History of the Future

What if the political turmoil we see today isn't unprecedented, but part of a much longer American pattern?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore six historical crises that echo contemporary debates around corruption, state-federal power, elections, presidential transparency, tariffs, and territorial expansion. From the Crédit Mobilier railroad scandal and the Nullification Crisis to the contested election that ended Reconstruction, Woodrow Wilson's concealed illness, and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, they examine how political incentives and power struggles have repeatedly produced consequences that outlast the crises themselves. 

The episode also explores how territorial expansion intensified America's divisions over slavery and helped set the stage for the Civil War. The result is a historical perspective on why today's crises can feel unprecedented, and what history can teach us about them. 

What You Will Learn:

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

What if the technology making your phone "smart" is actually making you vulnerable to mass surveillance?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine how modern geofence warrants are reviving a centuries-old conflict over government surveillance. They trace the origins of the Fourth Amendment’s protection against “general warrants” to colonial America and the landmark 1761 case involving John Wilkes, showing how fears of broad, suspicionless searches echo in today’s digital world. 

The hosts explain how geofence warrants allow police to obtain location data from every device within a defined area, potentially sweeping innocent people into criminal investigations before identifying any actual suspect. They also explore why smartphones make opting out of location tracking increasingly difficult, while challenging the outdated third-party doctrine and debating the “bailment theory” of digital privacy. 

What You Will Learn:

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

AI, economics, economic history, the Industrial Revolution, automation, jobs, innovation, and the future of work are at the heart of the inaugural episode of History of the Future. Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore what history can teach us about AI, looking at past technological revolutions—from the Industrial Revolution to the internet—to explain why today's AI boom may be more familiar than it seems.

They examine how technological change reshapes labor markets, why fears of job displacement often overlook the creation of new opportunities, and what the "Engels' pause" reveals about short-term disruption and long-term prosperity.

Jonathan and Caleb also discuss AI data centers, infrastructure, AI regulation, productivity, lower-skilled workers, and the economic forces shaping the future of artificial intelligence. It's a timely, historically grounded look at one of the most important technological and economic transformations of our time.

What You Will Learn:

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

Why do the same ideas keep coming back? 

History of the Future connects history, economics, and today's biggest headlines to better understand what's next.

Coming Wednesday!