While Trump Acts as if Time Is on His Side, the War in Iran Needs to End Before Israelis and Gulf States Run Out of Patience – and Interceptor Stockpiles

A French Initiative Offering Lebanese Recognition of Israel in Exchange for a Cease-fire and Limited IDF Withdrawal Is Under Review in Jerusalem, With Washington's Support Seen as Key to Advancing Direct Negotiations

In the U.S. President's Vision for the Middle East, His Goal for Iran Mirrors His Approach to Venezuela: Installing a Compliant Regime That Aligns With American Economic Interests. Democracy Is Not Part of the Plan, and Neither Are Israel's Long-term Interests

Analysts Say Damage to Regional Production Facilities – Not a Closure of the Strait of Hormuz – Poses the Greatest Risk to Global Supply, Though Prices May Fall if the Conflict Is Contained

Khamenei Prepared for His Death Since the June War With Israel, While Iran's Capacity to Replace Him and Fight a Prolonged War of Attrition May Push Trump to Make Do With Tangible Military Achievements. But as a Vacuum Forms, Different Groups Are Vying for Power – Which May Put the Regime in Danger

Netanyahu (With On-off Support From Trump) Is Now Explicitly Pushing for Regime Change in Iran, and His Government Has Fixated on the Controversial, Though Galvanizing, Son of the Last Shah as Their post-Islamic Republic Contender. Just Don't Mention His Father's Brutality

Conversations With Foreign Diplomats Suggest Many Recognize Israel's Concrete Steps to Displace Palestinians and Annex Their Land. But With Their Main Priority Being to Keep Netanyahu Moving Forward With Trump's Gaza Plan, They Are Less Inclined to Press Him Over the West Bank

From Demanding Israel's President Grant the Prime Minister a Pardon, to a Potential Escalation With Iran, How Much Harder Can Trump Campaign for Netanyahu to Win Israel's Elections, Due Later This Year? But Despite the Trajectory, a Kerfuffle or Worse Could Change the Script

Just as Observers Do Not Know What Trump Will Decide or When, in Iran Too, Working Assumptions Are Mixed With Speculation, With All Scenarios Considered. While a Limited American Strike Might Provoke a Tit-for-tat Response, It Could Also Spark Chaos Across the Middle East

The U.S. Is Approaching the Precipice of War Without Articulating Even the Vaguest Vision for What Follows and With Few Forces, Domestic or International, Able or Willing to Challenge Trump or His Administration. Netanyahu, With His First Gamble Against Iran Having Paid Off Last June, Is Prepared to Go All In