Growth, Brands and More

Filiberto sits down with Dennis Draeger and Marco Bevolo to go through a Shaping Tomorrow report on the K-shaped split in consumer goods. Demand is moving to premium or to value, and the middle price tier is emptying.

Dennis builds four scenarios on two open questions. Does the K deepen, or does the middle fill back up? And do private labels keep gaining on brands? In one scenario, quality-value convergence, brands and own label compete on quality per price until the line between them blurs.

The picture changes by region. Private label already holds about half of European supermarket sales. In the US, retailers sell premium own label, often at A-brand prices. In India and China, premium reaches buyers through sachets and small packs. In Europe and North America, premium now rests more on efficacy and scientific proof than on heritage.

Marco turns this into four decisions for the next planning cycle: move each mainstream brand up, down or out; write a separate value-tier playbook for each region; audit any premium claim that rests on heritage alone; and give the C-suite a regional early-warning dashboard.

The last part of the conversation ranges wider. It covers Lidl behaving like a cultural brand, younger shoppers, microfactories, the Guinness brewery as a destination, and Marco’s example of Nestlé’s Russian operations being taken over by the state.00:00 Guests, the report and the K-shape question

09:56 Four scenarios for the next five to ten years

15:10 What drives premium: efficacy, private label, sachets and oil

19:31 Why the K looks different in the US, Europe and emerging markets

25:39 Four strategic implications for the next planning cycle

37:52 Beyond the report: Lidl, Gen Z, microfactories, Guinness and geopolitics

Host Filiberto interviews Pippa Bailey, Head of Strategy and Innovation at CRG Global, about her career in sensory and consumer psychology, research innovation, and sustainability across consumer packaged goods. They discuss how to make research more useful by clarifying real business questions, using multiple data sources, and testing hypotheses while maintaining methodological rigour. The conversation explores category “blurification,” the role of micro- and nano-content creators for early ideation and communications, and how technology enables self-ethnography and passive measurement in shopper and product testing. Bailey explains sensory semiotics—how meaning and expectations from cues like texture, colour, and language shape product experience and repeat purchase. They close on GLP-1’s wide-ranging impact on consumer behaviour, households, and research norms.00:00 Welcome and Introductions

00:44 Pippa’s Research Journey

05:45 Blurring Categories and Needs

08:07 Making Research Useful

13:59 Experimentation and Rigour

18:14 Micro Creators for Insight

24:03 Shopper Research Evolution

31:28 Sensory Semiotics Explained

40:01 Beverage Taste and Polarisation

42:59 When Semiotics Don’t Travel

47:08 GLP-1 Disrupts Consumption

56:54 Wrap Up and Thanks

The K-shaped economy didn't create the barbell in FMCG portfolios. It accelerated a trend already twenty years in the making, and most manufacturers still measure it wrong.

In this episode of Growth, Brands and More, I'm joined by Todd Kirk of Middlegame, an FMCG marketing analytics firm. They build market structure models on Nielsen IQ data, increasingly with AI in the loop.

Todd worked both sides of that data. He started at IRI (now Circana), then moved client-side to Coca-Cola's brand teams. Today he applies that lens at Middlegame, built specifically for FMCG.

We open with the shrink-to-grow thesis and why the mainstream is being pinched from both ends. Then Todd walks through a live case study: a decomposition of sparkling wine sales in Ireland. It separates real incrementality from transfer demand, and shows exactly where a 2.3% retail value gain actually came from.

We close on why revenue growth management and commercial teams keep talking past each other. And on where AI genuinely earns its place in this kind of analysis.

If you manage a portfolio that's being pulled toward value on one side and premium on the other, this one is for you.

In this episode:

00:03:49 — Welcome back: Todd Kirk and Middlegame's read on the "first moment of truth"

00:07:54 — Defining the K-shaped economy:

00:13:48 — Beyond price: multi-banner shopping and the private label upgrade

00:16:02 — From price-pack architecture to portfolio interactions

00:26:06 — Case study: decomposing sparkling wine sales in Ireland

00:40:44 — RGM vs. commercial, market structure as a Rubik's cube, and where AI fits

How can international brands enter the ‘hot’ Polish Supermarket scene? What kind of insights should they use, and which should they dismiss?

Host Filiberto Amati interviews Dominik Wilk, now Poland country manager for German wholesaler Crevel Europe, on what international brands need to know to enter Poland's modern trade. He covers logistics, trade promotions, currency and payment-term variability, and how listings often begin as “in-and-out” supported by leaflets and social media before permanent placement. Key mistakes include pitching only product quality, ignoring shopper differences and geography, and treating listing as success; Winning requires ongoing support, preparation, patience, and a consistent strategy.

00:00 Polish Retail P&L Basics

07:19 Logistics, Pricing and Competition

14:37 Listings, Promotions and Retail Maze

23:27 Route To Market Playbook

29:16 Pitching And Listing Mistakes

35:13 Promotions, Trends And Final Advice

Is nutrition the next board-level risk for food and beverage companies? Do we need to install a Chief Nutrition Officer?

Aart Jan recounts a career spanning Unilever (including roles in Singapore, China, and leading the tea division), a Coca-Cola/Nestlé joint venture, and FrieslandCampina. In the latter, he served as corporate CMO and developed a nutrition policy distinguishing daily versus occasional products to grow healthier sales.

After leading fitness and nutrition platform fitchannel.com and selling it to investors, he now consults on applying marketing to public health, arguing health harm is driven more by consumption frequency and usage intensity than by penetration.

AJ goes to the core of his vision of a shift from ingredient accountability to impact and outcome-driven nutrition, enabled by wearables and glucose monitoring. For our guest, health is an emerging board-level portfolio risk alongside shifts in consumer demand and regulation.

