Hawk Talk

After the horrific school shooting in Parkland, FL, on February 14th, the "debate" about gun control has reignited in the US. Pundits on both sides of the issue are over-generalizing, taking assumptions to the extreme, and generally talking past each other. But one thing that remains constant is persistent cry for "common sense" gun regulations. What constitutes "common sense" varies from person to person, but they all involve the restriction or outright ban on certain types or styles of firearms. If the War on Drugs taught us anything, it's that prohibition doesn't work, but at the same time, any number of school shootings is too many. So if bans aren't a good option, what might be? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

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In the last two and a half generations, the number of students who go on to attend college, as a percentage of the population, has tripled. In 1959, about 20 percent of high school students went on to college. Since relatively few people were earning degrees, having one all but guaranteed getting a good, high-paying job. As a result, parents, high schools, and colleges began encouraging more and more high school students to go to college. Today, about 60 percent of high school students go on to college. But has the big push to get kids into college done anything to improve outcomes? Is the average $250,000 investment in a four-year degree at all worth it? If not, what alternatives exist? Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

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Regulatory capture is a problem in this country. It happens pretty easily. Politicians can't be experts in everything, so they turn to actual experts for help with regulating various industries. The experts tend to be those who have already enjoy some measure of success in their field. The regulatory suggestions that these experts give politicians tend to make life easier for the already-established experts and harder for those competing with them. This kind of thing happens all too often and leads to gross regulatory overreach, such as Uber working to ban private ownership of self-driving cars. How do we prevent this or, at the very least, strike it down after the fact? Join James Harrigan, Antony Davies, and special guest Robert McNamara from the Institute for Justice as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick hits

http://triblive.com/news/education/career/13275149-74/carlow-university-launches-micro-masters-program  https://micromasters.mit.edu/  https://www.edx.org/micromasters 

Foolishness of the week

http://reason.com/blog/2018/02/08/jeff-sessions-advice-to-pain-patients-ta 

Topic of the week: Occupational licensing and regulatory capture

http://ij.org/staff/robert-mcnamara/  https://cei.org/blog/uber-wants-make-it-illegal-operate-your-own-self-driving-car-cities  https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2720&context=articles 

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The fact that the United States' yearly deficit spending is set to soon top $1 trillion — an amount that is itself larger than most governments' entire operating budget — might be an indicator that the federal government has gotten too large. No matter which party is in power, the federal government and its attendant spending never really ceases to grow. We're taught in school a rose-colored tale of selfless public servants righteously chosen by solemn, considering voters to go to Washington to diligently represent their constituency's best interests. But is it true? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick hits

Federal deficit to top $1 trillion

http://reason.com/archives/2018/01/04/trillion-dollar-deficit-deja-vu

The DNC is broke

http://theweek.com/speedreads/752743/dnc-reportedly-dead-broke-rnc-nearly-40-million

Foolishness of the Week

http://reason.com/blog/2018/02/02/inside-the-insane-battle-over-arizonas-d

Topic of the week: The Security State and the Therapeutic State

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hist03z2.xls

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POP

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Immigration is, as happens fairly routinely, an important topic in the national conversation these days. It's generally well-accepted that the United States is "a nation of immigrants," and yet there remains a stubborn skepticism about new immigrants. These concerns generally branch into two broad categories: economic concerns and social concerns. Economically, citizens seem to think that immigrants are "taking our jobs" or "a drain on the system." Socially, citizens are of the belief that immigrants are "undermining American culture." But are any of these concerns warranted? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick Hits:

Denver hires homeless people

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/denver-hired-homeless-people-perform-day-labor-city-100-landed-regular-jobs/ 

Koch donating $400 million to candidates

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/27/politics/koch-republican-election-candidates-donate/index.html 

https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-research-and-data/holiday-spending/halloween-headquarters 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/04/fourth-of-july-spending-by-the-numbers.html 

https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/topindivs.php 

Foolishness of the week

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/01/24/580228837/a-dozen-camels-disqualified-from-saudi-beauty-pageant-over-botox-injections 

Topic of the week

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/Annual-Number-of-US-Legal-Permanent-Residents 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ 

