Horizons

As Covid-19 restrictions lifted around the world and countries stopped reporting on case numbers, the events of 2020 and 2021 faded further into our collective memory. Against the threat of looming recession and a war in Europe, it was easy to forget the turmoil brought on by the pandemic. Then, in January 2023, China announced it was reopening its borders and abandoning quarantine measures. After 3 years, in which the entire population was locked down without regard for cost or consequence, China was open for business. It's ‘zero-Covid’ policy hit its economy hard. GDP in 2022 slumped to its lowest growth rate in almost half a century. Energy demand was affected as a result: LNG imports slumped 20% year-on-year, as did oil consumption. 

At the opening of the National People’s Congress in early March, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth target of around 5% for 2023. Will China’s reconnection with the global economy provide enough of a boost in trade and investment? Under Wood Mackenzie’s base-case scenario, we now expect China’s economy to grow 5.5% this year. 

On the podcast today, we look at the possible pathways to growth for the Chinese economy, and the impact of its reopening on energy supply, markets and prices. 

Joining Liz Dennett are Alan Gelder and Massimo Di-Odoardo. Alan is Vice President of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie. Massimo is Vice President of Global Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie. 

Find out more and read the full Horizons report here

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The world is not going to run out of oil and gas any time soon. Total oil and gas resources are more than likely to double demand by 2050, with gas reserves sitting at 1.5 trillion oil-barrel equivalents. It’s the quality of this supply that’s the issue. Advantaged resources (price resilient and low emissions) could only be enough to supply half the demand by 2050. So what can companies do to mitigate this shortage? Diversification will be important, and investment in renewal, decarbonisation and low-carbon alternatives even more so. So what needs to be done? Upstream companies must act now, but where do they start? On the podcast today, we look at the options. Exploration of new fields, decarbonising existing assets and investment in low-carbon alternatives are all on the table. 

Liz Dennett is joined by Valentina Kretzschmar, Head of Energy Transition at Capricorn Energy. Valentina leads Capricorn’s net zero strategy. On the show she outlines the distinctions between emissions goals and forecasts, and explores the ever-changing role of oil and gas in the energy transition. Also joining Liz is Andrew Latham, Vice-President of Energy Research at Wood Mackenzie. Andrew provides upstream and exploration analysis, examining the trends that are shaping the industry and outlining the steps companies will likely take in the coming decades, as energy diversification evolves.

Read the February Horizons report at woodmac.com/horizons, and subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts.

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Without doubt, 2022 will be remembered as one of the most pivotal years in the history of power generation. It was the year that highlighted the folly of concentrated supply.

In Europe, the war in Ukraine raised energy security issues caused by heavy reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, China’s dominance of the solar and energy storage supply chains posed national security questions for energy policy planners.

These concerns have spurred European and North American policy makers to reshape renewable energy industry supply chains to reduce dependence on imported equipment.

On the 16 August 2022, the United States took its first and most significant step to reshape the renewables supply chain, with President Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act. Two key provisions are likely to be game- changing for equipment manufacturers. First, the Act provides a tax credit, known as the advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC), for US-made renewable equipment.

Second, it incentivises developers of US renewable projects to purchase domestically produced equipment by providing an additional tax credit if they meet domestic content requirement (DCR) thresholds.

On the podcast, host Liz Dennett is joined by Horizons report author Daniel Liu, Head of Asset Commercial Performance at Wood Mackenzie, and Melissa Lott, Director of Research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Together they explore the implications for manufacturers, developers and investors off the back of the historic climate bill.

Read the full report here: https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/

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On this special episode of the Horizons podcast our host Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Carolyn Comer, President at Shell Energy Americas and Simon Flowers, Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. ​

How do we shape the future of energy? We know where we need to be - at net zero - but there isn’t just one path to get there. Decarbonising the global economy will require a multi-pronged approach. We’ll need to change the way we power our planet, by revolutionising the grid and investing in the right places. ​

On this episode we discuss how Shell Energy are setting their sights on a zero emission future. Their plans for the coming decades involve investment in innovative technologies, development of infrastructure and optimising the next generation of energy grids.

The Horizons podcast is brought to you by Shell Energy, who are helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com/business

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After a year of harrowing news from across the world, a war in Ukraine and an energy crisis driving a global recession, the final Horizons of the year will outline 5 causes for optimism in the world of energy. Developments in policy and investment, a year after COP26, are laying the foundation for decades of sustainable growth in energy and natural resources.

In the final Horizons podcast of 2022, our host Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Ed Crooks, Vice-Chair, Americas and host of the Energy Gang podcast and Kavita Jadhav, Research Director, Corporate Research. 

As the year comes to an end, we discuss five developments that suggest that, despite the setbacks of the past year, the world is laying the foundations for a decade or more of sustained opportunity that will deliver better outcomes for the reliability, affordability and sustainability of our energy and natural resources:

1.   Global recognition of the need for energy stability

2.   US LNG

3.   Oil prices and the future of refining

4.   Fossil fuel investment

5.   Decarbonising electricity

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Industrial ammonia is a key part of modern life. As a basis of nitrogen fertilisers, as fibres for our clothes, as the cleaning products we use and to refrigerate our food and cool our homes, ammonia’s impact goes beyond just food production. As we race to decarbonise, the energy-intensive means of ammonia production need to be addressed. Low-carbon ammonia has a place in the energy transition, but without guaranteed demand the industry will be reluctant to commit. Policymakers have the power to build the low-carbon ammonia market, a necessary step to ensure existing producers evolve, or else face the consequences as the world reaches out for net zero.

