Happy Trading Frens

Long term yields around 5.8%, time to buy

My Top Ten Stocks: AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, JPM, META, MSFT, NVDA, MA, V

1. ​Wait for one of these stocks to drop 20-25% from the all time high (easy to do the math when looking at a chart)
2. ​Buy a small amount, 5-10% of your total portfolio, ignore the news, “professionals”, and even your friends who are panicking.
3. ​Wait 1-12 months
4. ​$$$

It’s a good idea to trim as you make money. Maybe you trim every +20% but this is up to you.

When you’ve made 50% or more, you can decide to sell all your shares of a stock (or hold forever and keep trimming) so you can use the money for another stock.

If the entire stock market is down 20% or more, make your life easier and just buy the S&P 500.

Despite all the fomo, don’t apply this strategy to other stocks because they are not as consistent as the largest US companies. Remember, liquidity is king and everyone in the world will always want to own the largest US stocks—can you say the same for other companies?

Spoiler alert: the answer is no

Be patient because on average, you’ll see 7-10 buying opportunities each year. That’s more than enough for a semi-passive investor who doesn’t need to contantly watch the stock market every day.

Thanks and let me know if you have any Qs.

Welcome back loyal servants, slaves, and paid friends.

Today I briefly talked about the KOSPI, Samsung, and SK Hynix and gave a broad but sensible explanation for why it still isn't a good idea to buy (especially leveraged ETFs).

And in the complete opposite of brief, I explain why I started the Substack, why the articles are written the way they are, and how I'm using the smol proceeds from the $5/month subscriptions to help very small non profits in each country I visit. You don't have to pay to read the articles but if you do, know that I plan to donate half of the subscription revenue to a non profit that really needs it and deserves to be helped.

Please don't jump off any bridges.

C U Next Time

My clickbait title has captured you and now I'll make a billion.

We discussed the SKEW Index and how to use it to predict market drawdowns, and why you're an idiot for trading QQQ options instead of SPY options (or SPX & /ES if you're a super non-idiot).

Also, some creepy bois hang out on stage and don't even say anything like weirdos. #RIPPrncsDiana

I went to South Korea and told every Korean I met to buy $MSFT at $360 then it rallied above $420 in less than two weeks. I humbly accept the title of Lordship they will surely offer me upon my return to their fair country.

Also, selling put spreads on US Treasuries when they're around this level is easy money (ALLEGEDLY).

Also, as well, ryan cohen is a fkn moron and the deal for $EBAY will not go through.

Also, also, I explain some boring economics and basics of global monetary policy for people who want to learn to read good and do other stuff good too.

SPY is nearing a 10% correction, MSFT is an obvious value play (allegedly), and my trusty sidekick Princess Diana tries to convince me to let him continue to exist. Also, some random guy explains why Bitcoin is #1 ("it buys s**t").

I tell you what you probably already know, Sol gaslights me while his mom or cat or something makes sounds in the background, and Andy reads my mind when I think about ending the talk so he requests to speak.

Discussion of stress in the private credit markets, sectors exposed, the probability of crisis, and how to use this information. Then I have useless conversation with you, my indentured servants.