HCM Market Brief

In this episode of the Market Brief, Doug Johnson and Dan Rinck are joined by Greg Middendorf to address rising client concerns amid market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conversation focuses on separating emotional reactions from disciplined investment decision-making and provides a clear framework for navigating uncertainty.

In this episode of the HCM Market Brief, Doug Johnson and Dan Rinck break down two of the most important—and widely discussed—forces currently influencing markets: escalating tensions involving Iran and growing scrutiny around private credit and private equity. While headlines have been intense, the conversation focuses on separating noise from signal and identifying what truly matters for investors.

Dan Rink discusses how the recent U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran has increased market volatility, particularly through rising oil prices due to risks around the Strait of Hormuz, but notes that the overall impact on U.S. markets has so far been limited with the S&P 500 down less than 1%. Drawing on historical precedent, he emphasizes that geopolitical conflicts rarely derail long-term market performance and suggests investors stay disciplined, as strong earnings, broad sector participation, and potential rebounds in software stocks could support equities if inflation and oil prices stabilize.

Doug Johnson CFA and Dan Rinck discuss how AI disruption fears are causing indiscriminate selling in software, financials, logistics, and other sectors, leading to sharp rotations into areas like staples, industrials, energy, and emerging markets—often disconnected from actual earnings fundamentals.

The hosts explore potential long-term economic effects of AI, including job displacement, deflation vs. inflation dynamics, government intervention, and consumer demand—while noting that current earnings growth, stable inflation, solid jobs data, and range-bound interest rates remain supportive of equities.

Finally, the conversation emphasizes maintaining diversification across growth, value, small caps, international, emerging markets, and alternative assets (such as commodities or gold), arguing that disciplined allocation—not headline-driven reactions—is the appropriate strategy amid uncertainty.

In the first HCM Market Podcast, Doug Johnson and Dan Rink discuss recent market volatility—highlighted by a sharp correction in gold and silver—alongside shifts in dollar strength, interest rates, and equity leadership, while emphasizing the importance of separating long-term investing from short-term speculation. Despite dramatic headlines, they conclude that economic fundamentals remain solid, opportunities are emerging in select areas such as software and value-oriented equities, and disciplined, diversified positioning remains appropriate.