It is that time of year again. In many ways August represents the time for the stretch drive in crop development as soybeans need moisture to set pods and corn needs some moisture to finish. It has been somewhat of an uneven year in many areas within the greater North American corn belt. There has been lots of dryness and heat as well as too much rain in some areas. However, as we head into late August it looks like the crop is a good one coming into September. On August 9th the USDA estimated the US corn crop at 61% good to excellent at full 11 percentage points below last year’s 72%. Soybeans were rated at 61% good to excellent, six percentage point below last year’s 68%. A little bit of benign weather going forward and we’ll be able to bring this crop home. The USDA came out with their latest WASDE report on Wednesday August the 12th.

Some of the biggest news from the USDA report had to do with an increase in planted acreage for both corn and soybeans. The USDA estimated an additional 1.4 million acres for both corn and soybeans. This boosted corn acres up to 96.7 million acres and increased production to 16.013 billion bushels. This happened despite a drop in yield by 2.3 bushels per acre at 180.7 bushels per acre. This put corn ending stocks for 2026 and 2027 projected at 1.653 billion bushels down from 1.79 billion bushels last month. If this yield potential is realized the US will have the second largest corn crop on record this year.

Soybeans got the additional 1.4 million acres which translates to 4.519 billion bushels using a trendline yield estimate of 52.7 bushels per acre. This is on planted acreage of 86.8 million acres with harvested acreage at 85.5 million acres. If this comes to fruition we will have the largest American soybean crop in history. New crop US ending stocks came in at 320 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production at 186 MMT and Argentina at 50 MMT. USDA estimated total US wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels a slight cut from the July report.

On Aug 14th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures were at $4.59 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.83 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.92 bu. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.74 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.78 a bushel with the July 2027 contract closing at $7.10 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of Aug 14th, 2026, closed at $82.40/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $89.31/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.23/gallon, higher vs the $2.19/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 14th, 2026, was .7207 US, higher vs the .7096 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

In Ontario any drought in the deep southwest was broken by early August and now as of August 14th soil moisture across the province has been exceptional to excessive in some areas. This is meant that crops are developing under ideal conditions without the drought stressors from July. Labour Day is still 3 weeks out and producers will be hoping for more benign ideal weather heading into early September. Crops could really benefit.

Wheat harvest is approximately 96% completed according to an estimate from the Grain Farmers of Ontario as of August the 13th. It was the tale of two halves as West of Toronto the harvest was pretty good with good quality during the dry period of late July. However, in eastern Ontario it has been a much tougher battle as rainy weather has led to downgrades and challenges in the field. A new pest called the orange wheat blossom midge has been identified in some Ontario wheat fields, which has led to some surprisingly lower wheat yields in some areas.

Basis levels for grains are lower than they were three weeks ago. To a large extent this has to do with the Canadian dollar up about a cent and a half in the last three weeks. For crops like soybeans and wheat in Ontario that always makes a huge effect on cash basis values, not so much for corn. As we head into September we’ll have to have a close watch on the corn basis with regard to any early market.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.75 to $2.04 over the September 2026 corn futures on Aug 14th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.65 to $1.94 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.82 to $4.20 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.50 to $3.75 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of Aug 14th are approximately $8.00. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.41/bu. range. On Aug 14th the US replacement price for corn was $6.98/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The USDA did provide a bit of a surprise in August when they gave us a cut in yield but more acres. At the end of the day, we still expect the second largest corn crop in history and the largest soybean crop in history. The tone should be bearish, but it is not. Headlines for the moment are driving this market and with a 1.653-billion-bushel carryout for next year there is support underneath the corn complex.

The rally started previous to the USDA report when news came of the Ukrainians bombing the biggest Russian export grain facility in the Black Sea. At the same time the Russians are bombing Ukrainian port facilities. As per usual, in war truth is always the first casualty. However, these are not the headlines that grain trading algorithms want. There is just too much uncertainty to send prices for the moment south.

Usually, a lower crop yield estimate from USDA in August versus July means the crop is getting smaller. However, there has been very good rainfall across the American Midwest through August. In fact, rainfall has been so much in some areas that flooding is a concern. So, depending on crop ratings you could actually see an increase in yield predicted in the September report which will impact prices. In other words, weather still matters going into September and we could see a yield bump. It is not hot and dry, it’s cooler and more wet. That often can mean a supercharged yield for soybeans in the United States as well as in eastern Canada.

Keep in mind that despite our grain algorithms insatiable appetite for headline news, fundamentals still matter. The corn stocks/use ratio is at 10.1% which is quite low and combining this with a lower new crop carryout number of 1.653 billion bushels can only be seen as resilient for prices. This, even though it is the second largest corn crop on record. Demand is strong, very strong and it needs to be maintained.

Corn

We are looking at the second largest the corn crop in U.S. history with last year’s crop being the biggest. Intuitively, that just should mean lower prices, but demand has been very strong. There is even the possibility of Chinese buying in corn which would be an added dimension to this demand complex.

On August 13th the Rosario Grain Exchange and CONAB raise Argentina and Brazil corn production to a record 70.5 MMT and 143 MMT, respectively. That, coupled with the fact that Argentine corn is the world’s cheapest, adds to the big corn supply situation. The Argentine harvest has now advanced to 77% done. South American production should never be negated, and these big corn numbers are all part of the equation.

The September 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 24.5 cents lower than the December 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

It is an old axiom that soybeans are made in August. So, despite some of the bullish talk coming from the corn and wheat complex, beans have caught some of that wave. However, it cannot be negated that these plentiful rains especially in the central and eastern part of the corn belt could easily boost the yield from 52.7 upward in the next USDA report.

In recent market action soybeans have been a bit of an onlooker to corn and wheat. However, there is still the specter of Chinese demand which has been very good for prices. They have been in the market buying approximately about 8 MMT of the 25 MMT committed to earlier. Expect more news of this especially with the upcoming visit of President Xi to the United States on September 24th.

The September 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15 cents below the November contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 29th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The headlines in the wheat market which are driving algorithms are feeding from the news from the Black Sea where both Russian and Ukrainian grain export facilities have been compromised by war. In fact, in Ukraine they are looking to export about 30MMT of corn, wheat and other oil seeds to get ready for the upcoming corn harvest. That is creating a bottleneck affecting everything. Wheat prices are largely benefiting from these issues in that part of the world. It’s all very fluid it could stop very quickly or vice versa.

These problems in world markets have been a boon to Ontario wheat producers who saw wheat prices sore almost to $9 a bushel during harvest. This is approximately $3 more than a year ago. In fact, many producers have sold wheat $1.50 to $2.00 more than a year ago and it has mostly been based on the problems in the Black Sea with futures spiking. As per usual, a Canadian dollar fluttering in the 70 and 71 cent level US has boosted Ontario cash prices. With wheat futures spiking it has had an acceleration effect on upward price movement.

The Canadian dollar simply matters especially for Ontario cash grain prices. On August 14th the noon rate for the loonie was 0.7207 US. This represented the third straight weekly gain for the currency. This is the highest it has reached since June 3rd when it was 72.12 US cents. Of course, this hasn’t been a monumental move, but the US dollar has been losing some momentum, and oil prices are helping depending on what’s happening in the Iran war. Needless to say, currency variations impact the demand for Ontario agricultural commodities and slight changes in this currency can cause 10 to $0.20/bu volatility in cash grain prices very quickly. That’s where standing orders for cash grain price levels can come in very helpful. As per usual, there is always another layer of marketing management considering both the value of the Canadian currency and grain futures prices.

We are moving into a time in September when we will have actual harvest results out of the United States and later on from Ontario. The USDA reducing the yield of the big US corn crop is significant and we will see as we go forward whether this is substantiated by actual harvest results. We will also have the September USDA come out and it will be significant what they say after the beneficial rains that we’ve seen in August. Intuitively, you would think that soybeans would add yield and maybe even corn. However, this is 2026 with continual mini–Black Swan events coming out of the Black Sea and other places. Volatility probably is our only certainty.

In Ontario we need to bring this crop home. Generally speaking, the crops do look good across Ontario even though some areas have had enough rain while others might have had too much. However, we don’t have the devastating drought in eastern Ontario which we had a year ago. This will affect cash markets going forward. Weather surely will also be a key factor in the next 4 weeks.

In those four weeks Ontario producers will need to continue to hone their grain marketing plans. Specifically, in front of harvest we need to recalculate the costs of storing grain and treat them as an opportunity cost. Just because the bins shine on days with a beautiful autumn sun, doesn’t necessarily mean they should be filled. There are choices to be made. Key is always good planning and daily market intelligence. Risk management never gets old. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It is a critical time of the year in grain markets. In many years mid to late July is a time where the market has already decided where this crop is going. 2026 might be a different year. Widespread hot and droughty weather in Western Europe as well as the threat of the same in North America is sending nervousness throughout the grain complex. On top of this we have all the same geopolitical problems in Ukraine and Russia as well as Iran adding to the uncertainty. This is the backdrop as we head into August. On July 10th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.

