In My Right Mind

Podcast #38 Putin Xi

Let’s Go Brandon  

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for educational

purposes only and does

not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy

or sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any third party

or such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical and for

illustrative purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment of your

personal financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment

advice.  927-6400

CHINESE STOCKS:

I

rarely purchase equities in third world countries, but I believe China might

be an interesting equity play right now.  I was convinced that Chinese

Ch Xi Xingping was poised to invade Taiwan this year.  Remember folks

that Taiwan manufactures 64% of all computer chips made on this planet. 

China spends some $300 byn on computer chips…every year.  That’s more

than they spend on their entire military budget.  When I hear Ch Xi wax

poetically about reuniting w/ Taiwan, I roll my eyes because I understand the

desire to take Taiwan is purely financial and political

It’s

political because Ch Xi is up for re-election by the 25 person Politburo on

Oct 18 of this year.  Apparently Xi has locked-up hundreds of thousands

of fellow CCP members for corruption in his first 9.5 yrs in office, and some

of those guys are getting out of prison as their terms expire.  I have

read that they have the “long knives” out for Xi.  They literally want

him dead.  Keep in mind that only 1/13 Chinese are CCP members.

Starting

one year ago, Xi initiated a crackdown on Chinese tech companies.  Some

stock prices are down as much as 80% and many of the old-guard, hardliners

who owned shares in those tech stocks aren’t too happy w/ Ch Xi.

I

believe Ch Xi has watched Putin’s failed invasion of Ukraine and re-drawn his

plans.  Fox News is reporting that Putin has lost ⅕ of

his army in his first 4 weeks of fighting; 15,000 are dead, and 25,000 are

wounded or MIA.  Ukraine is going to have one hell-of-a time housing

10’s of thousands of Russian POW’s.  

So Xi

has watched this botched invasion, and more importantly the western world’s

reaction to it, and has decided to go w/ plan B.  I believe Plan B

x#37 Cars Social Security IRS

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended

for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an

offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product. All information

provided here is for educational purposes only and does 

not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any third party or

such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical and for illustrative

purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment of your personal

financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment advice

INFLATION AND YOUR CAR:

Once-depreciating vehicles are rising in value, and some recently

purchased ones are worth more now than their original price.

With car companies still trying to resume normal levels of factory

output, dealers have been left with a scarcity of new vehicles to sell at

stores, pushing many buyers into the used-car market where they are also encountering

limited options.

Used-car prices rose 40.5% in January from a year ago, according

to data released Thursday by the Labor Department, a jump that helped

accelerate U.S. inflation to an annual rate of 7.5% last month, a new

four-decade high.

Cars that were $25,000 new three years ago are $25,000 today.

The average price paid for a new 2021 model-year vehicle in April

was $38,585, according to J.D. Power. In January 2022—nine months later—that

same model-year vehicle was selling for an average of $48,765 as a slightly

used vehicle.

SOCIAL SECURITY:

Retirees can start Taking Social Security benefits any time

between ages 62 and 70, but for every month of delay, the payment increases.

Benefits are also adjusted annually to reflect increases in the Labor

Department’s CPI-W, a measure of inflation affecting blue-collar workers.

For example, someone born after Jan. 1, 1960, who is entitled to

$2,025 a month at age 62 would receive $3,587 before cost-of-living adjustments

by holding off on claiming until age 70. With a 5% inflation adjustment, the

benefit available at age 70 would be about $5,300.

Cost-of-living increases start at age 62, whether you claim or

delay, and continue for as long as you live. Based on the rise in third-quarter

inflation, the increase for 2022 was 5.9%, the largest since 1982, according to

Social Security Administration data.  BUT, inflation was up 7.5% last

year.  So even though S.S. payments went up 5.9%, the buying power of S.S.

payments declined by 1.6%.

A person who postpones benefits until age 70 instead of 62 would

have to live to 80½ years old to come out ahead.

TIPS

When inflation exceeds expectations, prices of ordinary bonds

typically get hammered. That is when Treasury inflation-protected securities,

or TIPS, tend to do well. 

Backed by the U.S. government, TIPS are bonds with principal and

coupon payments that adjust to keep pace with the consumer-price index.

