Why are people having fewer children and what does this mean for our economic future? U.S. fertility rates have been declining for decades, now sitting well below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth. This long-running trend carries major implications for economic growth, fiscal stability, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare.In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, Professor Michèle Tertilt breaks down what economic research reveals about the forces behind falling fertility. She discusses how comparison motives—the tendency for individuals to shape decisions based on the consumption, lifestyles, or choices of their peers—may be contributing to declining birth rates across advanced economies. Drawing on her recent work, she highlights what policymakers might consider as they debate proposals ranging from tax incentives to expanded childcare to reforms aimed at balancing work and family life.

In a time of persistent inflation, fiscal strain, and global uncertainty, the question of central bank independence has taken on renewed urgency. Widely accepted as a cornerstone of economic stability, independence is now being reexamined as some governments push for more direct influence over monetary policy. Watch this December 8, 2025 webinar for a conversation with former top leaders of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank: former President, Gary Stern, and former Director of Research, Art Rolnick, and the Hoover Institution's John Cochrane exploring questions about appropriate governance of central banks in democracies–and the risks in governments exerting more political control to address today’s complex economic challenges. Panelists discussed historical perspectives, current research, and the future of central bank independence in an era defined by both crisis management and political pressure.

Artificial intelligence is advancing faster than most policymakers — and many workers — can keep up. In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, economist Kyle Herkenhoff joins us to break down what rapid AI adoption means for productivity, job displacement, wages, and the structure of the U.S. labor market.We explore whether today’s AI wave resembles the gradual diffusion of computers — or a deeper, structural transformation more akin to the shift from horses to cars. Herkenhoff discusses his recent research, how AI may reshape worker skill demand, and what these trends could mean for innovation, inequality, and long-term economic growth.

As the government shutdown stretches on, health policy sits at the center of America’s political gridlock. Recent legislative changes raise urgent questions about access, prevention, and long-term public health for millions who rely on the Affordable Care Act’s individual marketplaces for coverage.

In this episode of Heller Hurwicz Office Hours, economist Assistant Professor Anran Li joins us to discuss insights from her new paper, “Commitment, Competition, and Preventive Care Provision.” We explore how competition among insurers, shifting policy incentives, and reduced coverage can alter investments in preventive care and what these dynamics reveal about the broader economic trade-offs of health reform under the Trump administration.

How far can governments go in taxing trade before the global economy hisses?In this Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours episode, we explore how to quantify which products, firms, and supply chains feel the sharpest tariff impact. Professor Tom Holmes joins us to unpack how Trump's tariffs target IP-heavy industries and global brands and walks us through a new framework for assessing tariff exposure. Drawing on his work-in-progress “Tariffs for Tax Revenue: Brands, Distribution Chains, and Tariff Choice,” we explore what it means to “pluck the goose” of global trade and what it takes to walk the line between efficiency and outrage.🔑 Topics:
tariffs • trade policy • brand economics • intellectual property • innovation • revenue strategy • Trump economic policy • global supply chains • economic modeling

What does America’s increasing deficit mean for the economy? We explore the One Big, Beautiful Bill, demographics, and the risks to U.S. fiscal sustainability.

America’s rising debt is one of the biggest challenges for U.S. economic policy. At the end of 2024, debt held by the public stood at 97% of GDP and is projected to reach 117% by 2034. The new One Big, Beautiful Bill adds even more pressure on the nation’s long-term fiscal sustainability.

In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, Professor Hannes Malmberg of the University of Minnesota discusses how the One Big, Beautiful Bill impacts debt growth, what an aging population and rising inequality mean for the economy, and whether current fiscal policies set America up for resilience—or risk.

Listeners will gain insights into:

• U.S. national debt trends and projections

• The economic impact of the One Big, Beautiful Bill

• The future of American fiscal sustainability and policy

Wealth taxes are one of today's most debated economic policy topics and often proposed as a way to bolster increasingly strained government budgets, reduce income inequality, and make the tax system more fair. The Fall 2025 Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute roundtable featured Professor Florian Scheuer of the University of Zurich and HHEI Director Professor Kjetil Storesletten discussing the potential benefits and challenges of wealth taxes, highlighting recent experiences in Norway and Switzerland and discuss implications for implementing wealth taxes in the United States. Chris Farrell, a senior economics contributor for Marketplace and MPR News, moderated the discussion and audience Q&A.

In this special series of the podcast, we're focusing on the policy priorities of the second Trump administration and how research can inform our understanding of a rapidly changing economic environment.

Over the last several months, the Trump administration is leveraging federal power and resources to systematically dismantle the nation's tools to address climate change. Among other actions, the President has defunded climate related research, withdrawn from international agreements to reduce global warming, retracted clean energy initiatives and doubled down on fossil fuels to meet the nation's growing energy needs. In this conversation, economist Bob Litterman will share his perspective on what these changes could mean for identifying and mitigating climate related economic and financial risks.

In this special series of the podcast, we're focusing on the policy priorities of the second Trump administration, and how research can inform our understanding of our rapidly changing economic environment.

While recent talks between the United States and China have lessened the prospect of a total halt in trade between the world’s two biggest economies, the second Trump administration’s escalated confrontations with China is already having an impact. In this conversation, economist Kjetil Storesletten will share his perspective on how China is navigating the realignment of global trade relationships.

In this special series of the podcast, we're focusing on the policy priorities of the second Trump administration, and how research can inform our understanding of our rapidly changing economic environment.

Consumer frustration with high inflation after the pandemic was a big factor in the presidential election. The Federal Reserve's main tool to combat this inflation was higher interest rates, otherwise known as tightening monetary policy. While this approach has brought down inflation from the historic highs of 2022, it still hasn't hit their target of 2%. In this conversation, economist VV Chari will share his perspective on learnings from the last couple of years about inflation and monetary policy and the potential impact of President Trump's approach.