Sea Change by Howard Marks

橡树资金创始人Howard Marks关于近期市场近况的见解；Howard在文中表示市场或许正在经历过去二十年中少见的一次巨变。

版权为美国橡树资本管理公司所有，转载 https://www.oaktreecapital.com

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Compositeerased early losses to finish higher Friday to conclude their best week so farthis year, led by continued strength in quarterly earnings reports and a betterthan expected January jobs report. U.S. payrolls came in at a three-month highas employers added more jobs than forecast last month despite a surge inCOVID-19 infections. Average hourly earnings also rose more than expected,although not enough to keep pace with inflation. U.S. Treasury prices fell withthe 10-year yield briefly topping 1.93%, jumping from about 1.5% at the startof the year as the Federal Reserve has signaled a more aggressive fight againstinflation. For the week, the Dow Jones average added 1.1%, the S&P gained1.5%, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.4%.

Oil prices reached seven-year highs onFriday as geopolitical tensions and a winter storm in the United States fueledconcerns over supply disruptions.

Brent crude advanced 2.37% to end theday at $93 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 2.26% higherat $92 per barrel. Both benchmarks were on course for a seventh consecutiveweekly gain.

A winter storm in Texas is behind thelatest oil price rally, fueling concerns about production outages in thePermian Basin, the largest U.S. shale production play. Tight oil suppliespushed the six-month market structure for WTI into steep backwardation(现货溢价) of $8.60a barrel on Friday, the widest since November 2021. Backwardation exists whencontracts for near-term delivery are priced higher than those for later months,encouraging traders to release oil from storage to sell it promptly.

Oil markets have also gained supportfrom tensions surrounding the Ukraine crisis, which have heightened concernsover oil supplies that are already tight.

The late-session recovery in oil priceswas also aided by fresh evidence of OPEC’s struggle to raise output, TheOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led byRussia, together known as OPEC+, agreed this week to stick to moderate outputincreases of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), with the group already strugglingto meet existing targets and despite pressure from top consumers to raiseproduction more quickly.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oilproducer, pumped well below its OPEC+ quota in January, data from state-ownedmarketer showed on Thursday.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, meanwhile,wants more of its oil output to stay at home to tackle rising fuel prices.

Commerzbank has raised its oil priceforecast for the first quarter of 2022 to $90 a barrel, up from $80 previously.Over the medium term, however, Citi Research expects the oil market to flipinto surplus as soon as the next quarter, helping to put the brakes on therecent surge in prices.

A number of analysts have alreadyforecast $100 oil, with WTI up nearly 20% YTD, building on 2021's more than 50%gain. Geopolitical tensions have meanwhile sent jitters through the market,especially the recent standoff playing out between Russia and Ukraine. Thetrends are also highly inflationary, posing trouble for central bankpolicymakers around the globe. Estimates of Fed rate hikes on Wall Street nowrange from three increases all the way to seven for 2022.

Welcometo Wall Street Business Read, bring you the biggest stock market news aroundthe world, I am Ted Zhang, it is January 23rd, enjoy the show!

Today.We are going to talk about Marker Sell-Out and Tech Correction.

Stockscapped their worst week in nearly two years with another round of intensechoppy trading on Friday, sending the S&P 500 tumbling below its 200-daymoving average, a level of support that had held up since May 2020. Both theS&P and Dow closed out their third straight week of losses, down 5.7% and4.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.7% Friday and 7.6% forthe week, its worst weekly decline since March 2020. Netflix was the firstmajor tech stock to report fourth quarter earnings, and shares plunged 22%Friday after the streaming giant posted slower subscriber growth and guided forlower than expected revenues in the current quarter. Other Nasdaq companiessuch as Amazon, Meta Platforms and Tesla fell more than 4%, with Apple and Teslaon deck to report earnings next week. The major losses in growth names havepushed the Nasdaq further in correction territory, down more than 14% since itsNovember high, as rising interest rates pressure technology stocks by makingtheir lofty valuations look less attractive.

Technologystocks officially entered correction territory after Wednesday's late WallStreet selloff. The tech and growth focused Nasdaq 100 fellmore than 1% during the session, bringing the decline from its high to 10.2%.The S&P Info Tech sector is also down 10% from its high,with key component Apple falling below its 50-day moving averagefor the first time since October. By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 6%, despite some recent weakness in cyclical sectors.