The bond market currently expects inflation over the next decade

to average about 2.46%. That is the difference between the minus 0.51%

inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year

#37 Cars Social Security IRS

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended

for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an

offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product. All information

provided here is for educational purposes only and does 

not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any third party or

such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical and for illustrative

purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment of your personal

financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment advice

INFLATION AND YOUR CAR:

Once-depreciating vehicles are rising in value, and some recently

purchased ones are worth more now than their original price.

With car companies still trying to resume normal levels of factory

output, dealers have been left with a scarcity of new vehicles to sell at

stores, pushing many buyers into the used-car market where they are also encountering

limited options.

Used-car prices rose 40.5% in January from a year ago, according

to data released Thursday by the Labor Department, a jump that helped

accelerate U.S. inflation to an annual rate of 7.5% last month, a new

four-decade high.

Cars that were $25,000 new three years ago are $25,000 today.

The average price paid for a new 2021 model-year vehicle in April

was $38,585, according to J.D. Power. In January 2022—nine months later—that

same model-year vehicle was selling for an average of $48,765 as a slightly

used vehicle.

SOCIAL SECURITY:

Retirees can start Taking Social Security benefits any time

between ages 62 and 70, but for every month of delay, the payment increases.

Benefits are also adjusted annually to reflect increases in the Labor

Department’s CPI-W, a measure of inflation affecting blue-collar workers.

For example, someone born after Jan. 1, 1960, who is entitled to

$2,025 a month at age 62 would receive $3,587 before cost-of-living adjustments

by holding off on claiming until age 70. With a 5% inflation adjustment, the

benefit available at age 70 would be about $5,300.

Cost-of-living increases start at age 62, whether you claim or

delay, and continue for as long as you live. Based on the rise in third-quarter

inflation, the increase for 2022 was 5.9%, the largest since 1982, according to

Social Security Administration data.  BUT, inflation was up 7.5% last

year.  So even though S.S. payments went up 5.9%, the buying power of S.S.

payments declined by 1.6%.

A person who postpones benefits until age 70 instead of 62 would

have to live to 80½ years old to come out ahead.

TIPS

When inflation exceeds expectations, prices of ordinary bonds

typically get hammered. That is when Treasury inflation-protected securities,

or TIPS, tend to do well. 

Backed by the U.S. government, TIPS are bonds with principal and

coupon payments that adjust to keep pace with the consumer-price index.

The bond market currently expects inflation over the next decade

to average about 2.46%. That is the difference between the minus 0.51%

inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year...

Podcast #36 Olympics, Lithium and Defense Spending

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for educational

purposes only and does 

not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any third party or

such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical and for illustrative

purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment of your personal

financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment advice. 

927-6400

OLYMPICS:

I have to wonder if Mikaela Schiffrin rues her decision not to

take me up on my advice to skip these olympic games.  I have watched

nearly every race Mikaela has skied since she was 16 yrs old. A tech race (GS

& SL) have 4 components: The top of the first run, the bottom of the first

run, the top of the second run & the bottom of the second run.  Of all

four of those sections, where has Mikaela DOMINATED?  The 4th component. 

She owns the bottom of the second run.  Here, she and her coach (who set

the first SL run) decided she should go full-out, or all-in at the top of both

first runs.  I don’t get it at all.  Her strategy was at odds with

her strategy in all of her 73 WC victories.

LITHIUM, Part 3:

Several weeks ago we looked at Lithium-ion batteries for electric

vehicles.  You might recall that here in the U.S.

There are about 289 million vehicles on the road in the US, with

an average age of 12.1 years.

President Good Joe (always remember folks, Orange Man Bad, vote

for President Good Joe).  President Good Joe wants all American cars to be

EV’s. 

The Tesla Model 3 uses 48 kg’s (105 lbs) of Lithium hydroxide per

car.  

How many lithium mines do we have here in the U.S.?  The lone

U.S. lithium mine produces 3500 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate/yr. 

That’s enough lithium to build 73,000 Tesla Model 3’s/yr.  

“In 2019, Australia and Chile led the world in lithium extraction

at 52.9 and 21.5 percent, respectively. While China ranked third in lithium

extraction at 9.7 percent.”  

