Every time Joe Burrow misses 10 games or more in a season, he plays 16 or more the following year. Last year he played 9. You do the math.

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DJ and Kelcey wrap their division preview series with the AFC North— the final one before the Super Bowl picks drop — with eight prop bets powered by Outlier and two full sets of standings that land in very different places. DJ has the Bengals at 11-6 and the Browns at 2-15 with the first overall pick. Kelcey has the Bengals at 13-4 and the Browns at 4-13. The Bengals winning the division is the one thing they agree on without hesitation.

The Browns segment is equal parts honest and depressing. Five new offensive linemen, a genuinely promising young roster, and the one quarterback nobody wanted to start. DJ's bold prediction: at minimum three different starting quarterbacks in 2026. Possibly all four. Todd Monken looks like a lame duck head coach. The bar is the ground. The good news is the bar can't go lower than the ground.

The Bengals have the best receiver room in football when healthy — Ja'Marr Chase back from a hyperextended knee that reports say is fine, Tee Higgins healthy, Chase Brown as a multi-dimensional Alvin Kamara type, and a DoorDash driver from Atlanta who Joe Burrow called up, had him drive overnight from Atlanta to Cincinnati, and is now on the 53-man roster. That story is real. The Bengals are that team.

Lamar Jackson missed games, had his worst rushing season, and the Ravens still had a path to the playoffs on the final kick of the year. New OC Declan Doyle comes from the Ben Johnson coaching tree — which means more passing, more red zone throws, and Zay Flowers in what DJ describes as the Amon-Ra St. Brown role of this offense. Kyle Hamilton playing freely as a rover, not a traditional safety. A defensive line with Trey Hendrickson finally adding the pass rush that covered for old, slow corners in the back half of last season.

Then there are the Steelers, who stumbled ass-backwards into 10 wins and a division title with the lowest net point differential of any playoff team. Mike Tomlin is gone. Mike McCarthy is in. Aaron Rodgers is 43. Drew Allar is waiting. DJ and Kelcey cannot fully explain the Steelers and are done trying. They gave them 7-10 and 8-9 respectively and moved on.

Eight bets. Four teams. One wild division that ends every single year with more questions than it started with.

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The Detroit Lions had the best point differential in the entire NFC North last year — 68 points, more than the other three teams combined — and still finished last. That tells you everything you need to know about this division.

DJ and Kelcey continue their August preview series with the NFC North — every team picked game by game, eight prop bets powered by Outlier, and full season predictions. The Lions come in with Aiden Hutchinson returning, a proven offensive core, and an offensive coordinator who loves feeding his best receivers. DJ thinks last year was the anomaly. Kelcey agrees. Both have them winning the division at 12-5.

The Bears went worst to first on a heart attack diet — never won a game easily, never lost one they probably deserved to win either. DJ Moore is gone but Luther Burden steps in. Rome Odunze is healthy. Caleb Williams is entering year three. Kelcey has them second at 11-6. DJ has them second too. Their defense is the only question mark worth worrying about, and even that might be fine.

The Vikings are the most interesting conversation in the episode. Kyler Murray is now officially the starter with actual reps. Kevin O'Connell is 13-4 and 14-3 in the two seasons he's had a healthy quarterback for a full year. Justin Jefferson has cleared 1,100 yards in every healthy season of his career. Brian Flores builds defenses that play entirely different with a lead — and the Vikings haven't had many leads in recent years. DJ goes as far as saying he might put real money on them to win the NFC North. That is not nothing.

Then there are the Packers. Josh Jacobs on the commissioner's exempt list before the season even starts. Micah Parsons out to start the year. No Rashawn Gary. A receiver room that can't stay healthy. Jordan Love who's been the 7th seed in every playoff year of his career. Kelcey has them at 5-12, 0-6 in division. DJ is slightly kinder at 9-8. Both think they're walking uphill in ice skates while the other three teams roll boulders downhill at them.

Eight prop bets, four teams, and one division where all four teams have won it in the last five years.

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The Los Angeles Rams added Myles Garrett. They traded for Trent McDuffie. They're making a push for Aaron Donald to come back. Matthew Stafford is still throwing touchdowns in bunches, Kyren Williams hits 1,200 yards like it's a subscription service, and the supporting cast has no holes. They're the Super Bowl favorites at +550. The NFC West is their division to lose.

DJ and Kelcey break down every NFC West team game by game — the Rams, the defending champion Seahawks, a 49ers squad dealing with the most catastrophic offseason in recent memory, and the Cardinals, who started the year with Jeremiah Love in a walking boot before the season even opened.

