Gulf International Forum's Majlis

Featured Speakers: Dr. Cinzia Bianco and Professor Luigi Narbone.

About the Book:

The post-Arab Spring collapse of decades-old regimes inaugurated a decade of re-shaping for the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa region. A multipolar disorder ensued, solidified by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Amid general bewilderment, the small monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spent the decade between 2011 and 2022 trying to re-shape regional equilibria as protagonists. This book applies an original theoretical framework to unpack the threat perceptions and strategic calculus driving the behaviour of these new impactful regional players. Six chapters look at the six GCC monarchies individually. The author challenges commonly held narratives and goes beyond attention-grabbing headlines and thus provides reading keys to the past, present and future of policy-making in the Gulf monarchies, middle powers destined to play an oversized role in the new multipolar world.

Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer and Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen.

About the Book

The Middle East is experiencing the world’s most prominent youth bulge. Yet many MENA economies’ institutional designs, both formal and informal, favor the power of business elites, systematically discriminating against young people joining the workforce or opening businesses, and thus limiting their ability to contribute to innovation.

Large youth populations can be a boon or a curse: nurtured and integrated, they can jumpstart stratospheric growth; but if alienated and confined, they can drain a society politically and economically. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are no exception to this perilous dilemma. This book explores the problem through a new concept, “creative insecurity”: a state’s subjection to an institutional ecosystem that is suppressing opportunities for innovation–to the extent that it is causing economic and political vulnerabilities, which in turn threaten national security.

Creative insecurity threatens the longevity of many states today. In this original, incisive study, Dania Thafer argues that GCC member-states should make it a national security imperative to cash in their demographic dividend, by averting the deleterious effects of ill-disposed elite politics. Investing in an innovation ecosystem that harnesses the talent of the youth majority will be crucial for the GCC’s successful transition to the post-oil era.

Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Holly Dagres, Dr. Abdolrasool Divsallar, and Dr. Hamidreza Azizi.

Event Synopsis

On May 19th, a tragic helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border resulted in the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and several other officials. In response to this devastating event, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would assume the role of interim president. According to Iran’s constitution, a new presidential election must be held within 50 days, with candidates subject to vetting by the Guardian Council—a stringent body known for disqualifying even prominent conservative and moderate figures. This suggests that significant shifts in Iranian policy are unlikely.

This incident occurs amid increasing domestic unrest and international pressures. Iran is currently facing numerous political, social, and economic crises, alongside global scrutiny over its contentious nuclear program and its deepening military cooperation with Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Since taking office, Raisi had enforced stricter laws, led a severe crackdown on anti-government protests, and adopted a hardline stance in nuclear negotiations with global powers. Furthermore, the long-standing covert conflict between Iran and Israel has recently escalated into open exchanges of drone and missile fire, underscoring the region’s volatility.

Among moderates, conservatives, and hardliners, who are the most likely candidates to succeed Raisi, and what factors will influence their chances? With Raisi being a potential successor to Supreme Leader Khamenei, how does his death alter the dynamics of the supreme leader’s succession? Should we anticipate any changes in Iran’s foreign relations, particularly with the West and in its support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict? Given that the presidential election will occur only weeks after the parliamentary elections, what impact might this have on Iran’s societal dynamics, especially among the youth and women who protested Raisi’s policies two years ago? What are the potential implications for Iran’s internal stability in light of the upcoming presidential election?

Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Courtney Freer and Dr. Michael Herb.

Synopsis:

In a dramatic shift in Kuwait’s political landscape, on May 10, 2024, Emir Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Sabah declared the dissolution of the nation’s parliament and suspension of key constitutional articles for up to four years, only weeks after recent legislative elections. During this period, the emir and the cabinet will wield the legislative powers traditionally held by parliament. This marks the third instance of such a suspension in Kuwait in the last four decades. The emir cited widespread corruption and power abuses, infiltrating numerous state institutions—including those in security, economics, and the judiciary—as the catalysts for this decision. He emphasized that these measures are essential to protect the nation’s paramount interests amid ongoing instability.

This significant development underscores a troubling pattern in Kuwaiti politics, where the frequent dissolutions of parliament and resulting stalemates between legislative and executive branches have impeded crucial investments, reforms and necessary economic and development projects. These reforms are particularly aimed at reducing the country’s dependence on oil revenues.

Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Kenneth Katzman, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, Dr. Ali Vaez and Natasha Hall.

Synopsis

On April 1st, an Israeli airstrike in Syria notably escalated tensions by targeting an annex of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. This strike resulted in the deaths of seven leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), among the casualties were Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. Their deaths represent the highest-level IRGC losses since the killing of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. This incident intensifies the longstanding tensions between Iran and Israel, adding to a history of targeted assassinations that include high-ranking officials from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas by Israel, exacerbating hostilities while stopping short of sparking a full-scale conflict. In retaliation, Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against Israel and the United States, with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promising retribution.

