Horizon Engage

Brazil’s first round did not go to script. Flavio Bolsonaro beat the polls again, his Liberal Party took congressional seats from the centre parties, and Lula admits he took victory for granted. With 33 million voters still uncommitted and student mobilisation growing in the streets, the runoff is still open for 25th October.

In this episode of the Horizon Engage podcast, Sasha Zaslavsky talks with Senior Advisors Mark Langevin in Washington, DC and Luiza Braga in Rio de Janeiro, about:

• Why Flavio outperformed the polls and what a strong congressional coalition could mean for governing
• Likely changes at Petrobras and IBAMA, and a faster push on gas liberalisation
• When the 12% crude export tax might actually go, and the political risk of removing fuel subsidies
• How Brazil may handle the US and China, from critical minerals to Chinese FDI
• The wildcards: the electoral courts, low-income women as swing voters, and the chance of lasting street opposition into 2027

What can energy investors really expect from Venezuela's political transition and the newly elected government in Colombia?

In this episode of the Horizon Engage Podcast, Sasha Zaslavsky is joined by Ambassador Bill Brownfield, one of the world's experts on Venezuela and Latin America. A former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, Colombia and Chile, and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, Bill draws on decades of diplomatic experience to share his outlook. His experience includes in person dealings with Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro and Delcy Rodríguez.

Together they examine how Venezuela's leadership has changed, the impact of the recent earthquake on political stability and economic recovery, and what the country's transition means for investors. The discussion also explores the future of Russian and Chinese influence in Venezuela, the long-running Guyana border dispute, and Colombia's new political direction following its recent election.

Key Highlights are:

• How Venezuela's leadership has evolved from Chávez to Maduro to Delcy Rodríguez.
• Why the recent earthquake could reshape the country's political and economic trajectory.
• Whether economic recovery is being prioritised over democratic transition.
• What Western investors need to know about existing Russian and Chinese interests in Venezuela.
• Why historical contracts with PDVSA remain an important investment consideration.
• How the Guyana-Esequibo dispute could affect regional stability.
• What Colombia's new government means for investors and the future of the left.
• The key geopolitical risks businesses should monitor across Latin America over the next 6–12 months.

If you're assessing energy investment opportunities in Latin America, this episode provides 'eyes open' insights into the political dynamics shaping business risk, regulatory stability and long-term investment decisions.

US-Iran Outlook: The 60-Day Clock – What Energy Investors Need to Know

Following the recent conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, what comes next for sanctions, regional security and energy investment?

In this episode of the Horizon Engage podcast, Sasha Zaslavsky is joined by sanctions expert, Richard Nephew and Middle East specialist, Michael Knights to examine what the next 60 days could mean for investors operating across the Gulf and beyond.

The discussion moves beyond the headlines to explore the strategic outlook for sanctions, security and investment, including:

• Will US sanctions on Iran fundamentally change after the conflict?
• What does the new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) really mean for energy companies?
• How are Gulf states reassessing security risks following direct attacks on energy infrastructure?
• Why are Gulf national oil companies accelerating overseas investment and diversification?
• Is there any realistic prospect of Western companies returning to Iran?
• What role could Gulf states play in Iran's future reconstruction?
• What political and security indicators should investors monitor over the next 60 days?

From sanctions enforcement and Gulf security to geopolitical risk premiums and investment strategy, this episode provides practical insight into the decisions shaping the next phase of Middle East energy markets.

As geopolitical tensions reshape global energy markets, Latin America is increasingly attracting investor attention. But is the region finally becoming a more reliable destination for energy investment, and what role is the Trump administration playing in that shift?

In this episode, Sasha Zaslavsky is joined by Latin America experts Marcelo Garcia and Alexia Bautista to explore why investors are reassessing the region's risk profile, how governments across the political spectrum are becoming more pragmatic towards foreign capital, and whether growing US influence is creating opportunities or new sources of instability.

The discussion examines the impact of security concerns, US leverage, upcoming elections in Colombia, Brazil and Venezuela, and why investors should look beyond traditional left-versus-right political labels when assessing risk. The experts also share their outlook on where the region's greatest opportunities and challenges lie for energy companies and investors.

Key topics:

• Why Latin America is becoming harder for energy investors to ignore
• How US policy under Trump is reshaping the investment landscape
• The growing importance of security, governance and institutional stability
• Critical elections to watch in Colombia, Brazil and Venezuela
• What energy investors should prioritise when evaluating opportunities across the region

In this episode of the Horizon Engage podcast, Sasha Zaslavsky is joined by Africa experts Clementine Wallop and Andrew Farrand to explore how geopolitical shifts are reshaping investment across Africa’s energy sector. Against the backdrop of the Iran conflict and disruption in the Gulf, the discussion focuses on the push from investors to speed up new energy opportunities in the region, despite the risks still remaining.

The conversation focuses on three critical aspects for investment in Africa: Borders, Banks and Blocks. From evolving border disputes and cross-border cooperation in North and Sub-Saharan Africa, to tightening banking regulations and the growing complexity of foreign exchange controls, the episode unpacks the realities facing investors and energy companies. The team also explores how governments in Libya, Algeria, Nigeria and Angola are rethinking bid rounds, direct negotiations and regulatory reform to attract capital in a more competitive global energy market.

Drawing on Horizon Engage’s human intelligence networks and in-country expertise, the episode highlights why understanding political relationships, regulatory dynamics and local stakeholders remains essential for navigating geopolitical risk in Africa.

This episode delves into the art and science of predictions, exploring the mechanics of prediction, measuring military capability, the use of indicators and warnings board, expert bias in predictions, and the systematic predictive work. The conversation provides insights into the methods and tools used in the prediction of geopolitical events and their impact on investors.

Takeaways

• Art and science of predictions
• Mechanics of prediction
• Horizon Engage Advance for predictions and scenarios

The conversation covers John Lowe's career journey, board roles, and insights into managing political risk and how Horizon Engage has helped. It delves into traditional approaches to political risk, navigating political risk in Venezuela, and the impact of political events on investment decisions. The discussion also explores scenario planning, fiduciary responsibility, and the interpretation of analytical pieces. Additionally, it addresses protective measures for business operations and the importance of building relationships and aligning interests.

Takeaways

• Traditional approaches to political risk management
• The importance of building relationships and aligning interests in business operations

Chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Background
• 07:06 Navigating Political Risk in Venezuela
• 12:22 Fiduciary Responsibility and Risk Management
• 19:23 Protective Measures for Business Operations