The July USDA WASDE report estimated corn production to come in at 16 billion bushels up from 15.995 billion bushels in June. This was based on a yield which remained at 183 bushels per acre with planted acreage at 95.3 million acres. This remains the second largest corn crop on record if it comes to fruition. New crop ending stocks were lowered 125 million bushels down to 2.02 billion bushels. Corn usage in the United States was increased 50 million bushels from June putting it at 16.255 billion bushels.

USDA is predicting the largest soybean crop In U.S. history. The estimate is 4.475 billion bushels with the trendline yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre planted on 85.4 million acres. US new crop ending stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels with old crop stocks coming in at 330 million bushels. USDA left Brazil’s production unchanged at 180 MMT and Argentina at 50 MMT. Total US wheat production is set at 1.536 billion bushels which is down slightly from last month and the smallest wheat crop on record.

On July 24th corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures were at $4.64 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.87 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures was at $12.53 bu. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.78 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $7.14 a bushel with the September 2027 contract closing at $7.46 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of July 24th, 2026, closed at $89.31/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $68.78/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.19/gallon, higher vs the $2.17/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 24th, 2026, was .7096 US, marginally higher vs the .7042 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

In Ontario generally speaking crops are doing excellent. However, as always there are regional variations with extreme drought in some areas of the deep southwest and south-central Ontario. Eastern Ontario has had much better moisture conditions than they did a year ago. As of the 24th of July, rainfall is needed in many areas of the southwest as corn is roping up and soybeans in some cases are wilting. However, there is still a long way of the growing season to go, and rains would cure much of this. As it is, with normal rainfall Ontario should be looking at good crops this fall.

Wheat harvest continues across the province with good to excellent yields and quite good quality. Very dry conditions in the deepest part of southwestern Ontario made for a good harvest. However, other areas were not as lucky, and it was more challenging to get wheat dried down in the field. However, it continues in eastern and north central Ontario. So far there are very few quality issues.

Basis levels for grains have stayed relatively steady since the last Market Trends report. This is partly due to the relative parity in the value of the Canadian dollar versus what it was three weeks ago at .7042 US. As always, a low Canadian dollar is the stimulus for the Ontario grain cash market. Corn basis levels have been a little stronger and as we go into August that may continue.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.65 to $2.38 over the September 2026 corn futures on July 24th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.65 to $1.94 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $4.34 to $4.70 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.89 to $4.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of July 24th are approximately $8.25. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.91/bu. range. On July 24th the US replacement price for corn was $7.16/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

Things are all coming together to move markets higher. We have a confluence of issues that are unusual to come together at one time. What we have is the hot and dry heat dome and drought into Western Europe with the possibility of that also manifesting itself in North America. At the same time, we have the Iran US war which is pressuring the oil market which in turn is dragging grains up with it. All of this happening at the same time is unusual for this time of year.

Keep in mind where we are seasonally with grain markets. The last week in July is usually one when grain markets put in a top and drop into the fall time. That happens about 85% of the time but this year might be different. We might be into a contra seasonal where the crop is getting smaller, as do ending stocks and the price usually goes higher into the fall. The timing this year seems critical.

So, what does this mean? You can make the argument that we have time here to decide which type of market we are in and if you believe prices are going up because forces are coming together to do that, market your grain appropriately and hedge both the downside and upside. That means different things to different farmers and that’s OK, just recognize this current grain environment is incredibly volatile based on the grain fundamentals and our geopolitical concerns.

As always, this time of year, weather is such a big concern. Keep in mind, the super El Nino is still out there and affecting crop development worldwide. In a El Nino year Brazil is supposed to be dry. Between Brazil and Argentina, they produced twice as many soybeans as the United States and if El Nino manifests itself in a big way, there could be some real price fireworks.

Corn

The drought in Europe has had an effect on the corn market. The Europeans produce about 2.3 billion bushels of corn and import about 800 million every year. This means that they will probably be importing more corn this year which has obvious implications for Ontario corn exports.

Keep in mind that these drought concerns whether they be in Europe or the United States are pushing up the price of corn, but it also is reacting to the price of oil. The ongoing tension in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz will continue to have an effect on the price of corn.

The September 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 22.5 cents lower than the December 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans are at contract highs as of July 24th. Of course, this is good news with anybody marketing soybeans but keep in mind these contracts can run very fast with high daily limits. Post those standing market orders optimistically, as they could be hit very quickly.

Soybean prices have also been supported by Chinese buying. Yes, they have finally come into the market, and it has been timely for price as US beans are very competitive against South American soybeans. There is a September meeting between President Trump and President Xi, and this may result in even more buying.

The August 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 7.75 cents above the September contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 37th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The spectre of drought and heat in Europe has had an effect on the wheat market. Keep in mind that all countries in Europe makes it the largest wheat exporter in the world. Combine this with the problems of compromised grain movement in the sea of Azov amid the ongoing war and you have lots of uncertainty. Combine this with the ongoing super El Nino and there could be production problems in other places such as Australia.

In Ontario the wheat crop has been relatively good news with good yields and quality. Quality is always a problem with wheat but for whatever reason this year including the good management of Ontario wheat producers that is not much of a concern. What has been good has been a cash price rally in wheat at harvest time which has pushed prices up over $2.00 a bushel higher than a year ago.

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the $0.71 level US which is helping Ontario grain prices. It is always a constant with regard to cash prices and can act as a buffer but in a grain environment where futures are rising significantly it can also act as a supercharger to cash prices. This is the environment that we are in now. If grain futures prices get spooked by heat domes and geopolitical concerns further, it will have an accelerating effect on Ontario cash grain values.

The Canadian dollar is a thinly traded currency, but it has recently been affected by the aggressive nature of the American administration. President Trump has announced 50% tariffs on an assortment of Canadian goods going into the United States starting possibly on August the 19th. Canadians were gobsmacked by this move and so was the government. Serious trade negotiations are about to commence. Regardless of why it happened this is the type of geopolitical concern that really affects the value of the Canadian dollar. Farmers need to be concerned and watchful over the next several weeks to see where the Canadian dollar goes.

With all of this going on it is important to not be crossways with the trend, and the trend is up for prices. However, in this environment volatility is usually running wild. That yet may happen especially depending on a heat dome moving in as well as geopolitical concerns in Iran and Ukraine and Russia. This is all happening without a Black Swan event, but yet again a Black Swan can always happen and with that, we always have to be ready.

Keep in mind that August is always the month that determines soybean yield historically. Also keep in mind, that soybeans are the great liars but at the end of the day always tell the truth. So, they will need rain, just like we need in stretches across southern Ontario. The challenge for Ontario farmers is to hone their marketing plans in this growing bullish grain environment. Have those standing market orders ready and if they hit, set some more even more optimistically. At the same time risk management never grows old. Hedging our risks is always a good thing. At the end of the day, there will be many marketing opportunities. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It has been a solidly good spring in the American Midwest with no major planting issues. On June 29th USDA estimated 67% of the US corn crop was good to excellent while soybeans we’re rated at 65% good to excellent. June 30th always represents a benchmark for grain markets with the release of the June 30th acreage report. Acreage is important and in past years the June 30th acreage report would often serve as a volatile reminder of how prices can ebb and flow. Sometimes the changes in the report can be dramatic, and sometimes not. 2026 proved to be the latter.

USDA is estimating that there will be 95.3 million acres of corn in the United States this year. This is down 3.5 million acres from last year’s 98.8 million acres of corn. This acreage is the 5th largest on record but points to the second largest corn crop ever after last year. The quarterly corn stocks number came in at 5.29 billion bushels which was up 14% from 2025.

Soybeans were the benefactor from the lower corn numbers. US soybean acreage is set to come in at 85.4 million acres this year. This is 5% higher than a year ago. The quarterly stocks numbers for soybeans came in at 1.06 million bushels which was 5% higher than a year ago. The bigger surprise in the acreage equation was wheat which came in at 42.7 million acres, 1.1 million acres below expectations. This will be the lowest US wheat acreage on record.

On July 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures was at $4.23 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.41 bu. The August 2026 soybean futures was at $11.36 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.47. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.99 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2027 contract closing at $6.89 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of July 3rd, 2026, closed at $68.78/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $84.88/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.17/gallon, lower vs the $2.18/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 3rd, 2026, was .7042 US, down vs the .7155 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

In Ontario things are looking pretty good. Very hot weather has pushed development in both corn and soybeans. There is dryness in southwestern Ontario where a widespread rain would be welcome especially going into pollination for the corn crop. However, it is a different story in eastern Ontario where they’ve had widespread rains and it is such a different story than last year when drought ruled the day. Winter wheat harvest has commenced in Essex County as of early July and this will ramp up across Ontario depending on the weather in the next couple of weeks.

