Avecho Biotechnology (ASX: AVE) is heading into one of the nearest-term binary catalysts on the ASX: the interim analysis of its pivotal Phase 3 insomnia trial, due late June. In this Sharewise webinar, Wei Sim sits down with Avecho CEO Dr Paul Gavin to unpack the science, the strategy and the setup behind a ~$45M-market-cap biotech with a global pharma partner already locked in.

Avecho has spent six years developing a proprietary cannabidiol (CBD) capsule enhanced with its own TPM drug-delivery technology, which increases CBD absorption roughly four-fold versus the only existing pharmaceutical CBD product, Epidiolex. The target indication — insomnia — affects an estimated 10–30% of the population, and Avecho is aiming to become the world's first pharmaceutical CBD product registered with the TGA, and uniquely, available over-the-counter.

Dr Gavin explains the trial design that he argues separates Avecho from the wave of medicinal-cannabis trials that failed: dual primary endpoints (Insomnia Severity Index and sleep efficiency, only one needs to succeed), an adaptive interim analysis, and a two-week placebo run-in to strip out high placebo responders. He also walks through the Sandoz licensing deal (US$3M upfront, up to US$16M in milestones, 14–19% tiered royalties), the regulatory "carrot" the TGA has dangled for OTC registration, the patent moat around the TPM formulation out to 2043, and a potentially accelerated US FDA pathway under recent single-Phase-3 rule changes.

The conversation closes on commercialisation timelines, label-expansion potential into anxiety, depression, pain, IBS/IBD, osteoarthritis and menopause, capital strategy if a second cohort is required, and the long-term M&A endgame.

Whether the trial succeeds is not guaranteed — and Dr Gavin says so plainly. This is a clear-eyed look at the bull case, the risks, and why a Phase 3 readout is exactly the moment biotech investors pay attention.

🎙️ Guest: Dr Paul Gavin, CEO, Avecho Biotechnology (ASX: AVE)

🎙️ Host: Wei Sim, Sharewise

⚠️ This podcast is general information only and is not financial or investment advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Pre-revenue, single-catalyst biotech stocks carry significant risk, including total loss of capital. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser. The host and/or affiliated entities may receive fees in connection with companies discussed — see full disclosures.

Homodeus Research speaks with Paul Ferguson, CEO of Metals Australia (ASX: MLS), about the company's flagship Lac Carheil Graphite Project in Quebec, Canada — positioned by management as the country's next fully integrated, mine-to-anode graphite play.

Paul walks through both halves of the project: the upstream mine and flake graphite concentrate plant near Fermont, and the downstream Battery Anode Material (BAM) refinery planned for Baie-Comeau, the subject of a Preliminary Economic Assessment released on 28 April 2026. He frames the resource scale, the grade advantage over Canadian peer Nouveau Monde Graphite, the supportive Quebec and federal funding backdrop, and the structural demand case for natural graphite in lithium-ion battery anodes.

The conversation also covers Nouveau Monde's recent Final Investment Decision as a read-through for the sector, the natural-vs-synthetic graphite debate, China's dominance of the anode supply chain, the path from PFS to FID, and the outlook for off-take agreements.

What's covered:

Paul's background — 35+ years across mining, oil & gas and industrial minerals, including cold-climate processing in Canada

Metals Australia's portfolio across Quebec, Western Australia and the Northern Territory

The Lac Carheil resource: ~50Mt at ~10.2% Cg for ~5.1Mt contained graphite — and why that's drawn from just ~2.3km of a ~36km mapped strike

Upstream plan: an ~860,000 tpa concentrate plant producing ~100,000 tpa of flake graphite concentrate

Downstream BAM refinery: ~51,000 tpa of product, ~25-year life, and PEA economics of ~US$1.39bn after-tax NPV-8 (~A$1.98bn)

~US$884m (C$1.26bn) refinery capex and the ~US$260m clean-tech investment tax credit rebate

How MLS compares with Nouveau Monde on grade, plant size, capex and downstream NPV

Canada's critical minerals plan: five graphite mines and five CSPG refineries targeted by 2040

Government support: a C$600k Quebec grant, mineral exploration tax credits, and clean manufacturing ITCs

Conservative price assumptions vs Canada's announced floor price

Natural vs synthetic graphite, the China supply-chain question, and the tariff/policy backdrop

Cash position (~A$4.4m at end-March), the PFS due mid-2026, and the off-take pathway

Guest: Paul Ferguson, CEO, Metals Australia Ltd (ASX: MLS)

Host: Wei, Homodeus Research

🔗 Company: metalsaustralia.com.au

🔗 Research: homodeus.one

Guest bio

Paul Ferguson has been CEO of Metals Australia since January 2024. A mining engineer with a postgraduate finance background, he has more than 35 years of experience across the mining and oil & gas sectors, much of it offshore in Asia and North America — including over a decade in Canada. His experience spans heavy mining, mineral processing and refining in cold-climate environments (notably a ~US$30bn oil sands project with ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil) and the industrial minerals sector, giving him direct insight into the graphite industry.