On the podcast this month, Liz is joined by Wood Mackenzie's Mariana Moreria, Principal Research Analyst, who explains the types of ammonia, where it's used and how it's currently produced. Also joining is Magnus Ankarstrand, President of Clean Ammonia at Yara, who explores ammonia as an energy source, its implications for decarbonising the shipping industry, and the policies and industry practices that will use ammonia to further the energy transition.

To find out more, please visit woodmac.com/horizons.

This program is brought to you by Shell Energy, who is helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com slash business

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As we move towards net zero, we’ll see a huge increase in EV and renewable energy production. Metals will be a linchpin of a zero-carbon economy.

Copper – in the form of wire, cable and foil – will bind and connect the batteries, motors and electrical networks that we’ll need for vehicles, solar panels and storage. However, the pull on the world’s resources to achieve this structural change will be transformational, dwarfing the demand increases we have seen over the past 30 years.

If the world is to successfully decarbonise by mid-century and achieve net zero emissions, limiting the rise in temperature to 1.5 C, the likelihood of delivering enough copper to meet demand is low. Low-carbon copper demand over the next 20 years would be equivalent to 60% of the current market size.

On the podcast, Liz is joined by Bernard Respaut, Chief Executive of the European Copper Institute, and Nick Pickens, Research Director at Wood Mackenzie, to analyse how governments, manufacturers and consumers will adapt to drive the energy transition by supplying the raw materials.

To find out more, please visit woodmac.com/horizons.

This program is brought to you by Shell Energy, who is helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com slash business

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From iron ore to steel manufacturing, the industry is highly carbon intensive.

Wood Mac estimates that meeting global steel demand will require 2.2 billion tonnes of production by 2050. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will be a huge challenge. To achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, the decarbonisation of the iron and steel sectors will require approx. $1.4 trillion of investment.

From China to Europe, more aggressive carbon taxing could be needed. With 60% of steel production coming from China, Beijing must implement carbon pricing and taxation to address the high carbon footprint.

To achieve net zero by 2050, three quarters of steel production will have to use low-carbon technologies. Decarbonising steel production will require massive change at each stage of the supply chain. Renewable power, hydrogen and CCUS will benefit from the steel industry’s move towards net zero. 

On the podcast: Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Baris Cifti, Director at World Steel, and Malan Wu, Head of Steel & Raw Material Markets at Wood Mackenzie, to discuss the state of the market, the risks and opportunities for industry in achieving net zero, and how companies, governments, policy-makers and citizens can achieve that goal.

This program is brought to you by Shell Energy, who is helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com slash business

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Liquid biofuels should play a key role in the energy transition. Bio-based sustainable diesel and aviation fuels could emit 80% less carbon than cruide-oil based products. But how do we make it happen?

Food-based feedstocks are risky because of the need to minimise the risk of food shortages, but there are alternatives: non-food feedstocks and new technologies could produce enough biofuel to power a quarter of all liquid fuel demand by 2050.

Waste, agricultural residue and recycling waste plastics could be game-changers and drive biofuel adoption.

As ever, policy making must lead the charge in change. It will be in the national interest; biofuels can help achieve net-zero targets and boost energy security. Meanwhile, local governments could convert fossil-fuel based refineries into sustainable businesses that underpin local employment. 

On the podcast, Liz is joined by Alan Gelder from Wood Mackenzie. Alan is Vice-President Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets. Alan is responsible for formulating Wood Mackenzie’s research outlook and integrated cross-sector perspectives on the global downstream sector.

Also on the show, we're delighted to welcome John Cooper, Director-General of Fuels Europe and Concawe. Fuels Europe represents the interests of 40 companies operating refineries in Europe, and liaises with EU institutions to promote economically and environmentally sustainable refining.

Read the Horizons report at www.woodmac.com/horizons

Find out more at www.fuelseurope.eu and www.concawe.eu/low-carbon-pathways

You can also visit www.cleanfuelsforall.eu. This is the policy work done by FuelsEurope to support the fuels industry, in the way that they are investing and developing the low carbon pathways described in the Concawe work.

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Over 90% of current oil and gas production comes from around 40 traditional ‘super basins.’

Across the preceding decades, production came from these traditional super basins – giant fields and established infrastructure which guaranteed the lowest costs for supply.

Now the world’s demand for lower emissions is forcing change on this legacy industry. Some basins are fit for the future and some are not. Low cost and low carbon resources must become the future of oil and gas. Some traditional super basins will evolve into what we’ll call the Energy Super Basins of the future, and some will be left behind.

For the upstream industry to become more sustainable, it must focus on resources co-located with both plentiful clean electricity and CCS potential. These are the Energy Super Basins of the future. The remaining traditional basins are disadvantaged and face being left behind.

On the podcast: host Liz Dennett is joined by Andrew Latham, Vice President of Energy Research, to explore how traditional super basins can and must transition to new ‘energy super basins’; a mix of plentiful renewable electricity, established oil and gas resources and Hub-scale CCS.

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