How is President Good Joe going to create green jobs when 84% of

all lithium mining occurs in Australia, Chile and China?

Collectively, the world produces 520,000 metric tonnes of

lithium/yr; enough to build 10.8 myn EV’s/yr, yet Pres. But, only 56% of

lithium is used in electric vehicles, 36% is used in cell phones and other

gadgets, with the rest being used in ceramics, glass and lubricating greases,

and to treat psychological dsiorders….which means with current worldwide

lithium production, we can only produce just north of 6 myn new EV’s/yr.

President Good Joe wants to replace our whole fleet of 289 myn

vehicles with EV’s by 2040.  At the current pace of mining, that would

take 48+ years if the U.S. used every available ounce of lithium mined in the

world. 

I constantly tell you folks that democrat leaders and activists

can’t do simple math.  Car makers sell some 17 myn cars/yr here in...

Radio Show #2022-3, Podcast #35 Chips, Green Germany, Border

Crisis Motivation?

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for

educational purposes only and does 

not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any third party or

such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical and for

illustrative purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment of your

personal financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment

advice.  927-6400

Value vs Growth, YTD:

Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (LCG): -13.27%

Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF (LCV): -3.33%

Vanguard S&P 400 Mid-Cap growth ETF: -12.64%

Vanguard S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF: -4.67%

Vanguard Small Cap 600 Growth ETF: -11.06%

Vanguard Small Cap 600 Value ETF: -5.19%

So far, value is SIGNIFICANTLY outperforming growth stocks YTD.

BTW, since interest rates have jogged-up slightly, Vanguard’s

long-term bond ETF is down 4.14% YTD.

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/list#/etf/asset-class/month-end-returns

A large part of any financial adviser’s job is RISK

MANAGEMENT.

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SEMICONDUCTOR

STOCKS:

This is really important folks.  We all need to start paying

attention to what’s happening in China and Russia; developments that could

possibly have a dramatic effect on Americans under the Biden

administration: 

What are computer chips used in?

Computers use computer chips.

Cars & Trucks have 30-100 microprocessors in them.

18 wheelers that deliver all of our goods use computer chips.

Airplanes use lots of computer chips.  So do satellite

communications & FAA radar systems.

Coffee makers & calculators, & TV’s and tv clickers use

chips.  Radios use chips.

Ovens & stoves & dishwashers, dryers and washing machines

all use chips.

Every factory that makes the stuff we buy uses a multitude of

computer chips.

Power tools use chips.

Gasoline pumps use chips.

Cash registers use chips.

I guarantee you that your bank uses computer chips.  And how

about your doctor and hospital?

Now For a Brief History of Taiwan:

As a result of the surrender and occupation of Japan at the end of

World War II, the island of Taiwan was placed under the governance of the

Republic of China (ROC).

Following the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the ROC

government retreated from the mainland as the Mao’s Communists proclaimed the

establishment of the People's Republic of China....

Unavailbale

Podcast #31 Build Back Broker, Biden Runs and Blumenthal

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended for

educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer

to buy or sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here

is for educational purposes only and does 

not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any third party or

such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical and for illustrative

purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment of your personal

financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment advice.   

Build Back Broker:

·        The Penn Wharton Budget Model has scored the 10-year cost of the

Build Back Broker package of salami slices of socialism at $4.6 trillion, but

the White House keeps claiming that the cost is “zero.”  When I tell you

folks that socialists can’t do simple math…ya think I am kidding? 

·        $4.6 tyn has a dollar sign, a 4, a 6, 11 zeroes and denoted

correctly it also has 4 commas.  That’s $4,600,000,000,000.  And

somehow, according to Joe Biden and all of his drooling idiot minions in his

White House tell you that $4,600,000,000,000 is actually just zero.  It’s

free.  

·        I guess if you went to Harvard that somehow $4,600,000,000,000 is

actually zero.  How would you like these clowns to be designing bridges,

airplanes and skyscrapers…if they actually believe in their cold little hearts

that 4,600,000,000,000 is equal to zero?