Chapters / timestamps

Approximate, based on the recording. Adjust to the final published cut.

00:00 — Introduction & Paul Ferguson's background

02:00 — Metals Australia overview & project portfolio

06:00 — The Quebec graphite project: an integrated mine-to-anode solution

08:30 — Downstream BAM refinery at Baie-Comeau (PEA)

10:00 — Upstream mine, the resource & mineral endowment

12:30 — Resource scale: ~5.1Mt and decades of supply potential

14:00 — Demand outlook & Canada's critical minerals plan

15:00 — The flake graphite concentrate plant & PFS

17:00 — Conservative pricing vs Canada's announced floor price

18:00 — Downstream refinery economics (~A$2bn NPV)

20:00 — Benchmarking MLS against Nouveau Monde Graphite

26:00 — Next steps: PFS, feasibility study & environmental work

29:00 — Q&A: Canadian & Quebec government support

33:00 — PFS timeline and what's left to do

34:00 — Nouveau Monde's FID — the read-through for MLS

36:00 — Natural vs synthetic graphite

38:00 — Policy, tariffs & the macro backdrop

40:00 — Countering China's supply-chain dominance

42:00 — Q&A: supply/demand and the PFS → FEED → FID timeline

46:00 — Cash balance & quarterly spend

48:00 — The path to first off-take agreements

50:30 — Closing remarks

Tags / keywords (SEO)

Metals Australia · ASX MLS · Lac Carheil · graphite · flake graphite · battery anode material · BAM · lithium-ion battery · critical minerals · Quebec mining · Nouveau Monde · Paul Ferguson · EV supply chain · natural graphite · Baie-Comeau · Fermont · critical minerals Canada · graphite refinery · ASX small caps · Homodeus Research

📌 KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Critical minerals explorer-developer, dual-listed ASX:RMX and OTCQB:RMXFF, capped under A$20M with over A$2M cash at end of quarter, focused on antimony-gold across Australia and the US

• Four-pillar investment framework — commodity, projects, jurisdictions, timing — and Nic's case for why all four currently align for RMX

• Antimony supply sits 85–90% with China, Russia and Tajikistan; classified by the US as a national security issue; end uses (armour-piercing rounds, semiconductors, night vision, infrared sensors, solar PV, fire retardants) are difficult to substitute

• China's late-2024 export bans drove antimony ~6x to ~A$95,000/tonne. Controls have since been relaxed; per Nic's understanding, they will be reinstated in September

• Armidale Antimony-Gold (NSW) — flagship on the Southern New England Orogen, the same province as Larvotto Resources' (ASX:LRV) Hillgrove, Australia's largest antimony deposit. Nearly 2,000 surface samples completed across 2025–26; results up to ~40% stibnite with 1g/t associated gold; multi-kilometre soil anomaly coincident in Au-As-Sb, five priority targets defined for the maiden drill program

• Utah Antimony Project — acquired for proximity to American Tungsten & Antimony's (ASX:AT4) Antimony Canyon Project; claims overlie the same Flagstaff stratigraphy that hosts AT4's resource. Geophysics planned to map controlling N-S faults

• Thompson Falls (the project Nic said he's "most excited about") — 4-5km from United States Antimony Corp's Stibnite Hill Mine, recently re-entered production, and proximal to UAMY's antimony oxide smelter. Initial fieldwork up to 37% Sb with 0.5g/t Au; three historical underground adits and one open pit; within the Coeur d'Alene district (~20% of US silver production / ~1.2 billion ounces historically)

• Catalyst calendar — maiden Armidale drill program (~2,000m / ~20 holes, deepest 300m, on-site XRF) targeting end of this half / early next pending APO. IP survey trial at Oakey Creek South. US program ~6 months behind on winter; Thompson Falls field team mobilising in the coming weeks, then Utah drone + chargeability survey, then drill

• Dr Max Baker (Newmont-era exploration manager, multi-million-oz discoveries) joined the advisory board