Themarket's reliance on tech stocks and other mega-caps for broader gains hasbrought comparisons to the 2000 Dot-com Bubble. If these high-valuation stocksbuckle, lower-weighted sectors will have a very tough time picking up theslack. Morgan Stanley says there's also concern about stocks under the surface,comparing the valuation of the median S&P 500 stock today to that of theTech Bubble.

ButARK Invest's Cathie Wood, whose active funds have been hit hard by this selloffin higher-multiple names, says the bubble lies in value stocks. "In ourview, the wall of worry built on the back of high multiple stocks bodes wellfor equities in the innovation space," Wood declared in ARK's Q4 report."The strongest bull markets do climb a wall of worry, a fact that thosemaking comparisons to the tech and telecom bubble seem to forget. No wall ofworry existed or tested the equity market in 1999. This time around, the wallof worry has scaled to enormous heights."

Oneof the biggest factors putting selling pressure on tech stocks is the rapidrise in real yields seen since the start of the year. The real 10-year Treasuryyield  as measured by theinflation-protected securities now sits at -0.64%, 40 basis points higher fromwhere it closed out 2021. The correlation between Nasdaq 100 performance andthe change in the 10-year real yield is -0.5, "about as low as it's gottenin this post-COVID recession period," noted Mike Wilson, chief equitystrategist at Morgan Stanley. "In other words, changes in yields arecurrently a significant explainer of Nasdaq 100 returns."

UnitedAirlines（联合航空） is betting big on the future of air travel—and that’s good news foreverybody from plane manufacturers（制造商） to other airlines and the traveling public.

Atits investor day Tuesday, United announced（宣布） a huge order for 200 Boeing 737 MAXjets and 70 Airbus A320 planes. The order, with a list price of roughly $27billion, is the largest in the company’s history and the largest by any carrier in a decade, according to the airline.

Forthe record, United Airline ended 2020 with 812 planes in its fleet（机群）. And thecompany is primarily a Boeing airline, but also operates about 180 Airbusplanes. The order for the newest version of the A320 is a nice win for Boeingrival Airbus. But Boeing wasn’t left out, The 747 MAX was re-certified（重新认证） to fly inthe U.S. and Europe in December after being grounded since March 2019 followingtwo deadly crashes within 5 months. United’s order shows airlines still haveconfidence in the MAX and are moving past the plane’s recent problems.

Theclosing price of United Airline on Monday was at around $52. The size and scopeof the order shows United, whose stock is still down 45% from its pre-pandemic（疫情前） highs despite gaining 22% this year, believes travelers will come back topre-Covid levels.

Unitedis also doubling down on traveler comfort. It’s adding 75% more premium seating （头等舱）on North American departures along with larger overhead bins（头顶行李架）, more seatbackentertainment, and Wi-Fi. Air travelers can look forward to a little morelegroom as well as a little less gate-checked baggage.

However,U.S. air traffic, in June, is still roughly 25% below its level before Covid-19Boeing stock is up about 12% year to date, but about 45% below their levelbefore the grounding of the MAX and the pandemic. Overall, the order is goodnews for Boeing, but it also shows United Airline believes travelers will comeback. That’s good news for the entire industry.

Welcometo Wall Street Business Read, bring you the biggest stock market news aroundthe world, I am Ted Zhang, it is June 3rd, enjoy the show!

Today.We are going to talk about AMC Shareholder’s new perk.

Well,gentlemen, turns out all it takes for a company to double its stock price is tooffer its shareholders（股权持有人）some free popcorn. All the management teams out therefocused on driving shareholder returns should take notes.

June2rd, AMC Entertainment Holdings unveiled a new program it calls "AMCInvestor Connect," which promises to put its shareholders in directcontact with the theater chain's management and grant them special offers inthe future. AMC said that it has a shareholder base of over 3 million retailinvestors（散户）, who together own more than 80% of the company。

Here'sCEO Adam Aron in a statement today:

“Many of our investors havedemonstrated（展现） support and confidence（自信心） in AMC. We intend to communicate often withthese investors, and from time to time provide them with special benefits atour theaters. We start with a free large popcorn on us, when they attend theirfirst movie at an AMC theater this summer.”

AMCstock finished at $62 today, up 95% from yesterday's close of $32. The sharespeaked at $72 today—up some 127%—and were briefly halted（暂停） due to volatility（波动）.That's up from the stock's $9 a share less than a month ago, and about $2 inearly January. AMC now has a market value of roughly $31 billion.