It’s important to remember that Ontario is a big province with croplands stretching from Windsor to the Quebec border as well as up into northern Ontario and as far West as the Rainy River district. This will not only lead to variable conditions province wide but also differences in cash markets. Producers should always be vigilant of this when marketing their grain.

The Canadian dollar has fallen below the $71 US range over the last couple of weeks which is further added stimulus to Ontario cash prices. This has happened at a time when futures prices have risen slightly compared to the lower values of a few weeks ago. This has caused basis levels to strengthen for both corn and soybeans. Keep in mind the traditional higher basis level for eastern Ontario corn is happening reflecting the lower production numbers from last year’s drought as well as a robust export program from Ontario.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.50 to $2.35 over the September 2026 corn futures on July 3rd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.35 to $1.86 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $4.00 to $4.40 over the August 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.66 to $3.85 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of July 3rd are approximately $7.30. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $7.61/bu range. On June 3rd the US replacement price for corn was $6.53/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

It seems like a little different world now. Earlier when we had the war in Iran in the front pages everyday oil prices surged to $120.00 a barrel. In many ways this dragged corn up over $5 a bushel and $12.00 a bushel for soybeans on the futures market. Even though that conflict is not over and there is a 60-day moratorium of understanding, the edginess in the market from those earlier days is gone. Of course, this has led too much lower prices.

Keep in mind that there has been an exit of non-commercial interests in our grain markets. With the war in Iran starting, we saw the funds accumulate more long positions. At the height of this inflation trade, funds were long 300,000 contracts in corn and 200,000 contracts in soybeans. It was a case of money flow and maybe it continues to be as some of these funds are turning back and buying again. Keep in mind the funds are looked at as villains sometimes but as saviours other times. They add a lot of liquidity to our grain market.

Who knows what the immediate future might bring but one lesson we might take from the last few months is the effect on oil prices on just about everything. For instance, we saw corn, soybeans and wheat go up as oil reached $120.00 a barrel. The same could be said with fertilizer and fuel prices. Now that oil is reach levels since before the Iran war everything is down. It is a benchmark lesson for the future. Geopolitical events which push the price of oil, can push everything and when it’s over it’s over and agricultural commodity prices retreat.

Always a variable in the grain market weather is setting up now as quite interesting. In Europe they have had tremendous heat, and this is having an effect on their corn production. For instance, the most active November European corn futures are moving to contract highs as French corn production may fall 30% in 2026. That is completely opposite to what we are expecting in the United States and South America this year. However, it is an example of what can happen if the weather goes South.

Corn

It’s getting to be that time of year when corn is stressed. In other words, it’s getting to be that critical time of year and any weather stress whether that’s lack of rain or too much rain or very hot temperatures can impact corn yield significantly. It’s not perfect in the American Midwest but it’s close. The next few weeks will tell the story going into pollination.

In retrospect, we saw about an 80 cent drop in the price of corn from its highs of $5.06 a bushel. The funds now have a small net long position and if the weather goes sideways, they will likely add to that putting corn in a position to rally again. However, will it be enough to get back to the $5 level? The answer is blowing in the wind depending on whether Mother Nature plays nice.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.75 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 6th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have resisted the price decreases over the last month, sustained by good demand especially in the soybean oil market which continues to have healthy price increases. Yes, the soybean renewable diesel boom in the United States is making a long-term difference. As we all know, soybeans are made in August, so the jury is still out.

An outlier with regard to soybeans is Chinese demand. The Chinese had bought a little bit earlier, but they’ve still not come in and bought the 25 MMT they committed to in an early agreement after the President’s visit to Beijing. Generally speaking, it’s at this time of the year when they would be buying American beans. There has been no incentive to do so up until now as the American beans are cheaper than Brazilian soybeans. Fresh Chinese buying would significantly boost soybean prices at this time of year.

The August 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 5.25 cents below the September contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

After reaching highs earlier in the spring wheat prices plummeted and now are seemingly rebounding again. Part of the price increase earlier had to do with dry weather in the American wheat country and the war in Iran. Keep in mind that Europe has had extreme heat and drought which is affecting wheat there and this might pressure prices in the weeks to come. However, keep in mind that prices now are still higher than they were a year ago. As always, there is wheat everywhere in the world filling supply gaps. The latest USDA report reiterated the trend by saying the US has the smallest wheat crop on record.

In Ontario early reports from Essex County are showing pretty good wheat yields and pretty good quality. Wheat is turning quickly across the province and the wheat harvest will likely proceed depending on the weather going forward. Cash prices have also been bolstered by a slight rebound in wheat futures and a Canadian dollar in the $0.70 range.

With the Canadian dollar currently sitting at .7042 US there’s been considerable stimulus added to Canadian cash grain prices. As always, the Canadian dollar is a thinly traded currency and generally is at an inverse value to American dollar. However, it has also been buffeted by a Canadian economy that is slowed and interest rates expectations which have changed. This has been accentuated by the American decision not to renew CUSMA. Will the Canadian dollar go under $0.70 US? It is all so hard to say but eventually it will start the long March back to 80 cents and even $0.90 US. It will always be an added layer within our Ontario grain marketing plans.

Geopolitics continues to be very real, but it also is so dialed in to our grain trading algorithms. The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran runs out on August the 18th and depending on what might happen will also have an effect on a grain price volatility. At the same time Ukrainian drones are reaching deep inside of Russia causing supply constraints and disarray within the Russian war narrative. The possibility these events might reignite oil and grain prices will likely continue.

It is often said that rain makes grain and that is surely true in 2026 as any other year. There is also the narrative that the greatest cure for low prices is low prices. In that regard over the last year and a half we had seen grain demand acceleration. There has been no demand destruction because of high prices however, at a certain point when supply is constrained in some way, we will need grain prices to rise to ration demand. This always needs to be kept in mind within our marketing plans.

As we move into the later parts of July, as stated earlier we will be getting into the critical pollination period for corn, where moisture and mild temperatures are always preferred. After that we will be looking toward August and the soybean pod set and this is always critical to production going forward. The challenge for Ontario producers is to continue to refine their marketing plans to capture the marketing opportunities that will inevitably occur. Risk management never gets old. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 6, 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It is that time of year again when we’re in the homestretch hurtling toward most critical crop development time of the year. Often times, seasonality tells us that some of the best prices for new crop are had in mid-June and early July. This is the time when the crop can go through difficult times during the growing season. However, so far things look pretty good. US corn planting was 97% complete as of June 8th with soybeans coming in at 92%. 66% of the US corn crop looked good to excellent as of June 8th about four points less than last year’s 71%. USDA estimated that 65% of soybeans that had emerged were in good to excellent condition. It is a long road; the USDA released their latest report on June the 11th.

The USDA made few changes in their June WASDE report. It is sticking with their estimate of 15.995 billion bushels of corn based on an average yield of 183 bushels per acre which will put us at the second largest corn crop ever after last year. Acreage remains the same at 95.3 million acres. Total domestic use for US corn is forecast at 13.055 billion bushels with corn exports projected now would be 3.15 billion bushels. New crop ending corn ending stocks are set to come in at 1.96 billion bushels. Old crop corn ending stocks also were bumped up sitting at 2.145 billion bushels. Brazilian and Argentinian corn production was also raised to 138 MMT and 43 MMT respectively.

On the soybean side of the equation the USDA made no changes from last month’s report. We are still looking at 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans at a trend line estimate of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If this comes to fruition, it’ll be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. One telling statistics from the USDA report was the US winter wheat production which was cut from 1.048 billion bushels to 1.029 billion bushels. This will mean that is the smallest US winter wheat crop since 1965.

On June 12th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.12 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.40 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.13 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.84 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.42 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of June 12th, 2026, closed at $84.88/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $105.42/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.18/gallon, lower vs the $2.22/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 12th, 2026, was .7155 US, down vs the .7272 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

A long stretch of good weather his certainly been good for planting progress across Ontario. For the most part both corn and soybeans have been planted as of June the 13th. Rainfall has been in short supply which is added planting progress. There is some uneven emergence in heavier soils but the big issue going into later June is moisture. The crop will need that to give it a head start on what could be a very hot Month of July.

Winter wheat continues to march toward harvest time. It has benefited from some ideal temperatures earlier in June and later in May. Lots of fungicide application is apparent as you drive by Ontario wheat fields. As it stands now we’re looking at 1.17 million acres of wheat, 2.89 million acres of soybeans and 2.32 million acres of corn in Ontario this spring.