The 49ers had over 25 players injured at the same time, a head coach still recovering from a car accident, an owner making headlines for all the wrong reasons, and a draft that John Lynch admitted was partially influenced by AI. Kelcey's verdict: the AI got out of its sandbox and destroyed the entire offseason. DJ has them at 6-11. Kelcey has them at 7-10. Neither is great news for Brock Purdy.

The Seahawks are the defending champions and still loaded defensively — Witherspoon, a mad-genius head coach, and a secondary that got an interesting addition in Trevon Diggs. But Kenneth Walker is gone to Kansas City, the offensive weapons beyond JSN are thin, and Clint Kubiak left for Las Vegas. Kelcey has them falling all the way to 8-9. DJ gives them a bit more credit at 10-7. Both think they miss the Super Bowl.

Then there are the Cardinals. Two wins. Maybe three. New coaching staff, a LaFleur at the helm, a historic Trey McBride tight end season that almost certainly won't repeat, and Marvin Harrison Jr. trying to shake off a year of drops and drama. DJ actually believes in MHJ's bounce-back. Kelcey is betting the under on McBride touchdowns at -130.

Eight prop bets. Four teams. Both hosts have the Rams at 13-4 and the NFC's No. 1 seed. The only question is whether Aaron Donald makes a cameo before November.

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The Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs last year. It was the worst season of Patrick Mahomes' career and arguably the worst of Travis Kelce's. The receiver room had one player whose knee rehab was interrupted by mandatory jail time and another who hasn't played consistently yet. And DJ and Kelcey are somehow intrigued by them again.

That's the AFC West in 2026. Welcome to the most competitive division in football.

DJ and Kelcey continue their August division series with a full AFC West breakdown — every team picked game by game, eight futures bets powered by Outlier, and two sets of final standings with a genuinely major disagreement about Denver. Kelcey has the Broncos repeating at 14-3 and three AFC West teams making the playoffs. DJ has Denver missing the playoffs at 8-9 and the Chargers winning the division on a tiebreaker. Both can't be right.

The Raiders get the most honest assessment you'll hear anywhere — Kirk Cousins as a regular season mercenary burning through Kohl's Cash, Fernando Mendoza waiting in the wings, Brock Bowers healthy, Ashton Gentry's ankle giving everyone a scare before being downgraded to a sprain. The ideal scenario: they look like the 2021 Lions — great, hungry, inspiring, just not quite winning enough games to ruin their draft position.

The Chiefs are rebuilding in real time. Kenneth Walker was sniped at the goal line in Seattle all year and still got nine touchdowns. That problem no longer exists. Mahomes is cleared. Kelce is still a top-5 tight end. The receiver room is cinema for all the wrong reasons, but Andy Reid has been turning nothing into something for 30 years.

The Chargers are the most interesting team in the division. Mike McDaniel removes every excuse Justin Herbert has had for five years. No more jumbo packages. No more 10 offensive line combinations. This is Herbert's prime opportunity.

Denver comes in with the best offensive line in football, a 1A/1B receiver duo in Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle, and a defense that was 17 yards away from being the top unit in the entire NFL. The only variable is Bo Nix's ankle. That detail is the difference between their two predictions.

Eight bets, four teams, one division that might send three teams to the playoffs.

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For the first time in half a decade, the Bills didn't win the AFC East. The Patriots went 14-3 and made the Super Bowl. Now everyone wants to know if that was a fluke or the beginning of something.

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DJ and Kelcey continue their division preview series with the AFC East — every team broken down game by game, eight futures bets powered by Outlier, and two sets of final standings that land in completely different places. Kelcey has the Patriots repeating at 14-3. DJ has the Bills taking the division back at 12-5 and the Patriots falling to 9-8 on a schedule that gives them absolutely no favors.

The Jets are broken down with the kind of honesty only fans who genuinely feel bad about it can deliver — Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall don't deserve this, Geno Smith has never recaptured magic anywhere, and Aaron Glenn is already on the hot seat after his defense finished the year with the same interception total as your average high school game. The best-case scenario is they win 5 games and don't get the first overall pick again.

The Dolphins are doing it ethically — paying more money to players not on their roster than players who are, no Tua, no McDaniel, no Waddle, no Hill. Malik Willis is the quarterback. Devin Achane is the best player. Three wins is the ceiling. Kelcey has them at one.

The Bills brought in DJ Moore, kept James Cook, promoted Joe Brady, and hired Jim Leonard as defensive coordinator. The offense isn't the problem. Stopping the run is. If they fix that and Josh Allen stops turning the ball over in January, they're a Super Bowl team. Same story, possibly different chapter.

