Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss the move by investors out of the US and into the UK and other European markets, as Trump's tariffs produce a downturn for the American economy and equities. The UK market is far cheaper, has less downside, and it doesn't take much money moving from the big seven US megacaps to stimulate change in European markets. Finlay also discusses BAE Systems which is up 25% in the past twelve months. As a beneficiary of increased defence spending and with an order backlog of £78bn, it has strong growth potential, especially in maritime and armoured vehicles.

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Everyone is asking what American tariffs mean for the UK, says Russ Mould of A J Bell. The UK isn't currently in the firing line, except for steel, but this may change next month because of VAT. 13% of global trade involves the US. For the UK, it totals £280bn, much less than with the EU. Trying to second guess what will happen is a fool's errand. Investors should go back to fundamentals. So far UK and European equities are not as volatile as in the US, partly because our markets are cheaper. American contacts claim that, unlike last time, Trump is less interested in the stock market than in the bond market, attempting to tackle America's bloated debt while keeping the treasury rate under control. Trump can't run for another term, but he might be concerned about his legacy.

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Chloe Won Yung Shin and Neil Shah of Edison Group highlight Accsys Technologies after their recent investor day. The company uses its patented process to turn fast-growing sustainable softwoods into tough, long-lasting wood. It has overcome past cost overruns and changed management. Now underpromising and over-delivering, it has huge potential. In its preliminary results, Greggs revealed that it is having a tough time in the difficult consumer environment but it is expanding its evening trade and digital offering and performing well. The recent sharp fall in the share price means that it looks attractive on a historical basis.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell says that while the UK economy may look gloomy, it is not the stock market. With earnings season under way, 82 companies are doing better than expected, with 72 doing worse, so things look moderately positive. Remember of course, that the majority of FTSE company profits are earned overseas. With buybacks significantly ahead of last year, the cash yield is 4.5-5%. The UK is cheap compared to the US, on 28 times forward earnings. But they are more exposed to technology and, let's face it, the Americans are more ruthless and work harder. Russ also gives his views on whether the Government should be trying to get more people to invest.

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Russell Pointon of Edison Group discusses their latest ConsumerWatch report. Despite weak consumer confidence and low economic growth, the sector did well at the end of 2024. Looking ahead, they expect progress from every sub-sector. Those likely to prove consistently strong are hotels, restaurants and leisure with 27 companies highlighted, among them Topps Tiles, Deliveroo, M&S, Next and Hollywood Bowl. The report is on the Edison website. Russell also discussed BAT, which has just had full-year results. They anticipate getting half their revenue in future from smokeless products. It's a company that is innovating and, as a result, better growth and profits are coming through.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at activist investors in the wake of Elliott's interest in BP, listing the many companies in similar positions. He explains the four principal things they are looking for and they only tend to get loud and aggressive if they feel they are being ignored. Any CEOs whose companies fit the criteria should be prepared for activist interest, particularly as the UK market is so cheap compared to the US. Private investors may benefit from activist investors, providing they are interested in the long-term health of the company concerned.

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Finlay Mathers of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye on IntelliAM which uses AI software to provide solutions to target inefficiencies for companies in the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sector. Able significantly to reduce the time equipment lies idle, it is small but has really great growth potential.

He also looks at the way profit forecasts in the consumer sector are proving more resilient than their underperforming share prices would suggest. He discusses which sectors and companies are doing well and will continue to succeed.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the disruption to US AI stocks caused by the arrival onto the scene of Deep Seek. If it indeed turns out to be cheaper to train and run, then it throws an enormous spanner in the wheels of the American tech stocks. It also shows just how incredibly volatile those highly-priced shares are. Russ recalls that after previous tech bubbles burst, those stocks went into the deep freeze for long periods. In the UK most of our silicon tech stocks have been taken over so we are less affected and perhaps the inherent value of the UK market will offer some protection.

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Chloe Wong Yun Shing and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss Topps Tiles which is defying the weak housing market and low consumer confidence and recently reported revenue growing again. This momentum is projected to continue, particularly if the acquisition of CTD Tiles goes ahead.

They also return to 4imprint, an American company making promotional products. With excellent management and strong customer retention, it continues to be a strong performer. Being listed in the UK gives investors a rating advantage. They are top of Edison's well-regarded Illuminator Portfolio, available on their website.

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Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that private investor interest in gilts has soared of late, now that they provide a good interest rate and are relatively risk-free, providing that they are held to maturity. They are reckoning, presumably, that inflation will not rise although some of the Budget measures have yet to have their effect, while oil and international food prices are currently rising. Russ points out that the weaker pound is a potential pressure valve for the UK, with UK assets more attractive to overseas buyers. He is concerned, though, that the primary purpose of the UK stock market, to raise capital for businesses, is of far less importance than the secondary, trading, function.

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