Basis levels have actually been maintained versus the last Market Trends report partly because the Canadian dollar is lower at .7155 US. This has mitigated the price decline regarding basis as futures have declined significantly. With the Canadian dollar showing weakness old crop corn basis is actually increased slightly while the soybean basis has maintained where it was.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.50 to $2.22 over the July 2026 corn futures on June 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.40 to $4.15 over the July 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.30 to $3.60 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.04. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.00/bu range. On June 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.26/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

There has been a huge move down in grain futures prices, so aggressive you got to wonder the reason why? Although the vagaries of trading algorithms can be complex at times in retrospect this is pretty obvious. The funds had held huge, long positions most of the spring in grains and they bailed out over the last several weeks. Part of the reason for this is because of the improved crop weather and the progress of the crop. It also had to do with following the energy markets.

The war in Iran has had a lot to do with this. Initially there was a price spike in oil, which reached $105 a barrel in mid-May. Grains tended to follow this pattern and funds were using it as somewhat of a hedge. However, as ceasefires grew longer, the trading algorithms sent energy prices down currently at $84 a barrel. As of June 14th, there is a permanent settlement supposedly in the works, which could soften up the energy markets even more. Grain prices have fallen in concert.

Keep in mind that much of this market volatility has to do with geopolitics but also something different in 2026. Trading algorithms are dialed into what the President of the United States says on social media and this becomes trading behavior the next day. It is also being affected by predictive markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where you can bet on just about anything. In many ways, is just another form of demand, something that is very difficult to measure.

That new reality is still grounded in grain fundamentals even though at times it’s very hard to see. For instance, we have been given pretty good opportunities to price grain over the last several months before the funds left. This new predictive supercharged speculation giveth and taketh away. It surely will continue.

Corn

Old crop corn is just a long story now having lost easily $0.60 over the last 30 days. Keep in mind despite what the algorithms our trading at the crop is not made in May and June, it’s usually July and August.

That’s when new crop is made but we can’t ignore what has happened to new crop prices. Your December futures were trading just at $5 a bushel just over a month ago and of course it’s down now to lows we seen last October. Will we get back to that $5 level? It seems unlikely now but of course if hot and dry hits in July there is precedent for that.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 6th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Believe it or not soybeans don’t like wet feet and in some parts of the American growing area that’s exactly what they have. It is a completely different scenario than what we have here in Ontario. However, as we all know it’s usually August weather that determines soybean yield and high temperatures and sunshine can eliminate those wet feet very quickly. Needless to say, it is a reminder that weather will continue to dominate the health of this crop.

The energy markets have also had an effect on the soybean market but less so than in corn partly because of the strength in soybean oil. The soybean oil market has also retreated in concert with oil but not as much as might be expected given the dynamism of that market. The US policy toward biodiesel is really helping.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 5.25 cents below the August contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 20th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The wheat market has broken hard over the last 30 days and in many ways, it doesn’t quite add up. We’re looking at the smallest American winter wheat crop since 1965 with crop conditions in Nebraska and Kansas very poor. As per usual there is wheat everywhere in the world except maybe in the United States with potential getting less and less. Despite that, the funds have exited large parts of the agricultural commodity market and the wheat was not immune from that.

In Ontario producers have seen approximately a dollar decrease in the price of new crop wheat over the last month, a bitter pill but still much higher than a year ago. Despite the bearishness in wheat the Ontario crop does look good going into July and producers will be hoping for good quality. That would put Ontario producers at a great advantage especially with the Americans having the smallest crop in 60 years.

The Canadian dollar has been weaker based on a number of reasons but there has been a call from the American President regarding the 51st state once again. Anytime that that happens it usually drives down the Canadian dollar and this time was no exception. Also too, we have slipped into a technical recession having a couple quarters of negative economic growth. Some of this has come from the tariff effect from the United States on manufacturing in Ontario. As it is, the Canadian dollar is usually in an inverse relationship with the US dollar. However, the Canadian economy needs a boost or at least a boost of good economic news to take the loonie higher.

Basis values for Ontario grains will be largely dependent on the crop that we get this year. At the present time, all things look good except for maybe some dryness in southwestern Ontario. We need to remember last year eastern Ontario had continual drought and that it resulted in much better cash basis values this past winter and spring. Any such production calamity in Ontario would produce the same type of thing next year. Of course, the value of the Canadian dollar will always impact basis levels especially for soybeans and wheat.

What is it going to take to rally these grain markets? Well, bad weather on the other guys farm is usually what does it with regard to reducing overall yield. However, the weather is always a wild card, and it will continue to be. Keep in mind another wild card in this might be China who has been very limited in any American buying but has made some vague buying commitments. If the Chinese were to come along and buy 25 million bushels of soybeans in a year like this one which has projected carry out of 310 million bushels, that would shake up this market. Keep in mind, markets go both ways and at the present time we’re at the bottom of a pretty tough four-week time frame.

Grain surpluses are building. For instance, USDA recently increased their outlook for Brazilian corn production to be a new record at 138 MMT. Argentina is looking at record corn as well and we know the Americans are looking at their second biggest crop ever. One thing that means is Ontario producers will be challenged to find their profitable niche in this vastly bigger grain world. However, that’s partly what risk management is for, finding profitability amid challenging circumstances. What it will take will be daily market intelligence. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. It is that time of year when the rubber meets the road with regard to all the plans put in place over the last few months. As of May, the 10th 57% of corn was planted in the US and 49% of intended soybean acreage was in the ground. So we’re off to a very good start. However, as every farmer knows there’s lots of risks planting those fields and there’s lots of risk ahead. Markets have been volatile. On Tuesday May the 12th the USDA released their latest WASDE report. The May report is USDA’s first detailed look into crop production for the 2026/2027 crop year.

USDA is predicting new crop corn to be 15.995 billion bushels based on the yield guess of 183 bushels per acre. This was within pre report estimates and if it comes to fruition, it will be the second largest corn crop on record trailing only last year’s 17.02-billion-bushel blockbuster. The planted acreage is set to come in at 95.3 million acres with harvested acreage projected at 87.4 million acres. It really wasn’t a big surprise with regard to these fundamental numbers. The corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to be 1.957 billion bushels. Total corn usage is estimated to be 16.205 billion bushels.

On the soybean side of the equation, USDA estimated numbers of 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans with a trendline yield of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If it comes to fruition, this will be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. US domestic soybean stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels which was on the bottom end of the pre report estimates. The Brazilians are set to produce another 186 MMT crop of soybeans and the Argentinians are set to come in at 48 MMTs. USDA estimated 2026/2027 US wheat production to be 1.561 billion bushels which is a decrease from the 1.921 billion bushels last May. If this production comes to fruition, it will be the lowest wheat production since 1972.

On May 15th corn and soybeans were about the same and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.77 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.70. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.35 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.85 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.05 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of May 15th, 2026, closed at $105.42/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $94.40/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.22/gallon, higher vs the $2.21/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7272 US, down vs the .7311 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

The Grain Farmers of Ontario’s estimation of planting put corn planting at 52% complete, soybeans are at 16 per cent complete, and spring cereals planting is 62 per cent complete across the province as of Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Weather has been uneven early in the season and especially cold going into mid-May. Producers will be hoping for hot weather for good crop emergence and adequate rainfall to get the crop off to a good start.

Rainfall has been a bit on the light side in some areas of the province as of mid-May. In fact, although some wheat fields look very good some of the wheat fields that got side dressed late because of tough ground conditions are in need of a good rain. So far at least in the deep southwest of Ontario that has not happened. Weather is always a dominant factor with regard to crop progress. So far it is led to slow development, but of course we’re hoping for a quick turnaround.

Ontario corn basis levels have hardly changed from the last Market Trends report. In fact if anything they are a bit lower. Soybeans on the other hand have much higher basis levels which are reflection of the lower Canadian dollar, higher futures prices and the lower soybean supplies in eastern Canada. The Canadian dollar currently at .7272 US continues to add stimulus to Ontario grain prices.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.40 to $2.05 over the July 2026 corn futures on May 15th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.63 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.45 to $4.20 over the July 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.16 to $3.45 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.72. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.66/bu range. On May 15th the US replacement price for corn was $6.74/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

Our grain marketing reality is growing a little bit more mixed. A month ago, one of the main topics of discussion was the Iran war and how that had affected both fertilizer and fuel prices. By extension the grain markets rallied. However, that war has now become more dialed into the trading algorithms and a month-long ceasefire has mitigated some of the effect. Needless to say, oil prices are still elevated and the war could continue to flare up anytime. It is truly a wild card for grain producers this year across the North American corn belt.

That might be the wild card but of course there is always the weather which has a big effect on what’s happening ahead. For instance, by the weekend of May 16th about 70% of the US corn crop could be planted as well as 2/3 of the soybean crop. Things have turned bearish and that’s partly because of the disappointment in Beijing and partly because of the great crop planting progress and the benign weather. It is leaning into a bearish market environment.

If the weather decides to play nice, we know the rest of the story. We will have big crops and probably rising ending stocks. However, on the other hand if there is a hiccup involved with regard to crop weather in supply, we will likely see a mitigating effect on the price dropping. It is shaping up to be a super El Nino year. Looking back at the past super El Nino years, 2015, 1997 and 2023, all had record corn yields.

