corn production was left unchanged in Brazil and Argentina at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT respectively.

     On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre planting estimate into the supply and demand estimates. This resulted in a 5 million bushels decline in soybean production for the current crop to 4.335 million bushels.  This was based on a soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre unchanged from a month ago.  Brazil and Argentinian soybean production was left unchanged at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT respectively.  USDA also pegged US winter wheat production at 1.35 billion bushels down 3% from their June 1st forecast and down less than 1% from 2024.

                 On July 22nd corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.  September 2025 corn futures was at $3.99 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.18 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.25 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.49 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.91 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of July 22nd closed at $64.87/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $66.50/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.05/gallon, higher than the $2.00/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 22nd, 2025, was .7334 US, lower vs the .7350 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

     In Ontario combines have been rolling through the wheat.  Conditions have been pretty good so far as of July the 22nd with good yields and quality. However, as always it continues into August and producers will be hoping for open weather to aid harvest.  Wheat harvest can be a challenge with wet weather and problems at the grading table, but so far it looks like it’s a pretty good year in Ontario for wheat.

     Winter wheat is being harvested and other crops are growing well in the field with Ontario corn being slightly ahead of schedule versus soybeans depending on where you are in the province.  However, also on July 22nd there is unfortunate drought for many parts of central and eastern Ontario.  Rain is needed now.  Widespread fungicide application will surely be happening toward the end of July and into early August.  The good weather outside the drought areas in Ontario should benefit corn pollination. The difficult planting and replanting situation in the deep southwest of Ontario has soybeans trying to catch up.  Timely rains will be good for this.

      Ontario basis levels have increased since the last Market Trends report.  Ontario corn prices in eastern Ontario have rose above US replacement price levels and cash prices above $7.00 a bushel have been garnered especially going into Quebec from Ontario.  It is all a function of localized supply and demand as these prices are more reflective of historical eastern Ontario basis behavior.  However, basis has increased slightly in corn and soybeans in other parts of the province reflecting that time of year when old crop supplies are not as plentiful.  A robust export market into the EU has been helping. Ontario wheat prices are in flux, daily market intelligence on wheat prices this time of year is a must.

      Old crop corn basis levels are $1.60 to $2.54 over the September 2025 corn futures on July 22nd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.31 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.75 to $2.96 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.66 to $2.87 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are flux.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.21 bu. range. On July 22nd the US replacement price for corn was $6.37/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

     We all know it’s about the weather now. However, keep in mind that we are leaning on August 1st and part of the weather story is in the rear-view mirror, that being the late spring weather story and the July weather story. There is more going on here because it is a big, big world and geopolitics are part of that.  As it is, it seems like market algorithms have all that dialed in. However, you never know.

     181 bushel per acre corn yield from the USDA looms large.  There are even private forecasters who are saying it’s much above that. However, as it is, a yield in the higher 180s will make prices go down and if the yield turns out to be in the 170s prices will go up. We are now in the twilight zone what may happen.  Daily market intelligence will remain key.

     While potential for corn yields seems stratospheric, it doesn’t seem the same for soybeans. Yes, the crop looks really good now at 68% good to excellent the best since 2020.  Needless to say, November soybeans prices are rising above both the 20 day and maybe the 100 day moving averages, so it does show some resilience.  Of course, we know that August rains do make the American soybean crop. 

     We had said before that the geopolitical aspects of grain prices seem to be dialed in to the grain trading algorithms.  That seems to be the case especially with Ukraine and Russia which continues in a hot war.  On the other hand, there may be fresh news coming from trade agreements by the American administration toward China, Indonesia and other places in the Far East. This could provide a boost do both corn and soybean exports when the announcements are made.

Corn

Are there pollination issues in corn this July? It seems like there are always some pollination issues somewhere in the US corn belt but generally speaking there are no issues on July 22nd. However, the forecast is for hot and dry in another couple weeks.  It’s all a theory now. Weather can still be key with regard to forming what looks to be a record crop.

Keep in mind for market bulls, this is grasping at straws. 15.705 billion bushels of corn isn’t lying at this point. There might be a variation of the theme but we’re still looking at very big corn stocks building in the United States based on where we are now.  On the supply side, it’s true there still is some weather risk but it is declining.  This corn crop so far has been bulletproofed.

The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 18.75 cents lower than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

We all know that soybeans are the great liars, but of course that puts us in a precarious position. Hot and dry represents a difficult scenario for soybeans. For instance, the hot part doesn’t bother soybeans as much as it does corn, a testament to all the tropical soybeans that are grown in Brazil. However, dry periods in August will affect soybean yield at the same time timely rains will do the opposite. Clearly August weather will affect the end story with regard to soybean yield in 2025. 

It’s also important to keep in mind the soybeans have their own price story when compared with corn.  For instance, soybean oil has been on a bit of a tear higher since mid-June and this has been entirely helpful to soybean prices. This is related to the supply and demand for soybean oil as we know, the long-term US biodiesel policy is structurally bullish for soybean oil prices as well as soybeans.