The Patriots get AJ Brown, have Drake Maye in year three, and still have Mike Vrabel running the show. On paper there are almost no holes. The schedule, however, is the complete opposite of last year's cakewalk — they open against Seattle on a Wednesday, then get Houston, Jacksonville, and the Bills twice. DJ thinks the path is too hard. Kelcey thinks the Patriots do this regardless.

Eight bets, four teams, two very different visions of how the AFC East ends.

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Twenty-plus years of heartbreak and DJ is finally picking the Cowboys to win the NFC East. Kelcey is not ruling it out. Something may actually be different this time.

DJ and Kelcey continue their August division preview series with the NFC East — every game picked, every record broken down, and six futures bets backed by Outlier data. DJ has the Cowboys winning the division at 11-6. Kelcey has the Eagles winning it at 11-6 with the Giants sneaking into the playoffs at 10-7. Both can't be right, and the argument is worth hearing.

The Giants come in under new head coach John Harbaugh with Jaxson Dart getting a full offseason, a defense that could be genuinely good, and Malik Nabers as a wild card who either transforms the offense in Week 1 or misses the first month. The problem is Dart keeps visiting the blue tent and there is no sign of that changing.

The Commanders spent real money on defense — Bobby Wagner, Adafe Oweh, Caleb Von Chaison — and got slightly below average for their trouble. Jayden Daniels missed 10 games last year with four different injuries. The entire season hinges on whether he can stay upright, and neither host is confident he will. Stefon Diggs is now in the building, which is either a positive development or a locker room waiting to happen.

The Cowboys went at their defensive problems directly: Rashawn Gary, Caleb Downs in the draft, Quinnen Williams re-signed, and Von Miller added to the edge rush. The offense was top-5 last year with a banged-up CeeDee Lamb and a George Pickens who quietly put up double-digit touchdowns. With both healthy and Dak fully locked in, DJ thinks this is the most complete Cowboys roster in two decades.

Then there are the Eagles — defending back-to-back division champions shooting for three straight — who managed to turn AJ Brown's departure, Jonathan Grenard's PUP placement, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka's retirement, and ongoing Jalen Carter drama into a preseason storyline and still come in as the division favorite.

Six bets. Four teams. Zero agreement on who wins the East.

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Peter Schoenke, CEO of Fantasy Life, joins the High Low Sports Podcast to talk about the past, present and future of the fantasy sports industry. Schoenke co-founded RotoWire, helped pioneer real-time fantasy player news, served as a longtime Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association leader and has been part of the industry’s biggest legal and business conversations for decades.

In this episode, he breaks down how fantasy sports grew from handwritten stats and early internet chaos into one of the biggest parts of the sports fan experience. We discuss the role of the Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association, the early days of RotoWire, fantasy sports legality, daily fantasy sports, sports betting, prediction markets, Matthew Berry and Fantasy Life, guillotine leagues, college football fantasy, fantasy football draft strategy, why kickers are random and why knowing your league rules matters more than most players realize.

Chapters:

00:00 Peter Schoenke on the wild early days of fantasy sports

00:48 Welcome to High Low Sports

01:20 Introducing Peter Schoenke

01:44 What is the FSGA?

03:03 How the fantasy sports industry works together

04:32 Starting in fantasy sports by hand in 1990

04:55 How Roto-News became RotoWire

06:47 When RotoWire started to feel real

08:10 Selling RotoWire and surviving the rollercoaster

09:33 How fantasy sports became mainstream

11:24 Why fantasy football works for casual and hardcore fans

13:26 Fantasy sports legality and consumer protections

16:12 Why fantasy is still growing after sports betting

18:28 How guillotine leagues change fantasy strategy

19:23 Prediction markets and the future of sports gaming

22:14 Why Peter joined Matthew Berry at Fantasy Life

25:36 The fantasy sports community and early industry pioneers

27:56 How many fantasy leagues Peter plays in

30:55 College football fantasy and the Power 4 problem

33:11 Why college football fantasy rewards research

34:21 Peter’s hot take on fantasy team names

36:02 Peter’s fantasy football hot take for this season

37:38 Why Peter says not to draft a kicker

38:44 Why knowing your league rules matters

39:45 Fantasy Life tools and custom league rankings

40:32 Bijan, Gibbs and early-round draft strategy

41:57 College football fantasy draft strategy

44:07 Why new players should try guillotine leagues.

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Short on talent. Top 2 in drama. Welcome back to the NFC South.

DJ and Kelcey continue their August NFL division breakdown series with the NFC South — every team picked game by game, a futures bet for each squad, and two sets of final standings that couldn't disagree more. DJ has the Falcons winning the division at 9-8. Kelcey has the Buccaneers at 11-6. One of them is very right and one of them is going to hear about it all season.

