October, 2021. Luna docks at Grand Marais, Michigan, and meets a woman named Ellen who has lived on the shore of Lake Superior for forty years. Ellen claims she can measure the ice before it forms — that she can feel the weight of the coming winter in her bones. At first Luna thinks it's just local superstition, but Ellen shows her a notebook filled with dates and depths, each winter's ice thickness predicted months in advance, never wrong. Then Ellen tells her about the winter she didn't measure — the winter of 1976, when a man walked out on the ice and didn't come back. And she shows Luna something she found in the ice that spring: a wedding ring, still warm to the touch, with an inscription that reads 'Until the thaw.' This is a story about grief that freezes solid, about the things the lake refuses to give back, and about the difference between predicting the ice and understanding what lies beneath it. Luna leaves Grand Marais with the ring in her pocket, and she cannot get it warm.