Wheat is at an interesting point. The Chicago wheat contract which is especially relative to producers in Ontario has been dragged up by the HRW wheat price rally. This is happened because of the dry weather in the US southern plains. It is key because the United States will be at a low ebb for HRW for another year. This should support to some extent the Chicago wheat market. As always, with wheat grown everywhere, cheaper foreign wheat always has the potential to show up in US ports.

Corn

The US old crop corn ending stocks sitting at 2.1 billion bushels is putting a drag on the corn price. However, it is much higher than it was a year ago and has constantly threatened to go through $5 US. However, it has not done that and backed off currently at $4.81 a bushel. New crop ending stocks at 1.96 billion bushels are telling us there’s not a lot of concern. Old crop prices reflect this. We’ll have to see what the weather does this summer.

The December contract breaking through $5 is a tough ask. Seasonality is always part of that and traditionally that has been mid-June for the highest new crop prices. However, over the past five years the seasonality seems to have changed because the best new crop prices being in the first part of May. That possibly might have happened this year. Weather risk and renewed war risk will likely be two factors to break that $5 barrier.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have been on call with regard to any news coming out of China. At this point there hasn’t been specific numbers mentioned with regard to any type of renewed Chinese demand coming out of the presidential meeting in Beijing. Positive news out of that meeting might have taken the nearby month into the $12.00 futures territory. As it is now, there is really no shortage of soybeans in the United States or in the world at any level.

Soybean prices fell after the summit with funds taking profits from the lack of news. However, there still could be increased Chinese buying but it might be more likely that it comes later in the season, when soybeans could be cheaper. Cheap always is the great elixir for Chinese soybean buying.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced .25 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat went up the limit in one trading session of the week ending May 16th. In the May USDA report all wheat production was down to 1.561 billion bushels, and this was 170 million bushels below trade estimates. The HRW wheat was estimated at 515 million bushels which is nearly 290 million bushels below last year. So, for whatever reason, we went up the limit but keep in mind most US wheat is still priced out of global markets. At the moment it’s a US phenomenon seeing this wheat price higher, at a certain point it will likely disappear. Needless to say, it does represent opportunity to price wheat.

The Ontario wheat crop could sure use a rain in some areas, but generally looks good. Quality issues can always be a problem when it comes to wheat but drier than normal usually works well. Prices are also a dollar plus higher this year compared to what was received last harvest season in 2025. The Canadian dollar certainly helps with that. Producers will be hoping as the weather grows warmer wheat finds its sweet spot to bring in bumper yields.

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 72 cent level US. Over the last several weeks it is gyrated between 73 cents and 71 cents US bouncing in an inverse fashion to where the US dollar goes. At a certain point there is going to be a breakout to the upside and when it does it will be a problem for Ontario cash grain prices. As it is, stronger USD economic data and trade uncertainty with Canada hasn’t been good for the loonie. $0.80 US still seems like a long way off, thankfully for Ontario grain prices.

The geopolitical situation continues to be a bit of a hot mess, but a hot mess that the grain trading algorithms have readily devoured. Whether it is Russia and Ukraine or Iran and the United States or Israel and Lebanon grain algorithms have adjusted. However, oil prices are still elevated which help grain prices generally. In the bearish fundamental environment for grain, which we are in now these geopolitical concerns can add a lot of spark to the market at unusual times.

Keep in mind that we are in a time frame of grain seasonality we’re often times you can capture new crop marketing opportunities. It is also true that you can sell grain throughout the year successfully especially if you have market orders set. Capturing those market opportunities can be elusive especially in markets like these affected by geopolitical events beyond the grain fundamentals.

Despite that, we move on. Here in Ontario, we have the challenge once again this spring of getting the crop in the ground. That can always certainly be a challenge, but it’s also challenged to market our crops in a profitable manner and capture those marketing opportunities when they come along. Grain continues to move out into the export market to compete with cheaper options. At the same time there are value added opportunities here at home built up by our industry overtime. Daily market intelligence remains key. Risk management never grows old. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

It is that time of year again when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. As always, there are variations on this theme depending on the weather. Some producers are going well, some are delayed by rain, and some haven’t even started yet. However, as we look into 2026, we have a world awash in grain but at the same time deeply troubled by geopolitical events in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Our grain price environment equation is being buffeted every which way. On April 9th the USDA came out with their latest WASDE report.

There were few changes coming from the USDA on April 9th. US corn production for 2025/26 Is still pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. Corn ethanol usage came in at 5.6 billion bushels, feed and residual usage came in at 6.2 billion bushels and food seed and residual use and industrial use was projected at 6.97 billion bushels. This year US farmers surveyed came up with the figure of 95.3 million acres of corn which is down 3% from a year ago. Soybeans on the other hand are projected to be 84.7 million acres which is up 4% from last year. Winter wheat acreage is the lowest since 1919.

On the soybean side of the equation old crop ending stocks are still set at 350 million bushels. USDA did trim its export estimate by 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels. Total usage is set at 4.262 billion bushels. There was a lowering a world ending stocks reflecting some higher crushed estimates. Production in Brazil remains at 180 MMT and 48 MMT in Argentina. On the global side of things, wheat ending stocks actually increased slightly from the March estimate.

On April 24th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.84 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.78 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.55. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.08 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.76 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.09 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of April 24th, 2026, closed at $94.40/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $111.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.21/gallon, down vs the $2.25/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7311 US, up vs the .7185 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Wet weather has been a characteristic in the early spring throughout Ontario limiting field activity. However, there has been widespread side dressing nitrogen on the wheat with some acres left behind as of Saturday April 25th because of rain showers inundating Ontario. Producers will be looking for dry weather both to get this side dressing done as well as commence corn planting.

Statistics Canada is estimating Ontario farmers will grow 2.316 million acres of corn this year and 2.894 million acres of soybeans. In Quebec we’re looking at 825 thousand acres of corn and a million acres of soybeans. Intuitively, the Ontario corn number doesn’t seem quite right especially with the higher fertilizer and fuel costs this spring. However, much of the corn acreage in the province will depend on spring weather. At this early date there is still wide opportunity to garner big corn acres the spring.

The erosion in the Canadian dollar of a couple cents since the last Market Trends report is partly responsible for the lower soybean basis in Ontario. However, keep in mind that the short crop in eastern Ontario last year is resulting in a deficit of soybeans to export. This has led to basis strength especially a few weeks ago. At the same time there has been US corn imported into Quebec to satisfy some local requirements. It is all a function of price and as local prices approach the US replacement price, there will be corn imports.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 24th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.91 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.09 to $3.40 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.36/bu range. On April 24th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

In many ways, it’s a new day. For some producers they may have old crop left in the bin but for others it is long in the rear view mirror. What we face as we go into planting our crops this year is risk that we’ve become accustomed to overtime. There are the fundamentals of grain which refers to the supply and demand but of course there is also the weather which we deal with all the time. As we look into 2026 weather concerns will continually dominate where we go. Outlier years like 2012 and 1988 will happen again. However, for the most part they are rare. Needless to say, we will be in a continual weather market until the crop is made.

Another important point to realize as we move ahead is that grain fundamentals don’t seem to matter as much as they used to. For instance, right now the world is awash in grain especially coming off good crops from last year. At the same time futures prices have moved higher partly because of geopolitical events and partly because of things unknown. In many ways there is no connection to previous days no classic technical or fundamental analysis to apply. What we’re finding is that trading algorithms are dialed in to social media posts especially at the highest level of the American government and over the last several weeks this has made market prices go higher. Also too, with war in Iran much uncertainty has reigned and the trading algorithms have responded positively.

It is always hard to know what will come next especially in this market environment. We know that the potential for another big crop in the United States followed by another big crop in South America is more or less likely. Keep in mind that also will be dialed into the grain trading algorithms. In fact, you might make an argument cash basis may become even more important depending on where you farm. At the end of the day, it is our cash prices which is the litmus test for our market decisions.

The war in Iran continues and its effect on our agricultural markets will surely continue. Keep in mind that grain analysts are not military analysts, which creates a lot of noise within the marketplace. As it is, the energy market will continually be a place for big volatility. Soybean oil will be affected as well as our corn markets. We cannot ignore the daily headlines out of Iran. It will always be an influence until things settle down

Corn

Corn futures prices lost about $0.40 from their March highs and are currently working halfway back to those March levels. Whether they get there or not is another point of contention. For instance, at the present time we are planting new crop corn and you would think it would take a lot of weather delays and new news to have an effect on our old corn prices as we move forward.

