Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose why, despite the general air of doom and gloom in the UK, the FTSE 100 index has been hitting record highs recently. She discusses recent results from Unilever, Shell & BP and points out the research suggesting that the UK might just manage to avoid a recession this year.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the MPC's decision to increase rates to 4%, the highest since 2008. Is it doing the right thing? He has crunched the numbers to reveal that the All Share has risen 11.5% during Sunak's 100 days as PM, second only to the rise when Edward Heath entered Number Ten (15.4%) and slightly ahead of Tony Blair (10.1%).

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Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor updates Simon Rose on the latest news from the tech sector. Tesla's shares jumped on strong earnings, Microsoft had mixed results and Netflix performed better than expected. She discusses the figures and explains that, although 2022's woes for tech shares may have been overdone, investors in the sector in 2023 are still likely to be in for a bumpy ride.

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Simon Rose takes a well-earned break this week, so we bring you his interview with Lord Lee, author of 'How to Make a Million Slowly', as recorded nearly six years ago. At that time, 1 February 2017, it had been an intriguing start to the year for investors with sterling hitting new lows, driving the stockmarket to a record high. Lord Lee cautioned that forecasting the future direction of markets is a tricky business but for investors who maintain a long term view, the importance of growing dividends and hard assets continues to stand out.

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Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor discusses how the festive season went for retailers with Simon Rose. Despite the gloomy picture of consumers reigning in spending, the picture emerging from the high street over the most important period of the year is much more positive, with the likes of Next, Sainsbury's, Marks and particularly JD Sports, doing well. What happens in the next few weeks on the interest rate and inflation front, however, will prove very important for the sector.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of the 5 key trends he thinks investors should keep an eye on in 2023. The inverted yield curve in the US could indicate a recession. 2-year government bonds often lead monetary policy; will central banks stay tough? Commodity prices could have further to go if inflation is not conquered. And the semiconductor and transport sectors both serve as excellent leading indicators of economic activity.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell takes Simon Rose through the key themes affecting investors in 2022. Oil, gas and inflation is the first though some forget the oil price has been flat. Interest rates finally moved higher. With the fed so hawkish, the dollar was incredibly strong, at least until the end of the year. It was a year in which cryptocurrencies crumbled and in which the seemingly unstoppable tech sector went into reverse gear.

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Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor, despite being in a broken-down car in freezing weather, talked to Simon Rose about the latest interest-rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB. With growth weakening, all three tilted away from a more hawkish position. In the UK, the pound and banks were lower ahead of the MPC's announcement while housebuilders were stronger because interest rate rises might not be as great as they might have been.

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With the World Cup in full flow and Manchester United up for sale, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the economics of football clubs. Although Man United was worth $78m when it floated in 1991 and is, in theory, set to sell for upwards of $4bn, for investors of late it, and every other club, has proved a poor investment. Russ explains how modern football financing works, pointing out that, in good times, all the money seems to go to the talent.

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Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the reasons behind the recent better performance for markets around the world and the recent losses for the dollar. Although the outlook for the UK economy looks fairly bleak at present, it feels – as far as markets are concerned – as if the Santa rally has come early this year.

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