Happy New Year and all the best for a healthy, prosperous and secure 2022!

Now, for a reality check. There’s a real chance that the year ahead will see warfare breaking out, possibly globally, unlike anything ever seen before. All other things being equal, perhaps as soon as March, post-Olympics, the Chinese Communists may be ready to attack Taiwan and/or India. Conditions may be ripe for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And Iran is likely to have the Bomb, prompting it to strike Israel – or vice versa.

It may still be possible to deter such traumas, but only if we understand the danger and rise appropriately to it. This will require that we pull together and are robustly led.

In the hope of encouraging such responses, our Center for Security Policy is launching today a Countdown to Conflict.

Stay tuned for updates.

This is Frank Gaffney.