The August 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 7 cents above the September 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

 Wheat

     It’s that time of year when hot and dry does mean something, but usually not for wheat at this stage. However, keep in mind but there’s a big difference between spring wheat and winter wheat with regard to impact. For instance, 73% of winter wheat had been harvested in the United States as of last Sunday. At the same time 87% of spring wheat was headed at the same time. So, hot and dry can still affect the wheat yield in the United States. It is always a double-edged sword as some wheat producers need that weather to harvest.  Wheat prices are just coming off their contract lows.  As it is, there is about a 900-million-bushel carryover in wheat in the United States. This makes it very difficult for wheat prices to go up.

     Clearly, the Canadian dollar in the 73 cent US range helps with Ontario wheat prices. This will continue into the future depending on what producers do with their wheat. It’s important to realize that there is any appreciation in the Canadian dollar after a trade agreement with the United States on August 1st, 2025, a Canadian loonie could appreciate. This would be a negative to Ontario wheat prices.  This balance between basis and futures is always apparent but might be particularly salient with regard to old crop wheat stored for better prices ahead.  An 80-cent loonie would ruin that scenario.

     The Canadian dollar continues to flutter in the 73 cent US range reflecting some relative strength even during a trade war with the United States.  As we all know United States and Canada are looking toward a trade and maybe a security agreement on August 1st which will be extremely significant not only for the greater Canadian economy but also the value of the Canadian dollar. If this trade agreement is successful, we could easily see the Canadian dollar go up to $0.76.  This could result in a 15 to 20 cent decline in the cash price of soybeans in Ontario. On the other hand, if there’s no trade agreement, we could see soybean prices go up with the decline of the Canadian dollar.

     On top of this is the condition of the US economy and how tariffs might affect that. At the present time the US dollar has been declining which always acts as a positive to the Canadian dollar. There is a lot of debate with regard to how the American economy might fare with higher tariffs. At the present time the US Federal Reserve is maintaining the status quo on interest rates with part of that reason likely to support the US dollar. However, there is much political conjecture at the present time with regard to the US Federal Reserve Chairman and the President of the United States. As we move ahead Ontario farmers will have to have a keen eye on this relationship and the resultant move between the United States and Canadian dollar.

      Big momentum is always a factor when it comes to our commodity markets and that is usually led by non-commercial interests. At the present time there is a net small, short position in the corn market and a small net long position in the soybean market as these interests jockey with their own expectations. Soybean prices are fighting upstream as the weather looks good, but everybody knows August is important. As we move ahead, these non-commercial interests will be instrumental in forcing the market one way or the other.

     At the present time there are some Ontario farmers who are struggling with drought especially in the north central and eastern Ontario areas. Keep in mind the drought ends when it rains, and it will rain.  It is also incredibly difficult to look at market prices at a time when your farm is in drought, but it seems nobody else is.  As we move ahead there are a plethora of market forces coming together which may bring a better day.  Yes, it’s all about the weather now for the moment as we wait to see what the August USDA WASDE report will predict.  Key will be to have your marketing plan focused.  Standing orders at your buyer can help.   Daily market intelligence will remain vital to capture good grain marketing opportunities.

The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

      It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn belt which may or may not impact what has been to this point very good crop in the United States. As of June 22nd, corn was rated 70% good to excellent and soybeans were 96% planted and 66% good to excellent.  Of course, it is a long way from the harvest finish line. On June 30th the USDA weighed in with their latest acreage numbers.

   The June 30th USDA acreage report is one of the bigger reports of the year.  This is where the USDA adjusts March 31st acreage estimates.  In the report USDA said farmers planted 95.2 million acres of corn this past spring which is a decline of about 100,000 acres from the March estimate. It is also down 7% from a year ago. Having said that, it is still the third largest acreage since 1944.  Corn stocks on June 1st, 2025, came in at 4.64 billion bushels which is down 7% from a year ago.

     On the soybean side of the equation the USDA reduced soybean acreage by 100,000 acres putting it down to 83.4 million acres this was 4% less than a year ago.  Both the corn and soybean estimates were within pre report estimates and the markets reacted accordingly. Soybean stocks as of June 1st, 2025, came in at 1.01 billion bushels which was up 4% from a year ago.  US wheat acreage was estimated at 45.5 million acres which was down 1% from a year ago.

                 On July 3rd corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.  Wheat futures were higher.  September 2025 corn futures was at $4.20 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.37 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.49 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.56 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.47 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.83 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of July 3rd closed at $66.50/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $72.98/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.00/gallon, higher than the $1.98/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 4th, 2025, was .7350 US, about the same as the .7354 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

Ontario is a big province and crop conditions can vary widely depending on where you are. At the present time on July the 7th very warm air has moved into Ontario which is helping crops catch up from a cooler start in late May and early June. There was some replanting of soybeans in the deep southwest up until the June 30th crop insurance deadline. At the same time other soybean crops which had advanced in other parts of the province we’re actually facing aphid pressure. It is the mixed bag.

Ontario wheat harvest is fast approaching but as of July the 6th there really hasn’t been any harvest activity.  The crop is approximately 2 weeks later than it was a year ago, but as always weather will have a determining factor on when combines start rolling through southwestern Ontario fields. The hot weather that is greeted us in July will certainly accelerate the harvest date.  As always, quality will be about most concerned when the crop is harvested.