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/size-of-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-workforce-stable-after-the-great-recession/ 

http://www.businessinsider.com/major-us-companies-founded-by-immigrants-2017-2 

http://startupsusa.org/fortune500/#appendix 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/19/news/economy/undocumented-immigrant-taxes/index.html 

https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/immigration2016.pdf 

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/advocacy/United_States.pdf

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/advocacy/United_States.pdf

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/undocumented-immigrants-and-taxes/499604/ 

http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/commentary/despite-the-rancor-there-is-much-that-unites-americans-20171116.html 

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Socialism is, whether we like it or not, in the national dialogue. And there are numerous people who claim to be socialists who, nevertheless, have a hard time defining what socialism actually is. Socialism, in it's purest form, indeed, has never been tried. But, by the same token, neither has undiluted capitalism. To understand which works better, we have to think about means and ends. Almost all of us want the same ends, but we disagree sharply as to the appropriate means. So how do we find the most efficient, most humane means? Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick hits

Sweden could launch its own cryptocurrency http://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-cryptocurrency-e-krona-riksbank-2018-1 

People believe that companies may five times more profit than they actually do http://www.aei.org/publication/the-public-thinks-the-average-company-makes-a-36-profit-margin-which-is-about-5x-too-high-part-ii/?utm_content=bufferaa12b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer  https://taxfoundation.org/state-gasoline-tax-rates-2017/  http://gasprices.aaa.com/  http://fortune.com/2017/06/07/fortune-500-companies-profit-apple-berkshire-hathaway/

Topic of the Week: Socialism

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-03-08/celebrate-american-womens-economic-freedom-on-international-womens-day

www.wsj.com/articles/antony-davies-and-james-r-harrigan-for-gender-equality-you-cant-beat-capitalism-1425684094 

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-09-19/we-need-to-find-the-right-mix-of-government-and-markets 

http://www.antolin-davies.com/research/elp.pdf 

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Attorney General Jeff Sessions sent the country into a tizzy not long ago when he declared that the federal government would start cracking down on state-legal marijuana. This is problematic, but it's a symptom of a larger problem. Article I, Section 8, of the US Constitution lists the things that the federal government may concern itself with. Marijuana — indeed, any drug — is not on that list. In fact, a great many things that the federal government concerns itself with are not on that list. So how did we get to the point of having federal laws and regulations about marijuana and a number of other things? We had to have a Constitutional amendment to ban alcohol, so why doesn't the government need one to ban marijuana? James Harrigan and Antony Davies discuss this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick hits

Sarah Silverman https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/sarah-silverman-befriends-troll-insulted-pays-medical-treatment/ 

CT considers raising its excise tax on cigarettes. Again. http://www.courant.com/opinion/op-ed/hc-op-lafaive-ct-cigarette-tax-smuggling-0109-20180108-story.html 

What will mass-market driverless cars look like? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-12/gm-drops-the-steering-wheel-and-gives-the-robot-driver-control 

Foolishness of the Week

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/business/economy/irs-debt-collection.html 

  Topic of the Week: Federalism and Constitutional Amendments

Federalism and marijuana http://reason.com/archives/2018/01/10/federalists-cant-support-a-cannabis-crac 

Article One, Section 8 of the US Constitution https://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_A1Sec8.html 

Wickard v. Filburn https://www.oyez.org/cases/1940-1955/317us111 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wickard_v._Filburn 

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Despite its passage some time ago, recent attention has been brought to the impending implementation of a Washington, D.C., regulation that will require all professional childcare workers to have a college degree. This has raised a great hue and cry as it will ban a number of existing childcare workers from their chosen profession as well as having the effect of dramatically increasing the cost of childcare in the District — which is, incidentally, already incredibly high when compared to the rest of the country. Unintended consequences happen all the time in everyday life, but when legislators and regulators act, the consequences are on a much larger scale. Unintended consequences abound in pretty much every aspect of regulated life to various degrees. Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick Hits

 Man cited for sheltering the homeless (David Wilson)

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/elgin-greg-schiller-slumber-parties-homeless-cold-467714563.html

 Philip Morris getting out of the cigarette business?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/01/03/philip-morris-marlboro-wants-give-up-cigarettes-go-smoke-free/1001442001/

 Foolishness of the Week

 President Trump, apparently not interested in Steve Bannon’s criticism, seeks to block the release “Sloppy Steve’s” book.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-book-20180104-story.html

https://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-rage-tweets-about-wolff-and-sloppy-steve-bannon-phony-book-is-full-of-lies/