Interestingly,retailer investors seem to have more thoughtful reactions on the news. On theAMC Stock Reddit forum, some commentators didn’t want to take money away from AMCby taking free popcorn. One user offered a solution: 'Get the free popcorn andwith that money buy chicken tenders（炸鸡柳）,' they wrote. 'Support the company and senda message.'

Whateverthat message may be, AMC has seen tangible benefits from its meme-driven rallyin recent months. The company has sold hundreds of millions of dollars ofstock, enabling it to recapitalize its balance sheet and weather the pandemic-forcedclosure of its theaters. And as June 3rd pre-market, AMC announced it is goingto sell another 11.5 million shares to the public. That's worth a lot of freepopcorn.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average or DOW is a stock market index thatmeasures the stock performance of 30 large companies listed on the US stockexchange. On the day, DOW jumped 464 points, or 1.5%, passing the 32,000 levelfor the first time ever. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Compositewas essentially flat, a positive sign given the recent volatility for techstocks.

TheDow's 1000-point milestones don't mean all that much these days. Going from31,000 to 32,000, after all, is a mere 3.2% gain. Not quite the 25% gainrequired for the Dow to break 5,000 back in November 1995.

And yetround numbers are always a good time to step back and ask how we got here. Thelatest 1,000-point add took 42 days; it took 29 days to go from 30k to 31k, alevel we reached in early January.

For allthe attention on tech stocks, investors actually have financials andindustrials to thank for the latest celebration. Goldman Sachs was the biggestcontributor to the Dow's pricing formula, responsible for 331 points of itslatest 1,000-point gain. Boeing was second, with 215 points, and Caterpillar wasthird, with 177 points.

Applewas actually a drag on the latest performance, subtracting 72 points from theDow's performance. Same for IBM (-7 points) and cloud giant Salesforce.com (-40points), the Dow's newest entrant.

The IPO market comesroaring back to life with Warner Music Group (WMG) set to price its offering onJune 2. The former Warner Bros. property set a range of $23 to $26 for 70MClass A shares, with an implied valuation of $13.3B at the top end. Warner's stableof musicians includes Ed Sheeran and Bruno Mars.

IPO (Initial Public Offering): 首次公开募股

A smaller IPO isalso due to be priced next week, with Pliant Therapeutics (PLRX) coming to themarket with 6M shares in an expected range of $14 to $16. Also in the IPOuniverse, the quiet periods expire on GAN (NASDAQ:GAN) on June 1 and AyalaPharma (NASDAQ:AYLA) on June 2, while the share lockup period expires for LMPAutomotive (NASDAQ:LMPX) on June 2.

Quiet Period: 平静期

Lock-up Period: 锁定期

Nineteen hours afterSpaceX's (SPACE) Falcon 9 rocket lifted off Saturday from Florida on a historicvoyage, the Crew Dragon capsule docked with the International Space Station. Itwas the first-ever private spacecraft to attain orbit with people on board andmarks the final test flight before the company begins flying astronauts everyfew months. SpaceX competitor Boeing (NYSE:BA) even congratulated the company,saying the mission to the ISS "marked a new era in human spaceflight.Welcome, #CrewDragon!"

Historic Voyage：历史航程

ISS (International Space Station) : 国际空间站

Capsule：胶囊

Astronauts：航天员

Zoom Video(NASDAQ:ZM) has announced plans to strengthen encryption on video calls made bypaying clients and institutions such as schools, but not for users of itspopular free accounts. The plan is drawing mixed reactions from privacyadvocates, with some saying Zoom should offer protected video more widely. Froma business perspective, it's hard to make money when offering a sophisticatedand expensive encryption service for free.

Encryption Service：加密服务

U.S. stock index futures soared 2% overnight, suggesting the S&P 500 will open above its 200-day moving average as trading resumes after Memorial Day. Americans were drawn to bars, beaches and parks during the holiday despite the number of U.S. deaths from COVID-19 approaching 100,000, while biotech company Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) started the first human study of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. "It's the grand re-opening that matters, with the S&P 500 within earshot of the psychologically fundamental 3,000 mark," said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp.
美国股市指数期货隔夜飙升2％，表明标准普尔500指数将在纪念日周末后恢复交易，开盘于其200天移动均线上方。尽管美国死于COVID-19的人数接近100,000人，但美国人在假日期间仍被吸引到酒吧，海滩和公园。生物技术公司Novavax（NASDAQ：NVAX）开始了对其冠状病毒实验性疫苗的首次人类研究。 AxiCorp首席全球市场策略师斯蒂芬·英尼斯（Stephen Innes）表示：“重要的是重新开放，标准普尔500指数位于心理基本水平3,000点附近。”