Ontario basis levels have been stable since the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar at .7350 US has helped erode basis values since earlier this winter.  This has happened because the Canadian dollar has gained about $0.04 over this time against the US dollar. As always, it will have a direct effect on Ontario cash prices for grain. As we move into later July it will surely have an effect on cash wheat prices sold off the combine.  

    Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $1.70 over the September 2025 corn futures on July 4th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.36 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.64 to $2.85 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.61 to $2.80 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are flux.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.43 bu. range. On July 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.64/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

     It’s all about crop weather now.  It’s an old axiom but it is very true. We have big crops, and we also have big old crop supplies and at this point there’s only one way to take that down which is crop weather in July and August. We will be going into the critical corn pollination period in July and as we all know heat is not good for the corn during this. On the other hand, benign weather into August will set us up for more supply.  The trading algorithms have this all-dialed in.

     You might also say this for the geopolitical risk always associated with our commodity markets. The US dollar is at a three-year low which is always significant for US commodity prices. Part of this has to do with the sale of US bonds by other countries and the resulting decrease in U.S. dollar value. This has taken place because of the lack of confidence in some of the latest American administrations economic tariffs. However, The US is still the world’s biggest and richest economy, and this can never be negated.  They always take care of their American farmers, and this often results with the big crops continually produce regardless of prices.

The other big geopolitical events that continue the Ukraine and Russia war along with the problems in the Middle East with Iran and Israel. However, what we have seen is in the world big supplies, this hardly matters to our commodity markets.   Needless to say, you could never completely ignore it.  The sun beating down on American crops will likely trump that issue when it comes to our crop price movement.

     When you are in an oversupplied market it often can overshadow the big demand numbers that are underpinning it. For instance, USDA is expecting a corn crop of 15.820 billion bushels but keep in mind total usage is set for 15.460 billion bushels. In many ways, that is amazing and any hiccup in that narrative as we continue to move through the crop season will affect prices.  Oversupply has led to very cheap prices for grain.  That itself has built a lot of demand.

Corn

     It is the time of the year when new crop corn highs are often in or about to be met especially when you consider that we’re about to go into pollination for the US crop. However, so far, the high for corn prices came in February which is so unusual, and we have dropped about $0.65 a bushel since then. So, some fresh news especially regarding crop weather might be the only avenue to get some of that back.

     As of July, the 4th, keep in mind that the USDA is predicting corn production to come in at 15.820 billion bushels. That is a lot of corn, and it would not be surprising to see this number go over 16 billion bushels.  That reality would keep us into a tough marketing situation. On the other hand, we aren’t there yet, and the critical pollination awaits.

    The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 15.25 cents higher than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

     Are soybeans going to save the day? We surely hope so much will depend on August rains to affect soybean futures violently one way or the other. China is still important in the equation as they usually buy about 1/4 of American soybeans.  South America is coming off a very good crop so it is hard to tell whether American demand will pick up. As it is, the American administration is negotiating with the Chinese for a trade deal, after just finishing one with Vietnam.

Soybean oil has been a bit of a star in the soybean complex currently trying to break through 2025 highs.  American demand for their own soybean oil is structurally dynamic and growing. This will continue to serve as a long-term support or North American soybean prices.

       The August 2025 soybean contract is currently priced .16 cents above the September 2025 contract considered neutral to bearish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 17th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

     Wheat prices continues to confound as it is growing almost everywhere and there is no low supply of wheat as of July 2025. In fact, if we look back the highs in wheat so far were in February.  Wheat prices have dropped $1.50 since then.  The US dollar at three years lows should help the US wheat market which in turn should help us here in Ontario. However, it’s not quite as simple as that because at the moment we are where we are. Wheat prices simply are not hard spot now. 

     In Ontario as of July the 4th wheat harvest is still upcoming it is approximately a week to 10 days later than a year ago, as always wheat farmers are hopeful or a good crop. Quality concerns are always an issue with Ontario wheat producers still hoping for a dry window in the middle of July to get off to a good start.  The Canadian dollar continues to be a big part of Ontario wheat prices. 

     When we think of geopolitics, we usually don’t associate that with the value of Canadian dollar and the relationship between Canada and the United States. However, both the US and Canadian government have set as a goal some type of trade and security agreement in and around July 21st. This will have a definite effect on the value going forward on the Canadian dollar and could easily spring it toward $0.80 cents US if there is a successful agreement.  The resultant basis depreciation in Ontario will be palatable and it’s something that we need to consider as we move ahead.

     It’s always hard to know. However, the passage of the US “big, beautiful bill” will have big effects in the United States.  According to the Congressional Budget Office it adds roughly $2.4 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years. Others say that it will add over $4 trillion with other externalities coming into play. In other words, initially there will be a huge stimulus of government spending which might drive the US dollar down. When that happens, the Canadian dollar gains. Needless to say, this is a complex play no matter how you look at it from an economic standpoint. The effects on Canadian cash grain prices will likely be very real but are difficult to determine right at this time. It is all a theory now.

