Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that tech-focussed, early-stage venture capital company IP Group is worth taking a look at. With a market cap of £460m, some of the businesses it invested in are now quoted and, while the interim results reflected a difficult period, things are now improving. With some facinating things in the portfolio, the long-duration investor IP is at a 56% discount to net asset value.

Discoverie creates and sources electronic designs and components and has just moved into security. It's an attractive long-term business with high returns yet is at a 27% discount to its peers. More info is on the Edison website (https://www.edisongroup.com/).

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In the wake of the AngloGold Ashanti bid for Centamin at 1.7x price/book value, Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why so many gold miners are being bid for. Russ points out that gold mining shares are at an all-time low compared to the gold price. And gold itself is no more expensive relative to equities than it was when Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. Combined with the fact that utiities are the top US performing sector, perhaps it indicates that, after 16 years of an extreme monetary exeriment, investors are expecting something nasty to crawl out of the woodwork.

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Neil Shah of Edison Group takes a look at two housing-related stocks. Rightmove has surged on talk of a bid. It's a jewel of a stock with something like 80% of the online estate agency market. This shows yet again how overseas investors consider the UK market undervalued. Neil believes Rightmove's model has amazing potential for AI.

He also discusses Barratt Developments, which has just produced a tough set of full year results with profits down 75%. However, the mood music for the future is much more positive and there's a bit of a turnaround. While there's uncertainty over what the Budget will bring, Labour's desire to ramp up housebuilding could see them well placed.

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So far this year there have been 108 interest rate cuts worldwide. Russ Mould of A J Bell has crunched the numbers for 13 interest rate cycles and found that the All-Share Index averages a gain of 16.5% after 2 years from falling rates. However, with investors often anticipating cuts, markets are far more volatile for the first 3-6 months. Russ also considers whether very low rates are a good thing, pointing out that a quest for stability by central banks can ultimately lead to greater instability.

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Neil Shah of Edison group looks at a couple of companies which will benefit from the cycle turning in response to declining interest rates. Both are related to the housing market. Estate agents Foxtons have a reasonably-new management team and their interim results show encouraging progress and seem reasonably valued. So too is Topps Tiles, which Neil has discussed on Share Radio before. They are expanding their commercial and online business and doing all the right things. There are notes on both companies on the Edison website: https://www.edisongroup.com.

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Andrew Keen, head of resources at Edison Group, discusses the global diversified miners. Although known for volatility and economic exposure, they are, he says, effectively commodity portfolio managers, a proxy for commodity baskets. While it is difficult for most private clients to research individual commodities and mining stocks, it is not hard to understand the large companies. However, when considering the majors, he suggests that investors should do their own ESG assessment.

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Following the Bank of England's interest rate cut Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the positives and negatives of lower rates. He also talks about the strong flow of share buybacks in the UK, with almost £50bn announced so far this year. He explains why they aren't always a good idea and should be viewed on a case-by-case basis. Although private investors don't benefit directly, their equity stake in the company grows. With a total cash yield on the FTSE100 of 6.3% (even more with FTSE250), he feels the UK market is looking ever more attractive.

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Russell Pointon of Edison Group summarises the company's quarterly consumer report, which finds signs of better momentum in profit reports and, despite a tough macro background, sees consumer confidence increasing. Among companies that are lowly valued relative to their peers, Russell highlights Card Factory. Under relatively new management, it is extending its range beyond greetings cards into gifts and party goods and also moving into suitable overseas markets. Despite good growth prospects, its multiple is still in the high single digits and it has returned to paying dividends.

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Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, looks at the outlook for global stocks, where it's been the AI theme that has driven markets, led by the six mega caps. But, unlike the dotcom bubble, there are real earnings here as these companies are generating big profits so the high ratings can be justified. We now need to see how AI will be utilised by businesses.

He also explains why sterling could be heading for a revival under Labour, helped by an improved relationship with the EU which, with the Ukraine situation, needs UK military intelligence and equipment. If the pound improves for the right reasons, it could drive up the currently low valuation of the UK stock market.

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Dan Ridsdale, head of technology at Edison Group, looks at the state of play with AI, a structural growth trend, where only the companies on the hardware side stand at a premium. In looking at where the revenue from AI will come, investors need to consider what sort of companies will benefit from its use and which have the best relationships with the AI providers. He also discusses geospatial and spatial technology, an area in which the UK excels. As people are not paying this area of growth enough attention, shares in companies such as 1Spatial are not standing at a premium.

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