For new crop corn there has always been the discussion since the start of the war in Iran about how higher fuel and fertilizer prices might affect US acreage this spring. That debate is still ongoing, but it is probably more likely that weather will affect the corn acres vwesus the fuel and fertilizer debate. Keep in mind that earlier the USDA had forecast 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted this spring.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 5.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans usually have a lot to say, but not so much for the moment. We have been in a trading range of about $0.25 up and down since the big drop on March the 12th. Keep in mind the Chinese have not been back to buy soybeans even though there is a US China summit supposed to be taking place in May. US export demand has been pretty nonexistent within this vacuum. We also know there are likely be more soybeans planted this year in the United States.

It is no secret that at the present time South America and Brazil in particular owns the soybean market. They’ve had another record crop over 180 MMT and this will continue to permeate within soybean prices for the near future. As we move ahead, there would have to be another explosion in oil prices or some type of weather calamity in the United States to make this soybean price get much higher.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 6.75 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat has been a bit of a bright spot in the agricultural commodity market, something that doesn’t usually happen. Remember, wheat is almost everywhere in abundance, but it is spring in the southern US plains where it is dry. This with reduced acres has put a bit of kick in wheat’s step. However, keep in mind the wheat prices are lower on the global stage versus in the US. Remarkably, even the US has imported some wheat this year based on that fact. All of this might mean that we are looking at a major marketing opportunity for wheat at the present time.

It may be that time in Ontario as well. Wheat prices now are approximately a dollar plus higher than they were last harvest in July of 2025. Wheat producers might argue it’s still not enough, but plus $7.50 wheat has not been here for at least a couple years. Quality issues are always a concern when it comes to wheat, but we are still a long ways from that. For many producers especially on heavy soils, side dressing nitrogen is still the main priority as we head into May.

The Canadian dollar is up about a cent in half from three weeks ago which is always a dampening effect for Ontario cash grain prices. These times are tumultuous with the war going on in Iran and recently the American dollar has been sliding which usually results in the Canadian dollar gaining in value. We have also had some Canadian economic data that was pretty good combined with the spectre of interest rate cuts being less likely and oil prices being supportive. Having our Canadian loonie flutter around the 73-cent mark as always good for Ontario cash grain prices. As it is, there is still trouble in the Strait of Hormoz and producers will need to keep abreast of these things especially with regard to how it affects the US and Canadian dollar.

When you combine the geopolitical effects, we see now with the oncoming growing season there is a world of risk ahead for grain prices. Keep in mind that ignoring the war for a minute we’re going into a time where seasonality with grain pricing tells us we may see contracting opportunities quite near. In fact, we have already seen some based on the lower prices we had last season. It will be important during this time to keep market orders current in pricing your grain.

As stated, earlier USDA has forecast 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans this year. That’s happening right now and will surely be affected by weather and who knows what else. Once again, there seemingly will be grain everywhere following a consistently normal script for grain prices. However, we all know as producers it is a long way till payday. There is a world of risk ahead including USDA reports which may define price direction for the near future.

Needless to say, the planting season does represent a bit of a new day for grain pricing. Everything seems new. A new fundamental will emerge. A new story will be told. The algorithms need more distraction. Within this mix, it’s not lost on farmers that risk management doesn’t grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

The calendar date has changed and with that so has the psychology. Where we have been musing about old crop stocks for several weeks and months now, April 2026 will be the month where planters will really start to roll both in corn and soybeans. The March 31st USDA Prospective plantings report always serves as a benchmark for the new crop year ahead of us. Sometimes, this report can see explosive market action as the algorithms have it dialed in. With war raging it is an uneven time in markets. The March 31st report set this up for what we may be looking at in crop acreage this year.

US producers surveyed across the United States will be planting less corn and more soybeans in 2026. The US corn acreage came in at 95.3 million acres which is down 3% from last year. On the soybean side of the ledger US soybean producers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026 which is up 4% from last year. The winter wheat acreage for 2026 is estimated to be 43.8 million acres down 3% from 2025 and the lowest number since 1919. Winter wheat acreage planted area was set at 32.4 million acres which is down 2% from last year.

The acreage numbers are very similar to a year ago. Keep in mind that that could change greatly over the year ahead.

Case in point is if you look over the last 20 years the average corn change between March intentions and final plantings is 1.634 million acres with soybeans at 1.868 million acres. The biggest swings during this have been 6.5 million acres for corn and 8.5 million acres for soybeans. So, despite the USDA report on March 31st being important there are always variations on the theme as we move ahead.

On April 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.52 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.63 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.54. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.98 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.46 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.76 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of April 2nd, 2026, closed at $111.54/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $98.71/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.25/gallon, up vs the $2.16/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 2nd, 2026, was .7185 US, down vs the .7291 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

In Ontario, it’s that time of year when everybody’s getting ready to plant. However, there have been hints of spring with a few warm days but so far is not wide open. Side dressing of nitrogen on wheat has barely started early in April with uneven weather. Needless to say, the wheat crop looks good although are there are a few poor fields from winter kill in specific areas.

Basis levels are very close to the same or slightly higher than they were since the last Market Trends report. Eastern Ontario corn basis which has been significantly higher than southwestern Ontario has eroded slightly. This likely will continue to be volatile throughout 2026 because of the short crop in this area last year. The soybean basis is largely affected by the volatility in the Canadian dollar and with it fluttering in the $0.71 range soybean basis has been strong.

Basis is always a reflection of supply and demand within your local area, however, as usual Canadian basis levels reflect greatly the value of the Canadian dollar. This is especially true for soybeans and wheat. It has been accentuated lately by the big moves in futures values caused by the war in Iran. If this continues, we should expect continuing volatility on basis levels.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 2nd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.69 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.30 to $4.24 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.20 to $3.55 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.76/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

It’s been all about the war for the last two weeks but at a certain point you become numb to the pain. In other words, even the markets get the war dialed in. However, keep in mind that this price volatility isn’t going to go away, and it has been significant. For instance, after the January USDA report corn went down $0.50 a bushel. The rally in May futures did regain all of that and more before trailing off. Who would have expected that after the January limit down move. As it is, with war dialed in to the algorithms we’ve seen a 22-month high in both corn and soybeans.

Of course, the question is what happens now? With war raging in the Middle East affecting the price of oil it is also hard to say. However, prices are higher now than we’ve become accustomed to over the last 18 to 24 months. Closing your eyes for a minute and imagine a trading world without the war and we would likely see a far different picture. Think about seasonality, think about the spring weather, and think about “hot and dry” that may come this summer. At this point in early April, we are sitting better than we expected, almost a gift on the price front. US farmers produced 17.02 billion bushels of corn last year. Will that happen again and if it does will prices stay where they are?

Keep in mind it’s usually around the middle of June going into the July 4th weekend new crop corn reaches its high point. Soybeans are made in August which likely will be the same this year. However, there are always variations on the theme, and we’ll need to manage that risk looking ahead into a 2026 growing season.

Crude oil is always a default when it comes to the prices of our agricultural commodities. It is always part of the Market Trends report but in 2026 it is really changing the game. We have seen about a doubling in price of crude oil in the last 30 days with the resulting increase in the price of gasoline, diesel fuel and other distillates. Who knows if it’s over and who knows if $200 oil is possible. It’s a war thing, but it is reality. Our grain prices to some extent are taking a lead from oil but of course they are much more reluctant than oil probably will be

Corn

One of the bigger questions this spring is how much corn will be shifted into soybeans because of higher fertilizer prices. Estimates vary but about 75% of fertilizer has already been put down for corn in the United States mitigating much of that move. However, we never know and for the remaining acres it definitely could shift out of corn. Keep in mind, the American farmer loves growing corn and even with higher fertilizer prices it’s hard to see new crop acreage going down much further than what the USDA estimated.

Simply put, we are well supplied with corn in the United States. On March 1st, USDA put quarterly stocks at 9.024 billion bushels. That was slightly lower than the trade expected. Keep in mind that demand for this corn has been off the chart this year and price has been partly accentuated since the drop off in January by the war going on in the Middle East.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.75 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean rally started back in late January possibly to the notion that the market wanted to buy soybean acres. However, we know after that that the forces of the world took over with war starting to rage in Iran. The funds have also piled on hoping to ride the wave up. This is happening despite big supplies coming out of South America. Sometimes, things just don’t make sense.

Earlier we had been looking at the Trump meeting with President Xi of China as the flash point for American soybean buying. However, that meeting was postponed with a result in the decrease in the price of soybeans. Keep in mind that meeting is now rescheduled for May and market algorithms will be dialed into renewed buying from China for American soybeans. It’s like betting on how noisy can a firecracker pop. Trading algorithms pay attention to these news items and as we get closer to the meeting in May, so the prices will be sensitive to it.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 16 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat prices are higher than they’ve usually been, which should set off celebrations in the wheat complex. However, we know that some of this is due to the dryness in the American southwest plains, but also due to some of these prices tied to the increasing price of oil. Keep in mind that we’re coming off 5-year lows at the end of 2025. At the same time USDA prospective plantings report tells us that we have the least wheat acres since 1919. At a certain point you would hope it would break out, but in the wheat market that’s like waiting for Godet.