      As stated earlier, it’s all about the weather now going forward for our crop prices at least for the next three weeks. However, keep in mind you should always keep abreast of future spreads and what they’re saying. It can be complicated, but keep in mind for instance right now the January March 2026 soybean futures spread is covering 43% of the cost of commercial carry versus 46% last week.  In layman terms, this means the market is growing more bullish early next year for the crop you’re growing in the field now. With so many market factors to consider, this is just another one. However, it shows you how complex marketing can be. We need to capture profitable prices when they arise. Certainly 2025 has had a scarcity toward that.

      The challenge for farmers is always to separate the noise from what really matters, and in mid-July, that usually starts and ends with the weather. With the crop made in parts of the U.S. and just getting started in others, market direction remains uncertain. Throw in a volatile U.S. dollar, the passage of a multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bill, and shifting trade currents, and you’ve got a recipe for price movement that can change quickly. Here in Ontario, the wheat harvest will offer our first real test of local basis strength, while soybeans and corn stretch toward pollination and beyond. Daily market intelligence is essential to navigate it all — the crop in the field isn’t priced yet, and there will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

     It’s not the home stretch but we’re getting closer. The end of June going into July is always a critical period for crop development.  It can also be a gyrating time for grain markets as there is so much risk ahead in the growing season. As of June 9th, 97% of US corn has been planted which is 3 points ahead of the pace last year. At the same time 90% of the US soybeans have been planted which is 4 points ahead of where we were a year ago. So, we are off to the races, and we will see what happens.  The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on June the 12th.

   The June USDA report is often uneventful being ahead of the much bigger numbers that come in at the end of this month. This June report was no different.  USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels which reshuffled the corn balance sheet.  This set corn old crop stocks at 1.365 billion bushels a new crop corn ending stocks to 1.75 billion bushels.  The new crop forecast of 15.82 billion bushels based on the yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre remains the same.  The Brazilian and Argentinian corn crop remained the same at 130 MMTs and 50 MMTs respectively.

     USDA had soybean production the same as a month ago coming in at 4.34 billion bushels on a planted acreage estimate of 83.5 million acres. This is based on the US national yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. The Brazilian and Argentina and soybean crop was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.  88% of US winter wheat was headed out by June the 9th.

                 On June 13th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  July 2025 corn futures was at $4.44 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.43 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.69/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.54 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.43 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.34 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.45 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of June 13th closed at $72.98/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.49/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.98/gallon, lower than the $2.00/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 13th, 2025, was .7354 US, up vs the .7154 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

In Ontario things are going well depending on where you are situated. As of June 13th, pretty well all Ontario corn has been planted with early planted corn in southwestern Ontario in the V5-V6 stage.  Weather conditions in eastern Ontario have caused some uneven stands in some areas.  Soybean planting is almost done on the lighter Ontario soils, but it continues on heavier soils with much replanting in southwestern Ontario.

Two weather events with very heavy rain caused much replanting in South Lambton County and other parts of the clay belt in southwestern Ontario.  May was a difficult month for planting in these areas, cold and wet and farmers will be hoping the weather from now on will be kind. Wheat continues to advance with T3 fungicide application taking place across the province.

Despite the Canadian dollar gaining up two cents over the last 30 days the corn basis in Ontario increased slightly. This might be based on bigger exports to the EU with corn being shipped out. Old crop stocks in Ontario are getting tighter but of course this is all relative to future demand over the next few months until another harvest time. At the same time the increase in the Canadian dollar has caused a weakening in the soybean basis.  As always, the value of the Canadian dollar is the elixir on cash prices for soybeans and wheat in Ontario.

    Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $1.87 over the July 2025 corn futures on June 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.49 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.60 to $3.00 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.63 to $2.76 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.32 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.28 bu. range.     On June 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.45/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

Here we are, it’s that time of year when the rubber hits the road. mid-June to mid-July is often the time when the market decides that the crop is made.  We have the USDA report at the end of this month which will renew the acres we’ve been working with over the last several weeks. Any surprise in that report could cause market gyrations.  Also too, crop weather during this time often defines everything.

The United States and China are talking. Of course, they have a full-blown trade war going on between them with high tariff walls, soybeans being significant with regard to grain prices. Keep in mind in the first Trump administration there was a deal between China and the United States, but it took some time, and the market has been muted during the current talks.  However, with the increase in the renewable diesel RINs requirement on Friday from the EPA, the market turned around.  This will be a long-term benefit to American agriculture. It has the capability of redefining how much corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton will be grown and distributed throughout the United States.

If this news had come earlier, there is a real possibility the market would have tried to buy soybean acres back the spring. However, it was the opposite as soybeans giving it up to corn acres or at least that’s what we’ve been led to believe.  How will this manifest itself on June 30th when the USDA releases their acreage estimates? Of course, it’s hard to know but keep that 95.3 million acres in mind. Any big variation will lead to a pop either way.

Clearly, it’s also that time of the year when weather means everything. What its saying now is that the crop is made which is so unusual for mid-June, which usually represents a pretty good time to price new crop grain. So, if the market is right, here we are, but if it is wrong, we should see a run up on the other side. In any case, be aware of how this could change things

Corn

     The trendline yield from USDA for this year is 181 bushels per acre corn giving us a 1.75-billion-bushel corn ending stocks projection.  Keep in mind, that in the last six years we have not made trendline yields so it makes you wonder what is going to happen this year. As always, the weather in the next month will be key to the corn price equation.