Only a quarter of the NYSE's usual population of traders will be back on the floor today as the exchange reopens following a two-month closure prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Traders who return must wear masks, avoid taking public transportation and follow social-distancing rules. Liability waivers must also be signed that prevent them from suing the NYSE if they get infected at the exchange. Splashy bell ringings and IPO celebrations will remain absent, as well as media broadcasts from the floor.
由于在COVID-19大流行引发的两个月停业后，纽约股票交易所（NYSE），但是交易所中的交易员中只有四分之一重新回到场上。并且人员必须戴口罩，避免乘坐公共交通工具，并遵守远离社会的规则；还必须签署责任豁免书，以防止他们在交易所受到感染时起诉纽约证券交易所。同时，现场将不会出现敲铃仪式和IPO庆祝活动，也不会有媒体广播出现。


Latam Airlines files for bankruptcy: Latin America's biggest air carrier initiated a voluntary restructuring under Chapter 11 protection in New York, with the support of the Cueto family and Qatar Airways, two of its largest shareholders. Latam (NYSE:LTM) also sold a 20% stake to Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) for $1.9B in 2019. "We are looking ahead to a post-Covid-19 future and are focused on transforming our group to adapt to a new and evolving way of flying, with the health and safety of our passengers and employees being paramount," said CEO Roberto Alvo.
Latam航空公司申请破产：在最大的两个股东Cueto家族和卡塔尔航空公司的支持下，拉丁美洲最大的航空公司在纽约破产法第11章的保护下发起了自愿重组。 Latam（NYSE：LTM）还在2019年以$ 1.9B的价格向达美航空Delta Air Lines（NYSE：DAL）出售了20％的股份。“我们期待Covid-19后的未来，并致力于转变我们的团队以适应一种新的，不断发展的飞行方式，我们的乘客和员工的健康和安全至关重要。”首席执行官罗伯托·阿尔沃（Roberto Alvo）说。




Signs of U.S. IPO market reopening: The market for public equity sales "is picking up sooner than anticipated," said Neil Kell, chairman of global capital markets for Bank of America. "You're going to see a wave of IPOs come to market that are larger rather than smaller because in volatile markets investors want more liquidity." Six companies have filed plans to float in the U.S. in the past two weeks, surpassing all the filings in April, according to Refinitiv. The list includes online car seller Vroom (VRM) and fintech provider Shift4 Payments (FOUR). Others that have registered to list this year include Warner Music (WMGC) and Albertsons (ACI).
美国银行全球资本市场主席尼尔·凯尔（Neil Kell）说，美国IPO市场重新开放的迹象：公开发售股票的市场“比预期的要早起来。” “您将会看到一波规模更大而不是规模较小的IPO上市，因为在动荡的市场中，投资者希望获得更多的流动性。”据Refinitiv称，过去两周有六家公司提出了在美国上市的计划，超过了四月份的所有申请量。该列表包括在线汽车销售商Vroom（VRM）和金融科技提供商Shift4 Payments（FOUR）。今年已经登记上市的其他公司包括华纳音乐（WMGC）和艾伯森（ACI）。




VW loses landmark Dieselgate case: Germany's highest civil court has ruled that Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) must pay compensation to motorists who purchased vehicles with manipulated diesel engines. The ruling, which will allow owners to return their vehicles for partial reimbursement of the purchase price, sets a benchmark for about 60K lawsuits that are still pending with lower German courts. VW has already paid out more than €30B in damages, fines and buyback schemes worldwide since its Dieselgate scandal first broke in 2015.
大众公司失去了具有里程碑意义的“柴油门”（Dieselgate）案：德国最高民事法院裁定，大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）必须向购买被操纵柴油发动机车辆的驾驶人支付赔偿。该裁决将允许车主归还车辆以部分偿还购买价，该裁决为大约60,000宗尚待德国下级法院审理的诉讼设定了基准。自2015年“柴油门”（Dieselgate）丑闻首次爆发以来，大众汽车已经在全球范围内支付了超过30B欧元的赔偿，罚款和回购计划。