Finally, we discuss GLP-1’s effects on cravings, category volumes, and family repertoires, and propose a chief health officer and portfolio KPIs focused on product role, frequency, and health outcomes.

00:00 Career Journey in FMCG

02:45 Health Platform Lessons

09:56 Health as Corporate Risk

37:45 GLP-1 and Demand Shifts

49:09 Chief Health Officer Future

What is happening in Spirits? Why are RTDs growing while the rest of the categories are not?

Filiberto hosts a discussion with Chris Maffeo and spirits veteran Olivier Rouche. Olivier recounts his 35 years at Pernod Ricard in commercial strategy & negotiation and his new consultancy, training, and coaching work. They examine the spirits industry’s rapid transformation as premiumization stalls, consumption slows in traditional markets, and demand shifts toward lower-alcohol options.

The group highlights operational and margin challenges for spirits companies entering RTDs, including reliance on third-party production, canning and small-format constraints, best-before dynamics, promo pressure, and retailer assortment tightening.

They distinguish multiple RTD sub-markets (value retail, grab-and-go, multipacks, premium on-trade cocktails) and expect more partnerships with bottlers/distributors. Olivier advises aligning RTDs with company strategy, quantifying margin dilution versus volume-driven value expansion, and ensuring sustainable long-term operations, while warning against rushed launches, cost-driven pricing, and ignoring local consumer differences.

00:00 Meet the Guests

01:12 Olivier's Career Shift

04:17 Spirits Industry Shakeup

13:27 RTDs Strategy and Execution

24:08 RGM Mistakes and Wrap-Up

What is a water sommelier? Selling water is both an art and a science.

In this Growth Brands and More episode, host Filiberto interviews beverage veteran and water sommelier Ganesh Iyer, who recounts entering the beverage industry before focusing full-time on water sommelier work. Iyer defines the role of the water sommelier and explains the art of pairing meals and beverages. He argues that water education lags in India compared to Europe due to a lack of cultural respect and hospitality training. He highlights common branding mistakes (such as generic messaging or an unclear value proposition) and emphasises tailored on-premise training, moving conversations from procurement to revenue, and future opportunities like water menus, culinary pairing, and meaningful functional benefits, and advises new entrants to define an uncopiable “moat.”

00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro

01:00 Ganesh Career Origins

04:59 Water Sommelier Explained

09:16 Key Water Attributes

16:42 Premium Water Positioning

25:34 Common Branding Mistakes

36:21 Training That Actually Works

47:35 Future Opportunities in Water

51:01 Final Advice and Wrap Up

What if sustainability needed to go beyond Carbon management to become a strategy?

In this episode, Adam discusses sustainability in FMCG, with an emphasis on localised water risk management. He touches on technologies for water efficiency and closed-loop systems, which are constrained by regulation in some regions, and highlights India’s zero liquid discharge practices. Water savings can also strengthen the business case through energy recovery and loss reduction, with wastewater serving as a bioindicator of inefficiency. He points to regenerative agriculture, intermodal transport, supplier engagement to decarbonise scope 3, growing customer demands for sustainability data, and future trends including nature metrics, risk pricing maturity, shorter supply chains, financial instruments, digital traceability, and collaborative action.

00:00 Water Risk Hotspots

02:25 Mitigation and Closed Loops

06:01 Resilience in Supply Chains

13:27 Scope Three and Supplier Pressure

18:39 Future Trends and Leadership

What if sustainability were not about doing good or looking good? What if it were about risk management??

In this episode, Filiberto interviews sustainability professional Adam Pawelas - a sustainability veteran in food and beverages - about how sustainability has evolved over 20+ years from compliance to operational excellence, CSR, and now ESG embedded in business strategy and finance. They discuss universal sustainability practices across industries: mapping stakeholders, identifying material topics, and clarifying internal and external motivations, with leaders differentiating themselves through future-proof asset design, portfolio choices based on product footprints, responsible sourcing for scope 3 impacts, embedding sustainability in risk frameworks, and resourcing commitments via incentives tied to sustainability KPIs. They address myths that sustainability is only a cost or is fading, arguing it is becoming more structured and important for resilience amid extreme weather and geopolitical shocks. The conversation highlights packaging complexity, regional differences in recycling systems and recycled content, and the growing role of EU reporting frameworks and peer pressure in driving action.

00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro

03:04 Sustainability From CSR to ESG

10:57 What Comes Next: Resilience

14:07 Leaders vs Laggards in Practice

20:53 Packaging Regulation and Reporting

Do large organisations really understand complexity? Or do they underestimate it?

The discussion argues that operations exist to manage organisational complexity but are often overlooked unless disruptions occur, making end-to-end understanding hard in large companies. On AI, it’s described as a buzzword whose operational impact is often oversold: automation isn’t new, and effective AI requires deep process knowledge, high-quality standardised data, documentation, and governance, plus costly model building, training, and controls, making business cases difficult in FMCG operations today; however, AI pressure may accelerate data standards and enable more end-to-end supplier-to-consumer data exchange. For growth strategy, the key operational advice is to start by asking why a “white space” exists, identify execution barriers early, and make explicit trade-offs (e.g., distributor vs creating a legal entity) based on timeline, control, capabilities, and scalability. On barbell portfolios, premium and entry-level require different production, logistics, skills, and standards, risking underutilised assets unless execution is deliberate and guided by a clear playbook. The concluding advice is to involve an operational “buddy” early and stay close to day-to-day operations to sense-check ideas and improve predictability.

00:00 Ops and Complexity Reality

03:49 Why AI Hype Meets Data

11:17 AI Governance and Standards

14:26 Making Growth Plans Executable

26:14 Barbell Strategy and Final Advice