     At the moment, everything is projected to be good. We got off to a great start and right now the crop really looks good but there is drier weather forecast for July. It’s all a theory now, and the funds are trading for the good crop. However, if things change toward the end of the month and hot and dry takes over, they will flip very quickly. 

    The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 16 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

     Soybean market got some good news Friday morning. The government announced new EPA renewable fuel volume obligations of 7.12 billion Rins in 2026 and 7.5 billion in 2027.  This was much higher than expected from industry recommendations earlier this year.  Soybean oil traded limit up on the move.

     This is incredibly important for soybean demand as it will increase soybean crush significantly. Also too, it helps restrict the import of used cooking oil which had been used to produce soybean diesel. In effect, it’s a big play on US value added agriculture that will help soybean demand almost immediately.

       The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced .5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

     Wheat is the whipping boy of agricultural prices with SRW Ontario cash values in the $6.25 range as of June the 13th. Interestingly enough, American wheat is now some of the cheapest in the world and this has boosted American exports. The Russian crop is about the same as last year, not quite as good helping keeping the status quo on wheat price. Keep in mind the geopolitical concerns happening now with Iran and Israel as well as Ukraine and Russia will always serve as a powder keg for wheat prices going forward.

     Ontario wheat continues to March toward the finish line generally speaking, the crop looks good but of course you never know with wheat. It is the only crop we as farmers we expose to four different seasons and quality is a big issue. At the present time there are issues with stripe in the wheat and producers will continue to watch this as we head into harvest.  The Canadian dollar gaining 2 cents over the last 30 days also hurt cash prices in Ontario. There is no question then Ontario wheat farmers will be looking for fresh news in the wheat market going into July.

The Canadian dollar has been on a winning streak of late. With its current value of .7354 US, we are a solid 4 cents above where it dropped to on February 8th after the announcement of tariffs.  This has had a mitigating effect on Ontario cash prices and if it continues there will be more of the same. The gain in value has been partly a reflection on the stability Canada got back after the federal election.  It will likely get even more so if there is some type of trade and security agreement with the United States.  Needless to say, the value of the Canadian dollar will continue to have a big effect on the value of Ontario cash prices especially for wheat and soybeans.

As farmers we’re always trying to balance all of these scenarios.  The bearish scenario looking out is if we do hit trendline yields and we have benign weather thru July and August we could easily be looking at increase in corn ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. Soybean stocks could easily go above 400 million bushels. This would put corn and soybean prices at the lows that they were last August sub $4.00 and sub $9.  Nobody wants to go there, but it’s something we should keep in mind.

This may or may not happen because there is a certain order of things in the grain market related to supply and demand. We know that supply has been winning the last few years. However, keep in mind that the geopolitical dynamics of the last few months are starting to come unhinged. The war between Iran and Israel has the potential to get much wider. The war in Russia in Ukraine remains. We cannot predict how these conflicts might affect grain movement in the near future if things go awry.

The challenge for all Ontario farmers is to balance all of these many marketing factors as we look toward the end of the month when the USDA weighs in again with the numbers regarding how much corn and soybeans are out there. This is a very important time to have standing market orders ready.  Daily market intelligence will always remain key. As we move ahead, there will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It is full speed ahead. It is that time of year when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. In fact, good weather has made for great progress that may ultimately lead two bin busting crops. As of May, the 12th 62% of the US corn had been planted 15% ahead of last year’s pace.  However, as we all know we have been here before and one never knows how the final yields will be at this point in the crop year. Needless to say, a good start is a good thing and could likely lead to even bigger crops in 2025. The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on May the 12th.

USDA predicted some big crops in their May 12th report. The USDA estimated new corn crop production at 15.82 billion bushels this year based on a yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre. This was above pre report estimates. The planted acreage is set at 95.3 million acres up 5% from a year ago. Total domestic usage is set at 12.785 billion bushels and corn exports for new crop are projected at 2.675 billion bushels.  Globally, USDA estimated Brazil’s corn production to be at 130 MMT with Argentina coming in at 50 MMT.

On the soybean side of the ledger new crop soybean production was estimated at 4.34 billion bushels using a 52.5 bushel per acre national average yield. This was based on a US planted soybean acreage of 83.5 million acres. Total usage for soybeans domestically in the United States is set at 4.415 billion bushels with the forecast ending stocks of 295 million bushels. From a global perspective, USDA is estimating the next Brazilian soybean crop to be at 175 MMT and Argentina to come in at 48.5 MMT.  US wheat production is set to increase in the new crop year to 1.921 billion bushels an increase from 1.858 billion bushels last May. There was also an increase globally in world wheat production for this coming year.

On May 16th soybean futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  Corn and wheat futures were lower.   July 2025 corn futures was at $4.43 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.35 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.50/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.35 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.25 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.73 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $5.87 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $62.49/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $64.68/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.00/gallon, lower than the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on May 16th, 2025, was .7154 US, up vs the .7217 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

Ontario crops are being planted quickly this spring. Corn and soybean were planted starting in late April and continuing as of May the 16th. Planting was somewhat delayed in eastern Ontario versus southwestern Ontario but it’s catching up as wet weather is affecting parts of southwestern Ontario. However, it must be said that we are off to a good start which should weigh on new crop basis levels as we move ahead in 2025.

