The Special envoy for Ukraine, retired lieutenant General Kellogg has laid out America's shift in foreign policy; it draws inspiration from Prof. Paul Kennedy's book,The rise and fall of Great powers.
Trump unlike his predecessor does not want war with Russia because his administration believe that great powers historically fail when they get entangled in strategic overreach or military overreach. Prof. Kennedy refereed to this as Imperial overreach. I should add just because they cite Prof. Kennedy, it does not mean that the renowned Prof. is the mastermind behind their thoughts, it just means, they are aware of his work and are drawing conclusions from it. As of now, the sum total of the United States’ global interests and global obligations far larger than the country’s power to defend them simultaneously especially if China and Russia consolidate their forces. Israel needs US’s attention and trouble is brewing in Taiwan. Ukraine, under these circumstances will not be on the US defence list.
In addition, The Trump administration’s stance on making a business deal before they deliver or promise any security guarantees, has shocked many people, but a closer reading of US history of invasions and interventions gives one whole picture of how almost every US administration (irrespective of democrats or Republicans) quickly orders an exit strategy with a profitable deal to take away on their drive out when things work against their interests.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine was not all that much about freedom, democracy and sovereignty, but largely about a security conflict involving NATO and snapping up Ukrainian resources. Some of us had our suspicions when the Rand Corporation, an influential think tank closest to the Pentagon, published their ideas through a research paper readily available on their website. It was titled , Extending Russia: Competing from advantageous ground. The report gives solicited advice on how to exploit the vulnerabilities of Russia. The Rand cooperation is funded by the US government and big arms manufacturers too. Again, these details are available on their website in their About Us section. The idea was to stretch Russia thin by exploiting her anxieties, but the think tank did explicitly state that Russia could well escalate matters. Oddly, a lot of how the invasion played out can be matched to the paper published back in 2019. Now the ugly truth is that the greatest experts of the Cold war had repeatedly warned the West against NATO expansion especially to Ukraine. George Kennan, that most astute of Russia observers, described NATO expansion as “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold war era”. William Burns, US ambassador (and CIA director until January 2025 ) advised Washington that Ukrainian inclusion in NATO was “the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite. But
Russia isn’t even a peer competitor when it comes to the US. It’s a distant third if we were to rate it. But Can the EU face Russia without the US? Is Strategic overreach something the EU can afford?
For the text version please visit alivreouvert.substack.com