The Saints are everyone's preseason darlings and there's real reason for it — Travis Etienne, Jordan Tyson, a functional offensive line, and Tyler Shuck's legs. The concern is Cam Jordan is gone and that defense doesn't always travel. DJ bets Jordan Tyson over 750 receiving yards. Kelcey is on Tyler Shuck over 350 rushing yards.

The Falcons are the most interesting team in the division on paper. Kyle Pitts' touchdown total has gone up in every single one of his five seasons — literally 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Drake London put up 119 yards per game with Penix and is looking at 1,100+ with consistency. Kevin Stefanski made David Njoku a Pro Bowler. The only question is which left-handed quarterback is out there and for how long.

Then there's Kelcey's hottest take of the episode: Baker Mayfield is a top 10 quarterback. He is better than Brock Purdy. The math is simple, and Kelcey will not be taking questions. The Bucs' receiver room without Mike Evans is arguably better — Egbuka as WR1, Godwin, McMillan. Bucky Irving bounces back. The vibes are weird but the roster is real.

Carolina has a star in Tedarosa McMillan, a real defense, and a wildly explosive but wildly fragile Jonathan Brooks at running back — "a very discount, zero-calorie version of Jahmyr Gibbs." Bryce Young is taking the next step. The problem is a first-place schedule after backing into last year's division title.

Eight bets, four teams, zero consensus on the final standings.

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The AFC South preview is here — and DJ and Kelcey couldn't agree less on how it ends.

DJ has the Houston Texans finishing 13-4 and earning the AFC's number-one seed. Kelcey has them at 9-8, second in the division behind a Jacksonville Jaguars team he's calling the worst division winner in the conference at 10-7. They picked every single regular-season game to get there, and the receipts are in this episode.

The full breakdown: Tennessee is not as bad as people think. Cam Ward has never regressed year-over-year, Brian Daboll unlocks the offense in year two, and Tony Pollard quietly sits on a list of backs with four straight 1,000-yard seasons that barely has five names on it. The Titans aren't a turnaround story — but they're a genuine improvement story.

The Colts are the Colts. Eight-and-two to start last year, seven straight losses to finish. Now they've traded away Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce hasn't practiced coming off surgery, and Daniel Jones is back from an Achilles but may never be the same runner. Tyler Warren is going to carry an enormous passing game load. And Kelcey is swinging on CJ Allen to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +1800 — because the Colts have been drafting linebacker maniacs since Darius Leonard and it keeps working.

Houston has the best defense in football and just added David Montgomery to finally give CJ Stroud a real run game. DJ thinks that combination pushes them to the top of the AFC. Kelcey thinks CJ still sees ghosts after last year's offensive line disaster and the close games will cost them.

Jacksonville ran it back. Trevor Lawrence, top-6 MVP candidate, 31 touchdowns, 9 rushing. Liam Cohen's offense clicks. Travis Hunter is moving mostly to defense. Bhayshul Tuten takes over from Etienne. The Jaguars look like the class of the division on paper — the only question is whether the first-place schedule makes things harder than last year's soft draw.

Two predictions. Four teams. Eight futures bets. No agreement on the final standings.

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College football season is almost here, and DJ and Kelsey are not holding anything back.

This week on the High Low Sports Podcast: the Akron Zips are letting a season ticket holder script the opening drive of their home opener — and DJ has a 16-play, 9-minute clock-killing masterpiece ready to submit. Kelsey is going halfback dive, play-action all-go, and keeping the rest a secret. The dream scenario: fan scores on the first drive, real OC gets shut out for the rest of the game.

Then it's straight into the NCAA Top 25 rankings, broken down in chunks of 10 with zero filter. Notre Dame bailed on their bowl game and somehow got five first-place votes — Kelsey wants a preseason ranking ban and isn't shy about it. Indiana won the national championship undefeated, kept their coach, and is sitting at six while Texas is collecting first-place votes off pure reputation. LSU should be at 10 the moment Brian Kelly is gone. Tennessee has no business being ranked with a true freshman at quarterback in the SEC. Alabama is in a rebuilding year and Kalen DeBoer is not Nick Saban — take the pill. Missouri is starting Brady Cook, who lost his job at Ole Miss. Utah's Devin Dampier might be a Heisman dark horse that nobody's talking about yet.

They close out with a major announcement: Belly Up Sports is partnering with Degen Club — one platform for all your pick'ems, survivor pools, Calcutta auctions, and prediction contests. No more spreadsheets. No more chasing your friend for his buy-in. NFL Predictions Month kicks off next week.

Sharp, unfiltered, and very much not an Alabama fan club.

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