The 1.1 million acres of Ontario winter wheat looks good and will surely be heading out in the first couple weeks of June where another fungicide application will be made to many of these fields. Wheat prices for delivery on this crop in July are currently around $6.24 a bushel which is exciting to almost no one. At these current levels it might be hard to sustain Ontario wheat production at this level going into 2026.

One of the reasons that Ontario wheat prices are at this level is the value of Canadian dollar currently at .7154 US which is up from month ago. This is always good for Ontario cash prices to have a lower dollar and it continues.  Despite shipping lots of Ontario corn to Europe basis levels have softened into mid-May for Ontario corn. However, it is only by a few cents a bushel. Ontario soybean basis levels have actually been maintained or increased slightly probably due to the drop of a penny in the Canadian dollar. As always, Ontario soybean and wheat cash prices will be most sensitive to a Canadian dollar change.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.10 to $1.49 over the July 2025 corn futures on May 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.34 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.98 to $3.20 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.84 to $3.11 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.17 bu. range. For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.24 bu. range. On May 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.62/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

It is a very volatile time, but we are at the lower end of the price spectrum. Clearly, as we go forward there is so much risk on the table with regard to how this US crop will fare in 2025.  Keep in mind last year December corn dove down to about $3.95 a bushel during the summer, and it is not without a path down to $3.70 this year. However, we all know that things rebounded for farm prices later. We are still early in the game with regard to how crop weather will impact our crop prices going forward.

The timing is now for seasonality in the grain market.  For instance, we know the prices are at the lower end now, but we also know that for new crop marketing mid-June is usually the best time to contract corn and that is coming. The same can be said for soybeans although that is a little bit later as August is so important to pod set in the beans. Keep abreast of the markets very closely over the next month and have market standing orders ready. History tells us will usually see price appreciation.

It is also no secret the geopolitics is playing a big part in grain movement throughout the world in 2025.  Tariffs from the United States are certainly affecting not only grain movement in the United States and Canada but also around the world especially into China. Our American friends might think of this as shuffling the deck with grain going other places, but often times that means replacing Canadian grain in our traditional markets.

It is difficult to see an overly bullish scenario from a farmer perspective because as farmers we always want prices to go higher. Keep in mind that at these relatively low levels over the last 18 months grain demand has been building. Cheap makes that much of a difference. What it will mean going ahead is that if there is even a slight reduction in production in the United States this year it will cause price appreciation. Needless to say, marketing needs to be refocused constantly.

Corn

King corn has a bit of a problem. We are near contract lows in fact December corn is within six cents of a contract low as of May the 16th and the September contract actually reached a contract low.  Of course, a lot of this crop which could have been contracted for way over $5 last winter. As it is now, here we are.

As always with this time of year, it is a very fluid situation. With the USDA predicting 95.3 million acres of corn at 181 bushels per acre any movement in these numbers will cause gyrating ending stocks. For instance, the new crop ending stock prediction as of now is 1.8 billion bushels, if the yield goes lower this year it could get down to 1.3 billion bushels. Consequently, if the yield is higher than 181 which is probably entirely unlikely, we go higher. Crop weather, as always will be key in this discussion.

The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 20.75 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Conab and the Argentinian crop rating agency increased old crop soybean production in their last report. The Argentinian agency put Argentinian soybeans up 117 million bushels and Conab raised Brazilian production by 20 million bushels.  Clearly, big crops are getting bigger, and this will likely weigh in the market. However, keep in mind that American soybean acreage number could go lower and a corresponding decrease in yield this year will send ending stocks down even farther. It is a mixed bag.

An interesting aspect of soybean demand is American biofuel demand which is subject to government regulation. On May 15th they looked like these regulations were going to be lowered for soybeans and that caused a limit decrease in soybean oil pressuring soybean prices. However, the Americans have actually used more soybeans for that mandate than had been planned for and government’s final decision on this is yet to be made. Simply put, it’s probably a good thing for soybean demand and a good thing for soybean prices all in.

The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 4.5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral to bearish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat prices have always had a hard time in the last few years of finding a friend. Wheat prices are off their contract lows but there still at very low levels as we head into June. In fact, wheat production in the United States is set to increase which just adds to the moribund nature of eastern Canadian wheat prices.  The question at a certain point is how low are low prices or how low is low? At a certain point you would think that these low prices would increase demand for wheat which at some point might help. That might be a long wait, in the meantime we will welcome a Black Swan for the wheat market. 

Even though the Ontario wheat crop looks good at this point we all know there’s lots of risk ahead. Wheat is one of the only crops that we subject to four different crop seasons and the risk doesn’t stop there as you can lose the crop on the grading table.  For Ontario farmers, looking ahead we hope the weather will be kind to the wheat. Quality will always be important as we get closer to harvest time. Hopefully by then prices will have improved. The Canadian dollar in the 71-cent range will continue to help Ontario wheat prices.