 Topic of the Week: Unintended Consequences

 Gun buyback

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ae0c/469a9f5d95dd2fc8112bcdadb614183aa520.pdf

 Seat belt laws

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260352

 Payday lending

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203806504577183240533438580

 Fishing quotas

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12098697

 CEO pay

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB116062249630690247

 Three strikes law

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0887403405277001

 Bounty on cobras

http://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-cobra-effect-a-new-freakonomics-radio-podcast/

 Mexico city air pollution

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ldavis/Davis%20JPE%202008.pdf

 California fuel economy mandates

https://web.stanford.edu/~goulder/Papers/Published%20Papers/Unintended%20Consequences%20(Pavley%20Paper)%20-%20JEEM%20March%202012.pdf

 Americans with Disabilities Act

https://economics.mit.edu/files/273

 Electrician licensing requirements

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01044518

 Red-light cameras

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/03/AR2005100301844.html

 Cash for clunkers

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16351

 Venezuela

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuelas-paradox-people-are-hungry-but-farmers-cant-feed-them/2017/05/21/ce460726-3987-11e7-a59b-26e0451a96fd_story.html?utm_term=.32c5dd1398b0

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What do you do on any given day that is not somehow regulated by government in some way? There really isn't much. In point of fact, there are well over one hundred thousand pages of federal regulations alone, to say nothing of state and local regulations. We have government-mandated guidelines for everything from space exploration to how your dog can behave in a city park. While many people concede that there is an acceptable minimum level of government regulation, and others maintain that there is no such thing as an unregulated market, even in the absence of government guidance, it's clear that as things currently stand, we are a highly overregulated nation. So if there is, indeed, a legitimate purpose for regulation, what is it? What are we trying to accomplish with these regulations? Who benefits? And how far is too far? Join James Harrigan and Antony Davies as they talk about this and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick Hits

Police killed in the line of duty

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/12/28/number-officers-killed-2017-hits-nearly-50-year-low/984477001/

26 year-old gives birth to 24 year-old

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/record-baby-26-year-old-gives-birth-daughter-frozen-24-years-ago/

Alcohol

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/12/28/how-many-alcoholic-drinks-too-many-per-week/822604001/

Venezuelan cryptocurrency

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/venezuela-oil-backed-cryptocurrency-to-launch-in-days.html

Foolishness of the Week http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pew-trump-media-three-times-more-negative-than-for-obama-just-5-percent-positive/article/2644448 This Week’s Topic

Magnitude of regulation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkNPjC0gVSo

What regulations did Trump eliminate?

https://cei.org/blog/so-what-regulations-did-trump-eliminate

Regulation of social media http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/354006-regulate-social-media-just-like-other-media

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/its-time-to-crack-down-on-facebook-and-twitter-commentary.html

https://www.cjr.org/analysis/twitter-egyptian-journalist-ban.php 

Regulating florists because dirt might be infected

https://goldwaterinstitute.org/article/protection-racket-occupational-licensing-laws-and/

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It seems, these days, that you can't turn on the TV or log on to social media without someone griping about how awful things are. They complain about everything, from taxes to avocados to bills to cell signal strength. But the truth of things is a lot rosier than popular media would lead you to believe. Global illiteracy rates are below 14 percent. Global rates of extreme poverty are below 10 percent. Despite there being more people currently alive on the planet than ever before, there are also more calories per capita than ever before. This is not to say that there aren't improvements to be made or that there aren't bad things happening, but perhaps bearing these facts in mind might improve our outlook on life. Join Antony Davies and James Harrigan as they talk about thankfulness and more on this week's episode of Words and Numbers.

Quick hits

Walmart employs 1% of Americans

http://www.businessinsider.com/largest-employers-each-us-state-2017-6

http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-employees-pay

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/business/walmart-workers-pay-advances.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/12/nearly-every-american-spent-money-at-wal-mart-last-year.html

High school reports 100% college placement rate

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2017/12/17/570255742/teachers-around-the-country-react-to-investigation-into-ballou-high-school

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2017/11/28/564054556/what-really-happened-at-the-school-where-every-senior-got-into-college

Data

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/09/how-americans-compare-with-the-global-middle-class/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/cell-phones-demography-nielsen-data-breaks-mobile-phone/story?id=11468925

https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/products/gear/entertainment/2005-04-10-brick-cell-phone_x.htm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

http://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/

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