🔗 GUEST LINKS
- Raphael Zagury (LinkedIn): https://www.linkedin.com/in/rzagury/
- Elektron Energy: https://elektronenergy.io/
- Twitter/X: @alphazeta ("Here Be Dragons" & monthly mining reports)
🛠 SPONSORED BY
- Luxor – Mining software, firmware & hashrate tools
https://luxor.tech/
- Altair Technology – ASIC hardware, replacement parts & mining infrastructure
Code: HASHRATEUP
https://altairtech.io/aff/125/
📄 OVERVIEW
Everyone's leaving Bitcoin mining for AI. Raphael Zagury — co-founder & CEO of Elektron Energy, one of the largest private Bitcoin miners in the world — explains why they're doing the exact opposite.
We break down the first-ever hash rate bear market: why this cycle feels different, why hash rate has been grinding down since October (not crashing like the China ban), and what happens when 60-70% of machines get wiped out at the next hashprice halving. Raphael makes the contrarian case that right now is one of the best times ever to start mining — if you can survive on the left side of the cost curve.
We also get into why Elektron refuses to pivot to AI/HPC, how they pitch mining to institutions like Fidelity, the self-correcting mechanism in hashprice, and why stranded energy in Brazil and Africa is the real opportunity nobody's pricing in.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 – Intro
0:47 – World Cup, bear markets & Bitcoin cycles
2:49 – The first-ever hash rate bear market explained
3:36 – How this affects one of the largest private miners
3:53 – Why this isn't the China ban (gradual grind vs sharp drop)
5:33 – Why miners are fleeing to AI/HPC
6:50 – Why Elektron sees this as an opportunity
8:19 – The risks in AI/HPC nobody is pricing
9:05 – Pitching mining to Fidelity & institutions
9:30 – Unit economics: mining is still profitable
10:32 – Cost curve & the self-correcting mechanism
11:14 – What happens when 60-70% of machines shut off
13:02 – Why institutions love contrarian miners
14:37 – The AI pivot & hash rate on the way back up
16:32 – When does mining beat just buying Bitcoin?
19:08 – Why this story is so hard to tell investors
20:25 – Market share, path dependency & hash rate dynamics
22:20 – Why now is one of the best times to start mining
22:45 – Capital & capital structure in mining
23:40 – Why the AI boom will boom and bust
24:19 – Building the optionality stack around energy
25:17 – Why AI/HPC innovation is still dangerously early
28:34 – electronics.dev: open-sourcing mining research
30:29 – The efficiency curve (log scale) explained
31:50 – Predicting the S23s with a regression line
32:14 – Why efficiency gains are about to flatten
32:42 – Network composition: S19s, S21s, S23s
33:38 – Machine-by-machine break-evens & cost to mine
34:58 – What a hashprice halving does to the network
36:11 – Summer heat & temperature-sensitive machines
36:36 – The shareholder-money era & underwater machines
40:17 – Stranded energy: wind in Brazil, curtailment credits
42:19 – Bitcoin's only customer is the protocol
42:39 – Old S19s at $30: 6-month ROI vs 10-year energy ROI
43:11 – Why Raphael is bullish on mining in Africa
47:28 – Speaking the language of energy & TradFi
48:08 – Batteries vs miners: a tenth of the capex
49:54 – "Buyers of last resort, sellers of first resort"
50:47 – RAPID FIRE: hashprice bottom, recycling, security & Brazil
📊 KEY TOPICS
- The first hash rate bear market — gradual grind vs the China ban shock
- Why 60-70% of machines could turn off at the next hashprice halving
- The self-correcting mechanism in hashprice and the cost curve
- Why Elektron refuses to pivot to AI/HPC (and the mispriced risks)
- When mining beats simply buying Bitcoin
- The efficiency curve flattening as R&D dries up
- Stranded energy, curtailment & why Bitcoin is the most flexible load ever invented
🔗 RESOURCES
📊 HashrateUp Hardware Deals: https://t.me/hashrateup
📩 Free 5-Day Bitcoin Mining Course: https://hashrateup.com/newsletter-sign-up/
#BitcoinMining #HashRate #BearMarket #BitcoinVsAI #Mining #Elektron