In Canada the April 28th federal election is over with a new Liberal Minority government.  Regardless of political affiliation, one thing Canadians are hoping for is successful negotiation over tariffs with the United States. However, it is very hard to know how things will change looking into 2025 especially with the steel, aluminum and auto tariffs combined with the fentanyl tariffs still with us.  The new Prime Minister has not necessarily promised an easier road ahead.  We will have to wait to see what will happen.

The Canadian dollar dropping back to .7154 cents US has actually been helpful or Ontario and Quebec cash grain prices. However, as we all know the Canadian dollar is a thinly traded currency on world markets, but it is very important to us. As we move ahead it will likely be subject to sell offs depending on the attitude of the American administration toward Canada. At the present time, nobody knows where that will be even though recently the new Prime Minister got together with the American president to set the tone for the future. Nothing was resolved and in fact the 51st state thing continues to catch wind in some parts of the United States. This surely will continue to dog the value of the Canadian dollar within the next few months.

The focus here in Ontario over the next month will surely remain to get this crop planted. If everything goes by the script Ontario will have an even bigger corn crop this year than we did a year ago. This should weigh on new crop basis values as the weeks and months go by. At the same time if we run into “hot and dry” at the wrong time that could change everything from an Ontario basis pricing value. There are no benchmarks of information to look for other than the daily exercise of reading market intelligence.  Rain makes grain in the futures market and to some extent it does as well in Ontario.

As it is, we have been here before, seen even lower prices with worst prospects. The truth is we live in a farming world where things are constantly fluid with change being our only constant. The same is so in our grain market world and it will be in 2025. We still have all the geopolitical problems in Ukraine, Russia, China and elsewhere. Key will always be for the Ontario producer to balance all of these pricing factors and capture market opportunities. At the end of the day, there will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

     April and May are always a busy month on the farm whether that be in Ontario or in the greater North American corn belt.  Planters are rolling and auto steer buttons are being pressed as weather is improving and acres are being planted.  As of April, the 13th, 6% of the US corn crop and 3% of the US soybean crop in the ground.  It’s early of course but it is a start, and those numbers will certainly be rising in the weeks to come as we go into May.  Earlier, on April the 10th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.

     In this report there was a change in demand for corn, but the production numbers and old crop carryout numbers held their status quo.  On the demand side of the equation feed and residual use was 5.75 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last Market Trends report.  Ethanol usage was the same as last month and total domestic corn usage was forecast at 12.64 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last report.  Corn exports were up 100 million bushels to 2.550 billion bushels with old crop ending stocks down 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion bushels.

     It was a quiet report on the soybean side of the equation. For instance, the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels.  Globally, the USDA actually boosted ending stocks by 1.06 MMT, to 122.47 MMT.  The Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production was left unchanged at 169 MMT and 49 MMT respectively.   On the wheat side of the ledger US imports rose 10 million bushels to 150 million bushels. Wheat exports were down 50 million bushels to 820 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were up 27 million bushels to 846 million bushels.

                      On April 18th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  May 2025 corn futures was at $4.82 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.66 bu.  The May 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.36/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.32 bu. The May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.06 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.33 a bushel.

     The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $64.68/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $61.99/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, the same as recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

     The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 18th, 2025, was .7217 US, up vs the .7034 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%.

     In Ontario the 1.1 million acres of wheat is being side dressed with nitrogen as we go into the end of April.  The weather has been somewhat unusually cool but precipitation has been limited and this has led too much progress being done on the nitrogen. At the same time there is some corn planted in Ontario in the deep south west. However, this is very limited in scope and done on some of the very lighter soils. As we reached the end of April with good weather corn planting will be widespread across the province.

     Basis levels for grains have been maintained or eroded slightly from the last Market Trends report.  There is still lots of old crop corn around in Ontario, but it is being actively shipped out of the province into export markets in the United Kingdom and Europe. The basis levels have been slightly affected by the increase in the Canadian dollar of approximately $0.03 over the last month. As always, this has a greater effect on the cash price of soybeans and wheat in Ontario.

     The value of the Canadian dollar will likely remain the biggest fixture in Ontario grain basis for the immediate future. However, keep in mind that basis levels change in Ontario depending on the amount of crops sold as well as exports and domestic demand. Further to that, as we look out much further crop size in Ontario and crop health will affect basis levels as we go on through the year.  Producers need to be vigilant of cash grain basis levels and their seasonal tendencies.

    Old crop corn basis levels are $1.05 to $1.59 over the May 2025 corn futures on April 18th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.35 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.38 to $3.15 over the May 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.52 to $3.12 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.43 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.68 bu. range.     On April 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.72/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

     Increasingly, it’s about the weather. I know that this is an old story, but it still matters always.  At the present time we have a wet outlook in the eastern corn belt and a much drier outlook in the western corn belt. However, it is early and it’s really not affecting things too much with regard to prices. Even very dry and warm Kansas is not pushing wheat prices higher. Needless to say, let’s get to the end of May and weather forecasts will likely become even more telling for future price direction.  This must always be in the back of producers minds.

     Keep in mind that weather is very important but also this is 2025 and we have the biggest trade war ongoing in our memory. We do not know the next move in the trade war, but we can easily surmise that American farmers will be protected like they were the last time around in the first Trump administration.  It’s likely there will be government cheques written to the farmers which will be positive for US grain production and negative to price.  In Ontario and Quebec that will be bearish news for grain prices.