On April 14, Iran responded by launching hundreds of drones and missiles aimed at Israel. With the help of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, Israeli defense forces successfully intercepted all incoming projectiles, effectively thwarting the Iranian attack. Israel’s war cabinet is now deliberating potential retaliatory measures in response to what they perceive as an unprecedented aerial offensive. However, the consequences of any such retaliation are unclear and could potentially escalate tensions, risking a broader regional conflict.

Is conflict between Iran and Israel inevitable, or are strategies being employed by both nations to deter direct military confrontation and prevent an escalation? In response to the killing of IRGC leaders in Damascus, what strategies and means are available to Iran for retaliation? In what ways could Iran utilize its proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen to retaliate? How can the GCC states and other countries in the region contribute to de-escalating tensions and potentially mediate to prevent a regional conflict? How could an escalation between Iran and Israel affect Lebanon, Syria and Iraq? In the event that Iran attacks the United States military bases in the Middle East, what range of responses might be anticipated from President Joe Biden’s administration?

About the Book

The first English language political history of the Kuwaiti parliament, this book provides an unprecedented holistic treatment of grassroots contemporary Kuwaiti politics in English in over two decades, incorporating the country’s political dynamics into broader debates about the limits of authoritarianism and the practice of democracy in the Arab world, particularly in oil-wealthy states. Author Courtney Freer uses the lens of parliamentary elections as a means of understanding the political ideologies that have dominated in Kuwait since independence. As such, it situates the dynamics of Kuwaiti politics within broader political science debates about whether democratic institutions in “hybrid regimes” are meaningful arenas for popular contestation or only serve to enhance autocratic rule.

Given the varying portrayals of Kuwait as robust authoritarianism, “upgraded” authoritarianism, or a noteworthy site of democratic participation, The Resilience of Parliamentary Politics in Kuwait: Parliament, Rentierism, and Society focuses on the ideologies that have mobilized political blocs, rather than solely focusing on the institutions of political power themselves. Freer includes extensive fieldwork and the use of Arabic and English primary sources to assess and examine the institutional setting that Kuwait presents and traces the dominant ideological strands in the country, considering the comparative mobilizational potential of ascriptive identities like tribe and sect.

Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer and Dr. Courtney Freer.

Sixth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 3:20 PM ET – 04:30 PM ET. Panel title "Soft Power in the GCC: Sports Diplomacy, Mediation, and Cultural Industries."

Speakers:

Khalid Saffuri (moderator), Founder and President of the National Interest Foundation

Dr. Courtney Freer, Provost’s Postdoctoral Fellow, Emory University; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Dr. Khalifa Al Suwaidi, Research Fellow, Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy

Fatima Al-Dosari, Executive Director, Qatar America Institute for Culture

Fifth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 3:20 PM ET – 04:30 PM ET. Panel title "The Gulf’s Ambitious Climate Action: Renewables, Green Policies, and Emission Reduction."

Speakers:

Dr. Wafa Al-Daily (moderator), Board Member, Gulf International Forum

Princess Noura Bint Turki Al Saud, Founding Partner, AEON strategy

Ben Cahill, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, Adjunct Professor of Energy Security and Director of the Center for Energy Security and Diplomacy, The International Institute of World Politics; Founder and President, SVB Energy International

Dr. Gawdat Bahgat, Professor of National Security Affairs, National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Study; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Fourth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 2:00 PM ET – 03:10 PM ET. Panel title "The Future of Knowledge Production in the Gulf: Media, Social Media and Artificial Intelligence"

Speakers:

Zaid Benjamin, Journalist and Blogger (moderator)

Dr. Khalid Aljaber, Director, MENA Center

Dr. Mohammad Alrumaihi, Professor of Sociology, Kuwait University; Board of Directors Member, Gulf International Forum

Joyce Karam, Senior News Editor, Al-Monitor

Abderrahim Foukara, Bureau Chief for the Americas, Aljazeera

Third panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 2:00 PM ET – 03:10 PM ET. Panel title "Creative Insecurity: Disruptive Technologies and Youth Potential in the Gulf"

Speakers:

Dr. Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou (moderator), macroeconomist at the GeoEconomics Center, the Atlantic Council; Assistant Professor of Economics, American University in Washington, DC; Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Dr. Dania Thafer, Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Dr. Racha Helwa, Director of the empowerME Initiative, the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East

Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East, the Baker Institute; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum

Dr. Ghiyath Nakshbendi, Senior Professorial Lecturer, American University Washington, DC