The Strait of Hormuz is actually closed right now—not threatened, closed—and we're four weeks into an Iran conflict that's sent oil from sixty to a hundred dollars while Larry Fink warns anything above one-fifty triggers a steep global recession. The Fed chair just admitted he has no idea what happens next, refineries across the Gulf are damaged, and even if shooting stopped tomorrow it would take two to three months to fix the global energy system. Twenty percent of the world's oil flows through that strait and right now tanker captains won't sail through it, which means we're one bad month away from the kind of economic crisis that makes the 1970s look manageable.