Of course, some democrats in congress claim that 4.6 tyn is

actually just 1.75 tyn.  Not too bright.  In reality, they hope that

YOU aren’t too bright.  So, let’s disassemble this pack of lies they are

foisting on you.  Remember folks, you can only believe what a socialist

says when he or she is threatening to revoke your rights.  Whenever they

give you estimates on what their socialist agenda is going to cost… those

estimates are ALWAYS lies.  ALWAYS!  Again, believe a socialist when

he/she threatens you…and that’s it.

·        Take the child allowance, which Democrats say will cost only $185

billion because it ends after one year. No one believes they won’t extend it

next year, and the year after that, ad infinitum. CBO says the real cost over

10 years is $1.6 trillion.  So the dimms are lying by more than 8-fold..or

860%. 

·         They peg their earned-income tax credit expansion at a cost

of $13 billion because it too ends after one year. CBO says the real cost is

$135 billion over 10 years.  That’s just a 10-fold lie.

·        An honest accounting of those two programs alone consumes $1.732

trillion, or nearly all of the $1.75 trillion that Sen. Joe Manchin has said is

the most total new spending he’ll support over 10 years.  But there’s so

much more.

·        Democrats phase out the child-care and pre-K entitlements after

2027 with a total cost of $381 billion. CBO says the real cost over 10 years is

$752 billion if made permanent.  And how could it be “transformative” (to

use Lyin’ Joe Biden’s word) if it’s not...

Radio Show #21-11, Podcast #30, Nov  2021:

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for

educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax

advice, an offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product; or an

endorsement of any third party or such third party's views.  All examples

are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only.  Please contact us

for an assessment of your personal financial circumstances and to obtain

personal investment advice

TRASH FROM RUSSIA:

Saule Omarova continues to make the case against her nomination to

be Comptroller of the Currency, as critics need only to quote her own

words. 

This is the same whacko who wants to close all banks and have the

federal government control your money movements, set your wages and dictate

supply chains.  You might recall she attended Moscow University on the

Lenin Scholarship.  She maintains the Soviet economic model is still

superior to ours.  These are the types of clowns the Bidenistas continue

to advocate for to run/ruin our government.

The latest example against her nomination is a video interview she

gave in February in which the Cornell professor opined on “the case for a U.S.

national investment authority.”

The conversation at one point turned to climate change and its

impact on fossil-fuel producers, and Ms. Omarova was on the case. “A lot of the

smaller players in that industry are going to, probably, go bankrupt in short

order—at least, we want them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate

change,” she said in the session that was part of the Jain Family Institute’s

“Social Wealth Seminar” series.

But then she adds that the response would be to set up a National

Capital Management Corporation that would “become a kind of equity investor at

that point, taking over management of those companies and basically leading

them through restructuring to a new technological basis and to a new

technological business model.”

So first put private companies out of business “in short order,”

then put government central planners to work to restructure them as the

political class wants. Give Ms. Omarova credit for candor. Most progressives

disguise their real intentions.

All of this matters because as Comptroller Ms. Omarova would have

enormous authority to regulate banks. It’s clear from this interview that one

of her policy ambitions is to deny capital to certain companies that she wants

to go bankrupt. Senators will have to decide if they want the Comptroller to be

a one-person systemic risk to the banking system.  WSJ

I PENCIL:

“I, Pencil, simple though I appear to be, merit your wonder and

awe, a claim I shall attempt to prove. In fact, if you can

understand

me—no, that’s too much to ask of anyone—if you can become aware

of the miraculousness which I

symbolize, you can help save the

freedom mankind is so unhappily

losing. I have a profound lesson to

teach. And I can teach this...

.

Podcast #30, FULL VERSION:

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is

intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment

advice or an offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product. All

information provided here is for educational purposes only and does 

not constitute investment, legal or tax

advice, an offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product; or an

endorsement of any third party or such third party's views.  All examples

are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only.  Please contact us

for an assessment of your personal financial circumstances and to obtain

personal investment advice.  927-6400

Let’s Go Brandon (Blocker).  I wonder

what percentage of neo-liberals listening to this show have no idea what “Let’s

go Brandon” means Dbach?

$100 invested in Bitcoin in 2009 would be

worth $62 myn today.  The market cap of Bitcoin is $1 tyn.  Several

years ago, on this show David, I dismissed crypto currencies because I didn’t

understand them, and because I was (and am not now) allowed to buy them for my

clients.  Clearly, I was wrong about crypto’s.  BUT this is NOT a

solicitation to buy or sell Bitcoin or any other crypto currency.