In Ontario, wheat prices are much higher than they were a year ago and although producers would like to see them surely go higher, lots of market orders might have hit lately. We are approximately $1.50 a bushel higher than we were last summer when the wheat was taken off the field. A Canadian dollar at .7185 US certainly helps. As per usual, in a war situation all bets are off, but we are in a better situation than we were a year ago.

The Canadian dollar is telling a story even though it is hard to know what it is. From March 9th to April 3rd, 2026, the Canadian dollar dropped from almost 74 cents US to .7185 cents US. This was significantly positive for Ontario cash grains prices and will continue to be if the Canadian dollar continues to break. As always, the value of the Canadian dollar moves in an inverse fashion to the US dollar. However, there is always a variation on the theme, this time with war being part of it. The Canadian dollar at the 71 US dollar level likely presents good opportunities for cash grain pricing.

We know that these are unique times in the grain market. The hot war of the last few weeks has made it that way. Part of the reason for this are the funds which form non-commercial demand have piled into corn and soybeans. In fact, we have the largest net long position in corn and soybeans in the funds since May of 2026. In fact, you might argue that the funds are banking on more war, energy gains and China picking up in buying US soybeans. When they are long, farmers so to speak are riding the wave, when they go short, often times we end up in the drink. Here we are in April of 2026.

Keep in mind March 1st corn stocks were up 11% at 9.02 billion bushels the largest on record. Soybean stocks were at 2.01 billion bushels up 10% and the largest in ten years. Wheat stocks were the largest in five years. Simply put these onerous grain stocks are punching way below their weight. Grain prices spurred by oil and war have spawned an alternative fundamental universe, a least for the time being.

We move ahead with caution, but with market orders in the mix. War markets make everything volatile and violent. At the same time many of us will have started planting by the next time Market Trends in published. As the weeks move on so will the war risk, but it will be mixed with the inherit production risks we always face. The challenge for Ontario farmers will be to manage that risk. As always, daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 5, 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th.

The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs.

These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report.

On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead.

Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this.

Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.25 to $4.04 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.04 to $3.34 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.56. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.89/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

Forget about what you been thinking, it’s all about the war now. About four years ago we saw what the Ukraine and Russia war did to the commodity market with wheat exploding higher. However, it was unexpected to some extent when the Americans and Israelis attacked Iran about 12 days ago and with that it upset the grain market apple cart. Funds who had been net short the market suddenly were exiting their positions. Also too, the price of oil exploded and there was spillover effect in grains. It simply is a new world in 2026.

Keep in mind it is so difficult to know where we’re going. Much of it will depend on how long it lasts but is likely to last long. The oil market was languishing in the $50s and $60s but now pushed up toward $120.00 briefly on the futures market. The Strait of Hormuz have been blocked which is transit to about 20% of the world’s oil. In many ways this is a Black Swan we didn’t see coming. For a world that is full of grain seemingly only a few weeks ago now there is a completely different planning horizon.

Prices have risen substantially over the last month and especially in the last two weeks. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals that have kept the lid on grain prices for quite some time. It will also probably raise the specter of extreme volatility as we could be facing a world calamity not seen in quite a few years.

The Brazil harvest in soybeans is coming to a completion and it is record setting once again. As these soybeans are being harvested, planters are in the fields with the second crop of corn for Brazil. This means that there will not only be the war risk, but we are also in a weather market watching how much moisture these new corn plants will be provided. There is a world of risk out there.

Corn

With the war on going, it is no secret that prices are going higher for both fuel and fertilizer. With corn a bigger user of fertilizer than soybeans it would seem that the funds are remaining a little bit more neutral on the corn acres that could be planted this spring. We will find that out in the March 31st USDA report.

In the meantime, to some extent corn will follow the price of oil and the funds are setting up to go long depending on the immediate future. At the present time they don’t have a big, long position, but this could certainly change and when it changes to could change in a big way. However, the state of acres for 2026 is still in flux. Earlier the USDA had pitched 94 million acres of corn in their outlook conference.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean market has been fairly effusive even before the war started. It also is sensitive to the social media posts coming out of the White House. Earlier, the American president had said that he hoped China would come in and buy an extra 8 MMTs of soybeans in the immediate future. Since then, there hasn’t been any American beans sold and Brazilian beans are still a dollar a bushel below American values.

There is a meeting scheduled in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi at the end of March and early April. It’s hard to know now exactly what will come from this meeting especially with the war going on. However, it has not been beyond the realm of possibility that new soybean buying announcements would come from this meeting. However, the new price volatility caused by the war may eat that narrative alive. Earlier the USDA had mused about 85 million soybean acres for this year in the United States. That number will be refreshed on March 31st, and it certainly also will be enhanced by any announcement coming from the potential meeting of the leaders in Beijing.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 12.5 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There is wheat everywhere but keep in mind that this is war and wheat prices are up about a dollar a bushel since the end of January. With the war seemingly chasing out the market bears, it is likely that wheat prices will be a bit more sensitive to weather concerns going forward such as dryness in many of the worlds production areas where wheat is coming out of dormancy. It’s also true that wheat might just be explosive based on a volatile nature of war in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s hard to imagine wheat prices going back down in this environment but that spectre also exists.

In Ontario it is an important time coming up for wheat about to break dormancy. Fields in the deep southwest of the province are already very green and nitrogen application will likely take place very soon for the early birds. According to Agricorp there are 1,046,568 wheat acres this year in Ontario. Currently prices are about a dollar higher than they were last year for wheat off the combine in July of 2026.

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 73 cent US level. The war has actually caused an increase in the value of the American dollar which is always negative for the Canadian dollar. This has continually added stimulus to Ontario gain crash prices. Keep in mind there is a war going on none and none of this is stable and as producers we must watch our currency fluctuations to capture good basis levels especially on soybeans.

It’s important to keep in mind then when it comes to grain marketing we’re still on the long road. Yes, we should expect extreme gyrations based on the geopolitics of the day. For instance, we all know that the price of oil is in the crosshairs. If it continues to go up possibly over $125.00 a barrel you could see the funds take their money and get it into grains. Keep in mind the non-commercial demand which is commonly referred to as funds will have no loyalty during this difficult time of war.

Of course, as always nobody knows what is about to happen. For new crop pricing surely there have been some market orders hit already as December corn was headed toward $5 and beans were headed toward $12.00. We also have the tremendous costs involved this year of higher fertilizer and higher fuel prices which seems to be getting worse after already being high. Much will depend on geopolitical events in the war, and much will depend on the price of oil and how much a jilted global economy becomes. Market orders can be one of the best ways to capture these price opportunities.

It is a long road to payday for Ontario grain producers. It might be argued that the latest geopolitical event with the problems in the Middle East is an opportunity and a gift along the marketing highway. This has happened despite grain fundamentals which are onerous suggesting price goes the other way. We need to set up for success. It is a difficult time for sure based on the war. Keep in mind risk management is a continual process and there will be many marketing opportunities ahead. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th.

As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels.

On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels.

On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year’s crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre.

Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices.

This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher.

Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You’ve got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready.

A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too.

As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July.

Corn

As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now.

We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the northern part of Mato Grosso have been affected by very rainy weather. Needless to say, with the USDA predicting 180 MMTs of soybeans being produced in Brazil surely it is a minor factor.

Brazil continues to be the titan of soybean production and harvest is continuing there at this time. Keep in mind that Brazil has had 19 straight season of production expansion and 75% of their exports go to China. Also keep in mind that Chinese demand growth for soybeans has been in concert with this production increase in Brazil. There is really no sign of this changing other than the fact you have to ask yourself the question can both China and Brazil continue to boost capacity on demand in production respectively.

The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15.25 cents below the May contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There are strong wheat crops almost everywhere. As always, these crops are ready to fill supply gaps. There is also rain in the American southwest plains which will help the wheat crop. That’s a partial list of bearish factors with wheat so why is the price been going up recently? Some might argue the law of averages but there’s been some movement up in wheat based on the other commodities. However, it is a bearish environment. Funds have been short wheat since 2022. Breaking out of that might have to be led by soybeans or corn prices catching fire in the next few weeks.

In Ontario old crop wheat prices shot up above $7.00 in the last few weeks helping some producers who were tempted to store wheat from last summer. This reflected the increases in futures prices as well as the Canadian dollar still being relatively low in the $0.73 US range. With snow still inundating most of the Ontario wheat crop it is always difficult to know how and when to contract new crop wheat. Is it alive or is it not? As the snow recedes, we should get a better answer.