     It might be April in Ontario but keep in mind that we are harvesting soybeans in Argentina and Brazil.  The Argentinian soybean harvest is approximately 5% complete as of April the 14th. This typically accelerates pretty quickly in April and ends in early May.  This Argentinian crop has been rated 81% good to excellent so we’ll need to keep abreast of harvest results in the next few weeks. It was hot and dry earlier and this may manifest itself in a little bit of a deterioration in this crop.

      We should not ignore the corn rally that had taken place recently. Looking back at harvest time market sentiment was pretty poor and envisioning $6 corn in our future was so far away.  However, the reality was we did see quite a price appreciation after harvest and in some ways that continues as corn demand is extremely strong and basis values have been rising in the United States.  In Argentina the corn harvest is continuing with 28% of it being harvested as of April the 16th.  USDA has placed its estimate at 49 MMT with some Argentinian agencies slightly lower.

Corn

     On March 28th corn futures were $4.42 a bushel but on April the 11th about 11 trading days later it reached a high of $4.90 a bushel. In terms of a rally this was extremely impressive and there were lots of farmers selling’s $5.00 cash corn for July in many locations in the United states.  The question is can we get to $5 futures in December corn? 

     Well, the USDA said on March 31st Americans will plant 95.3 million acres of corn. However, if you mix some bad weather into this will we get there?   Anything less than that will certainly create the possibility for price movement into the $5 area for December 2025 corn. Simply put, we are at the start of the growing season and there’s lots of risk ahead and with that lots of possibility of price volatility.

    The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 6.75 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 35th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

     Keep in mind the USDA predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans for this crop year. That is 4% less than last year and with that there should be greater risk of lower soybean supplies especially if we have hot and dry weather come to us in August. However, we are so far away from that now.  Both corn and soybean futures have had a tailwind pushing them lately. It’s hard to say whether that will keep up or not.

     We all know that tariffs have been tough on soybean prices however when China announced tariffs on American soybeans, we did see a rise of approximately $0.75 in soybean futures. It’s hard to substantiate that with any type of common-sense intuitive credibility. However, we know that markets hate uncertainty and maybe that’s why it happened in that way. Needless to say, even though much will depend on our growing season with regard to soybean prices, the bad geopolitics against soybeans remain.  We will move ahead both looking at growing conditions and any other geopolitical moves by the United States, China and Brazil.

       The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 9.75 cents below the July 2025 contract considered neutral to bullish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

     It is dry in American wheat country. Kansas is very dry and it has been almost hot in some places.   You would think at some point it would have an effect on wheat prices. However, so far the market has yawned with wheat not going up in a similar fashion as corn and soybeans.  As per usual, any particular concern with the wheat prices are always undercut by wheat prices in the Black Sea area. Russian and Ukrainian wheat is at a discount to everybody else and this will be a continuing challenge.

     Ontario wheat prices continue to reflect the futures values which are at a low ebb.  The Canadian dollar gaining 3 cents over the past month has also been a challenge for Ontario wheat prices. Wheat can always be a difficult crop to price especially with its production challenges. However, if a rally comes soon, it may be the chance for market orders to hit. As it is, the Ontario wheat crop looks pretty good as of April the 18th.

     In Canada we have a federal election going on which will take place on April the 28th.  It might seem a long time ago now but there has been much criticism and aggression from the new American administration which was very negative for the Canadian dollar starting in January when it dipped under $0.70 US. Recently, during the federal election campaign the criticism has grown more muted, and this has resulted partly in the Canadian dollar gaining about 3 cents against the US dollar. However, much of that gain had more to do with American dollar weakness fueled by the erratic tariff trade action from the United States.

      It’s still very unclear how this is all going to work out especially with Canada where we face 25% tariffs on our aluminum and steel as well as automobiles, and 10% on potash and oil.  Earlier on April the 2nd the US president announced new tariffs for almost every country in the world.  Equity markets reacted very negatively and there was some pullback from the American administration for another 90 days.  However, in a very unusual circumstance the US bond market saw selling in US treasuries, a characteristic of a lack of confidence in the US economy. This unusual situation might have led to the 90-day reprieve.

      It is also hard to say because nobody can predict the direction of the US President.  However, the US dollar did reach a three-year low which is usually always good for agricultural futures prices. This surely may have affected things in the recent corn and soybean rally.  Unfortunately, wheat did not catch fire on that bit of good news, but of course wheat is wheat.  As we move ahead it will be very important for Ontario farmers to keep abreast of the value of the US dollar because it affects our cash values at home as well as those futures values on the Chicago Board.

     Keep in mind as we move ahead into May and June that seasonality becomes even more important. Typically, in these months we do see price appreciation and generally speaking we see good marketing opportunities for both old crop and new crop grain. It’s important in that regard to have some market orders set at prices that you deem reasonable and profitable. The market will be very fluid going through the next 8 weeks and daily market intelligence will remain key to keeping your marketing plan dynamic. At the end of the day, there will be many market opportunities ahead.   

The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.