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Herd Immunity, US Murders and Game Stop
Podcast #11
Covid Cases Are Down more than 20% since their peak in the first week of January…which was also 1-2 weeks after the holidays when many of us travelled to be with our families.
As of Wednesday, Jan 27th, 25.6 myn vaccine doses had been administered here in the U.S. 82.5 myn doses have been administered in 59 countries worldwide, which means that we Americans who represent 4.3% of the planet’s population have received 31% of all vaccine doses, or more than 7x the per capita amount of our population vs the total population of the planet. Yeah, Trump did a horrible job. Americans have received more than 7x as many doses/capita than the rest of the world. PJ, did you catch Creepy, lying Joe Biden claim he inherited a mess regarding the vaccine rollout? What a stinking, rotten, liar!
According to the CDC and First Trust Advisors, as of Jan 20th, we had achieved 38% herd immunity. The Fauch….who by the way…is the highest paid federal employee at $417k/yr…(the president only earns $400k)…the Fauch, who by my estimation is a buffoon…has stated that we need a herd immunity as high as 90% to defeat the Chinese bat-shit fever. That implies that the R/0 of Covid is 10, which means that on avg, every person who catches Covid, infects 10 other people. The highest known R/0 of any known virus is measles at 12. An R/0 of 10 would make the Chinese Flu the second most contagious virus known to mankind. Thank you Chairman Xi!
The formula for Herd Immunity is simple… HI=1-(1/R/0). IF…and it’s a BIG IF the R/0 is 10, then Herd immunity would be acquired if 90% of our population (HI=1-1/10) has convalescent antibodies, ie they had Covid and have recovered and/or received a vaccine.
I suspect, from everything I have read, that the R/0 is closer to 4, which means herd immunity will be achieved when 75% of us have recovered from the virus and or have been vaccinated. Now, if you are an investor, this is REALLY important. We are administering 1.25 myn doses per day; half of which are second shots. That means we are fully vaccinating about 625,000 per day. Every month, we are adding 19,000,000 people to the list of those with full antibodies…. Plus all of those who recovered from Covid during that month. 19,000,000 complete vaccinations per month equals about 6% of our population.
So, by the end of February, about 46% of us will have antibodies…PLUS the addition of those who recover from the virus between now and Feb 28th. Let’s say, for the sake of argument that about 2% of the population recovers every month; that is on the conservative side, as it appears that about 3.5% of the population has contracted and defeated the virus every month. But…let’s use the number of 8%/month of the population that gains immunity every month. That means by the end of March, we should have 54% herd immunity.
By the end of April, we should be up to 62%
By the end of May, we should be around 70% immunity.
Before the end of June, we should reach full herd immunity…so, plan accordingly. Things will start-up slowly; I suspect the first cruise ships to dis-embark ports w/ paying passengers won’t be full….but will start to fill-up as the months drag on. Same goes for airliners, restaurants and hotels.
Understand that the stock market is the greatest discounting mechanism in the world…which simply means that equity investors look 6-9 months out into the future, and try to buy stocks before the herd figures out what is going on. So, cruise lines, airlines, hotels and restaurants should start to pick-up steam by the middle of summer…or about 6 months from now…as long as vaccine distribution continues to stay on track.
Novavax announced its vaccine is 89.3%...
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By Russ AndrewsPodcast #11
Covid Cases Are Down more than 20% since their peak in the first week of January…which was also 1-2 weeks after the holidays when many of us travelled to be with our families.
As of Wednesday, Jan 27th, 25.6 myn vaccine doses had been administered here in the U.S. 82.5 myn doses have been administered in 59 countries worldwide, which means that we Americans who represent 4.3% of the planet’s population have received 31% of all vaccine doses, or more than 7x the per capita amount of our population vs the total population of the planet. Yeah, Trump did a horrible job. Americans have received more than 7x as many doses/capita than the rest of the world. PJ, did you catch Creepy, lying Joe Biden claim he inherited a mess regarding the vaccine rollout? What a stinking, rotten, liar!
According to the CDC and First Trust Advisors, as of Jan 20th, we had achieved 38% herd immunity. The Fauch….who by the way…is the highest paid federal employee at $417k/yr…(the president only earns $400k)…the Fauch, who by my estimation is a buffoon…has stated that we need a herd immunity as high as 90% to defeat the Chinese bat-shit fever. That implies that the R/0 of Covid is 10, which means that on avg, every person who catches Covid, infects 10 other people. The highest known R/0 of any known virus is measles at 12. An R/0 of 10 would make the Chinese Flu the second most contagious virus known to mankind. Thank you Chairman Xi!
The formula for Herd Immunity is simple… HI=1-(1/R/0). IF…and it’s a BIG IF the R/0 is 10, then Herd immunity would be acquired if 90% of our population (HI=1-1/10) has convalescent antibodies, ie they had Covid and have recovered and/or received a vaccine.
I suspect, from everything I have read, that the R/0 is closer to 4, which means herd immunity will be achieved when 75% of us have recovered from the virus and or have been vaccinated. Now, if you are an investor, this is REALLY important. We are administering 1.25 myn doses per day; half of which are second shots. That means we are fully vaccinating about 625,000 per day. Every month, we are adding 19,000,000 people to the list of those with full antibodies…. Plus all of those who recovered from Covid during that month. 19,000,000 complete vaccinations per month equals about 6% of our population.
So, by the end of February, about 46% of us will have antibodies…PLUS the addition of those who recover from the virus between now and Feb 28th. Let’s say, for the sake of argument that about 2% of the population recovers every month; that is on the conservative side, as it appears that about 3.5% of the population has contracted and defeated the virus every month. But…let’s use the number of 8%/month of the population that gains immunity every month. That means by the end of March, we should have 54% herd immunity.
By the end of April, we should be up to 62%
By the end of May, we should be around 70% immunity.
Before the end of June, we should reach full herd immunity…so, plan accordingly. Things will start-up slowly; I suspect the first cruise ships to dis-embark ports w/ paying passengers won’t be full….but will start to fill-up as the months drag on. Same goes for airliners, restaurants and hotels.
Understand that the stock market is the greatest discounting mechanism in the world…which simply means that equity investors look 6-9 months out into the future, and try to buy stocks before the herd figures out what is going on. So, cruise lines, airlines, hotels and restaurants should start to pick-up steam by the middle of summer…or about 6 months from now…as long as vaccine distribution continues to stay on track.
Novavax announced its vaccine is 89.3%...