The Canadian dollar has gained about two cents since the last Market Trends report. It is always hard to tell why but the American dollar has been dropping significantly starting about a month ago but has recently been rising getting within three points of its value on the US dollar index where it was in January. Usually, a 2 cent rise in the Canadian dollar means that basis values go down for Ontario producers. It is not as acute this time around but will likely be next time. Still, the Canadian dollar at $0.73 US will always be good for Ontario cash grain prices.

As now it stands Ontario farmers need to continue to watch the markets and keep an eye on South America. There is still time for something to change in the big crop that’s coming off there. Also keep in mind that we will have another March WASDE report coming up as well as the big Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. Then there are the Black Swans, those market events that happen which nobody sees coming. You tell me when they will happen.

The challenge for Ontario producers is to balance all of these market factors. It is difficult, but the profession we chose means risk is almost part of our lifeblood. Managing that risk is a continuing experiment for all of us. Markets will continue to be fluid but so will be our ability to price our grain. Each trading session is an opportunity for us. Daily market intelligence will be key. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Written by Philip Shaw BSc(Agr.)MSc.

January always represents a pivotal time in grain markets as well as farms across the Great North American corn belt. There is always a recalibration but much of it usually has to do with the January USDA report which represents the final numbers on the crop put to bed last year. Future spreads and basis are important but so are the numbers in these USDA reports as they are dialed in to the trading algorithms which generate futures prices around the clock. The January report historically can be explosive for volatility.

This year was one of those years. On January 12th the USDA raised corn production to 17.02 billion bushels increasing yield by half a bushel as well as increasing harvested acreage. The corn yield is now forecast to be 186.5 bushels per acre which was way above pre report estimates. The USDA also bumped harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres pushing it up to 91.3 million acres. This was a shock to the market and nearby corn futures plummeted $0.24 on the day. Old crop carryover was bumped up to 1.551 billion bushels while new crop carryover was increased to 2.227 billion bushels.

While the corn number was wildly bearish, soybeans were much more benign in comparison to corn. The USDA had a slightly increased harvested acreage of 80.4 million. It kept yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre putting the total domestic crop at 4.262 billion bushels in 2025. The new crop ending stocks for soybeans totaled 350 million bushels which was up 60 million bushels from last month. The USDA increased Brazilian production to 178 MMTs while keeping Argentinian production at 48.5 MMTs. USDA set planted area for winter wheat in 2026 to be 33 million acres which is down 1% from last year and 2% from 2024.

On January 16th corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Wheat was higher. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.24 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.49 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.69. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.18 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of January 16th closed at $59.44/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.97/gallon, down vs the $2.04/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 16th, 2025, was .7188 US, down vs the .7263 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

This is a more classic Canadian winter than we’ve had in the near past. Snow and cold temperatures have inundated large parts of the province which can be a double-edged sword. Yes, it is normal Canadian January weather but at the same time there is still some Ontario corn left out in the field. Also too, the snow cover will provide some insulation for the winter wheat lying dormant underneath it.

Basis levels are either the same or have increased slightly since the last Market Trends report. This reflects the Canadian dollar still fluttering below the 72 cent US level. The Ontario corn basis level is similar to what it has been in the past few years with the eastern Ontario basis being much higher than southwestern Ontario. This is historical but it also reflects dry weather experienced in much of eastern Ontario this year hurting corn yields.

Both corn and soybeans will be exported out of Ontario and Quebec this year. All of it is a reflection of price but it’s also a reflection of infrastructure. Port expansions and improvements at ADM Windsor, Port of Oshawa, the new Picton terminals, the Port of Goderich, and the Port of Johnstown will only help grain movement. Exports are one thing and value-added domestic opportunities are another. The latter would be preferable and hopefully many new value-added projects are in the pipeline

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.26 over the March 2026 corn futures on Jan 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.55 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.91 to $3.11 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.61. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.57 bu. range. On January 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.32/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The USDA hit us pretty hard with the big surprise hardly anybody expected. When you see the USDA final number on corn come in outside the various trade estimates it means almost everybody was surprised. Of course, the biggest surprises were the increase in yield and the much bigger corn harvested acreage increase. One might ask how does the USDA predict 4.5 million acres of corn harvested then they predicted last July? It’s fuel for the conspiracy theorists.

It will likely be a few years before we truly understand what happened. However, one theory that is being reported is the good crop with good yields filled up bunker silos with silage earlier than normal. What happens when these silos are full, then the rest of the corn goes into the pipeline and shows up in harvested acreage. There was a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres which would result in 200 million bushels of additional yield. The market simply was not expecting this.

The USDA report was not particularly bearish on soybeans compared to corn. However, acreage was up slightly. Keep in mind that crush statistics are very good in the United States reflecting their commitment to biodiesel. For instance, the soybean crush is up approximately 285 million bushels over the last two years. There are commitments for an increased share of soybeans going to biodiesel. In 2025 this number was 3.3 billion gallons for biodiesel. The hope is to get it up to 5.5 billion gallons in 2026 and beyond. This blending credit equation is possibly being delayed by the supreme court considering the legality of tariffs. The blending credit is highly political and will be affected by the run up in the midterm elections.

Corn

17.02 billion bushels of corn was a real wake up call for the corn market and it is hard to shake the big negativity. Keep in mind that old crop took the brunt of this and December corn held up relatively well. Last year December corn did not get above $4.80 a bushel and at the present time we’re hovering around $4.50 a bushel. It is splitting hairs but in a bearish environment that might be a positive.

Keep in mind that the 2.2 billion bushel ending corn stocks created by such a big crop puts a cushion on any price increase for old crop corn. However, keep in mind there is lots of risk ahead. We still have to get through the Brazilian Safrinha crop as well as our new North American corn crop. We are always only one weather event away from a price increase. The world needs the corn as demand is so strong.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 9th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Believe it or not even with the slightly bearish tone in soybeans from the USDA report, prices are still in a yearly uptrend. The decrease in price since mid-October might have dialed in a lot of the bearishness of late.

Keep in mind that the gorilla in the room China has already bought 12 MMTs of American soybeans and there is unlikely to be more. Trade wars might be easy to win but it’s pretty clear China is looking elsewhere for their soybeans. Who could blame them with Brazil set to produce another 178 MMTs soybean crop. This continues to weigh on soybean prices in both the short and long term.

The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat is bearish but what else is new. In fact, with such a bearish USDA report you would think that maybe wheat would join in sending everything down. However, that did not happen in many ways the wheat complex shook off the bearish nature of the move in corn. Also too, the Chicago futures contract has holding above the $5.00 level when there are probably a few reasons to go lower. In many ways, you might say that the wheat prices have the negativity already priced in. Keep in mind and the last USDA report had wheat domestic stocks and global stocks raised.

With Ontario wheat currently underneath, snow cover it is always hard to tell where we’re at. With the likely number around 1 million acres of wheat Ontario producers will be hoping for better prices. At the present time $6.57 for wheat off the combine this July doesn’t have a lot of people rushing to the sales trigger. However, we must remember that price is much better than we received last summer. As January grows older and February comes about, Ontario wheat producers will be hoping for better price prospects ahead. The Canadian dollar fluttering under $0.72 US continues to be a stimulus for cash prices.

The Canadian dollar gained over 2 cents in December, and it looked like things might be improving. However, since then the Canadian dollar has settled again under $0.72 US which is adding stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. As per usual the Canadian dollar is usually valued as an inverse to the US dollar. However, at the present time gold and silver are surging almost as a hedge to the erratic behavior of the US dollar which is becoming a bit more volatile with some of the economic musings coming from the American administration. Will the Canadian dollar head into the $0.60 range or will it re-up and go back into the 80-cent range? It is also hard to tell but it will depend on how confident the currency traders are in Canada. That will have big implications for Ontario cash grain prices.

Geopolitics have been boiling in the first part of January. What we saw was the removal of the President of Venezuela and an ongoing push by the American administration to take over Greenland. At the same time, we have the same Russia and Ukraine war going on. Grain is being traded just like oil is being traded and there is enough geopolitical instability just to raise uncertainty further. This instability will affect our grain futures prices as well as our currency markets. We have to be ready for this instability to affect grain prices.

As January gets older keep in mind it is late summer in the southern hemisphere and those soybeans are growing well. There are some soybeans harvested in January in Brazil, but the main harvest will come along in February and March. This always holds out the possibility of a “weather market” affecting our grain futures prices. We need to be ready for that. It will likely happen.

The January 12th USDA will continue to reverberate throughout the grain complex. Make no mistake, it was negative on so many fronts especially for corn prices. However, put it in the rear-view mirror, hopefully there will be better times ahead for prices and maybe the USDA will shock us to the upside someday. The challenge for Ontario grain farmers has to balance all of these marketing factors. There are futures prices and then there are cash prices and then there is that big job of balancing what makes sense in Canadian dollars. As we move ahead, our crop planning for this year will continue. With that, our risk management challenge will continue to ramp up. Daily market intelligence will be key to future marketing decisions. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.