A guy named Preston Cooper analyzed 30,000

different bachelor’s degree programs for return on investment.

He found that 28% of those degrees have a

net negative return.

He also found that programs in engineering,

computer science, economics and nursing all yield a high return on investment,

increasing their students’ net lifetime earnings by $500,000.

But, a majority of degrees in art, music,

philosophy and psychology leave their AVERAGE students worse off financially.

One of the nation’s highest-return programs

is the computer-science major at Harvard University. This degree has an

expected value of more than $3 million. But attending the nation’s most elite

school is no guarantee of financial security. Harvard’s ethnic and gender

studies program leaves its students worse off by around $47,000 on average,

according to my estimates.

My school, SUNY Maritime College, offers

the highest mid-career earnings which is to say that 10 yrs after graduation,

the avg graduate earns some $175,000/yr.  But…it’s a military school, so

it is not for everyone.

explain to me what the party that created

Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare are going to do to rescue

those programs which will be insolvent:

SS:  dies in 2033

Medicare: becomes inoperable in 2026

Medicaid; 2026-2030 

JELLYSTONE:

A guy named Jacob Borden wrote an excellent

piece in the journal a couple of weeks ago about the Jellystone Caldera.

The Yellowstone caldera has exploded 3x

previously.  The last such eruption was 631,000 years ago; the one before

that was 669,000 years prior. It’s not a matter of if it’ll erupt but

when.  NASA’s JPL found in a 2017 study that the devastation of such an

eruption would exceed that of an asteroid 1½ miles wide crashing to Earth. 

That is ¼ the size of the asteroid that rendered the dinosaurs extinct.

In 2014 the U.S. Geological Survey modeled

the likely ash distribution from a Yellowstone super-eruption. They...

Radio Show #2021-8, Podcast #

DISCLAIMER:  This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer

to buy or sell any security or insurance product; or an endorsement of any

third party or such third party's views.  All examples are hypothetical

and for illustrative purposes only.  Please contact us for an assessment

of your personal financial circumstances and to obtain personal investment

advice

Note: For purposes of time, not all material here made it into the

podcast. It has been left in this script because it’s interesting. Thank you

Russ and PJ 

S&P 500 IN SEPTEMBER:

I reported to you kind folks out there in radioland at the

beginning of the month that September is historically the worst month in the

stock markets, w/ the S&P 500 typically losing 0.70%.  WHOOPS! 

As I wrote this on Wednesday morning, the S&P 500 was down

4.3% for the month.  So, expect to see lower account values when your

statements arrive next week.  No big deal; in the average year we

generally see a pullback of 13%, according to Fox Bus News.

This is from Robert Almeida, the Global Inv Strategist for MFS:

“The markets are awash in crosscurrents, so it’s critical to focus

on what’s material and filter out market noise. 

Profits are a function of revenues versus costs, and we think that

revenue growth is vulnerable and costs are likely to rise. 

We expect high-priced financial assets that deliver underwhelming

fundamental performance to be repriced while stocks and bonds of companies that

meet expectations may be in short supply, earning them a scarcity premium.”

“When things get complicated, I find it helpful to try to simplify

them. In its simplest form, investing is an exchange of capital for a stream of

future cash flows. The cost of capital is set by its providers based on the

riskiness of the investment and the probability of realizing promised cash

flows. What makes investing difficult, of course, is that the future is

unknowable. Investors can only theorize about a project’s potential for success

or failure in terms of a range of potential outcomes.

Technology has democratized information, and society is more

informed than ever before. We have infinite and instantaneous access to news.

However, I question whether that has improved investors’ ability to price risk.

As John Naisbitt writes in Megatrends, “We are drowning in information but

starved for knowledge.”

I won’t bore you with the details, but he goes on to say in his

conclusion that he is not suggesting a bear market or correction is on the

horizon. I don’t have that type of clairvoyance, nor do my strategist peers

(though some think they do!). Anyway, that’s not how we think about investing.

Looking ahead, we expect high-priced financial assets that deliver

underwhelming fundamental performance to be repriced. When valuations are high,

the market’s tolerance for disappointing data (even if...