The AI boom is being built on borrowed money - and not the kind you can easily track. This week, Nitesh and Vineet go deep on private credit: what it is, why it exploded after 2008, and how firms like Blue Owl are now sitting on billions of dollars of opaque, leveraged loans made to AI data center operators - some of whom used to be crypto miners.

We break down listed retail investment vehicles and mini bank runs, why lenders are the most blindly optimistic people in the entire AI ecosystem, and what happens when IOUs are built on top of IOUs built on top of IOUs.

Plus: Claude Code's surprisingly small ARR, Larry Ellison quietly betting on Warner Brothers instead of AI, and the ChatGPT car wash test that says everything about where we are right now.

Links:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4873478-blue-owl-capital-retail-panics-smart-money-buys

https://notpricedin.substack.com/p/book-smarts

Follow Hype Cycles: https://www.youtube.com/@hype_cycles

This week on Hype Cycles (formerly known as What Was That?!, an SEO nightmare), we go into the (use case) fundamentals of Bitcoin. Why does it exist? What problem does it solve for, and does it succeed? Is it a currency, an asset, or a gambling chip?

We start where all good crypto origin stories begin: the 2008 financial crisis. We walk through how Bitcoin was born out of distrust in institutions… and then promptly set about trying to rebuild said institutions from scratch. Exchanges become banks. Stablecoins become central banks. “Be your own bank” quietly becomes “you can totally believe me” Somewhere between Silk Road, fractional reserve rediscovered live on Twitter, and NFTs for wedding vows, we watch an entire parallel financial system speedrun 100 years of financial scams in five.

Then we go deeper. Asset or currency? Party or broker? You can’t be both. If it’s money, you spend it. If it’s going to the moon, you hoard it. The contradiction sits at the heart of Bitcoin’s entire hype cycle. We also widen the lens to blockchain, NFTs, land records, medical records, blood diamonds.

By the end, we arrive at stablecoins, which are basically central banks for the paranoid. Nitesh believes there's a future for Bitcoin. Vineet is skeptical.

Welcome back to What Was That?! , where Nitesh and Vineet discuss the latest in tech, business, and how it impacts us. This week, we try to figure out whether Claude has quietly detonated the software industry or whether everyone just discovered a shiny new hammer and is now declaring the end of carpentry. The trigger: a string of Claude upgrades - tool calling, desktop control, MCP servers - that can now read your files, move things around your machine, talk to internet services, and even build code in plain English. Indian IT stocks promptly had a small panic attack. Naturally.

We break down what actually changed. Generative AI is still a probabilistic word predictor with better context windows, not consciousness. But when you combine language models with file access and service integration, things get interesting, And slightly terrifying, but not in the Terminator sense - context failures, hallucinated commands, malware risks, and the minor issue that most humans have no idea what edge cases even are.

We rant about Indian IT firms, decades of labor arbitrage, $100+ billion in dividends and buybacks instead of R&D, and whether AI is finally the long-awaited reckoning.

And just when things get existential, we arrive at Moltbook - an AI-only social network where bots talk to bots and occasionally shout about nuclear war in all caps. Elon calls it early singularity. We call it Reddit fanfic.

Link to a fantastic explainer video: https://x.com/shanselman/status/2018117809931489418?s=20

00:00 Intro and the problem with generic podcast names
03:45 What actually happened with Claude this week
04:09 Indian IT stocks drop and market reaction
05:47 What generative AI really is - token prediction explained
07:46 Tool calling and Claude controlling your computer
09:52 MCP servers interacting with internet services
11:07 Combining tools - Why this suddenly feels powerful
12:16 Nitesh explains his use case for Open Claw
15:26 Productivity gains versus real world risk
20:07 Enterprise software - is it actually threatened?
22:50 Context windows - where AI still fails
24:31 Why personal automation could break the internet
29:05 Will software engineering shrink or adapt
33:00 Indian IT systemic risk and labor arbitrage debate
44:21 Enter Moltbook, the AI social network
46:01 Bots talking to bots and singularity headlines
48:26 Why Moltbook is not consciousness
49:10 SaaS investing and what changes next
51:17 Bitcoin as the promised hedge that nobody uses
54:29 Wrap up and teaser for Bitcoin episode

It's What Was That?! Time, and this time we went deeeeeeep into the AI industry's financial mess, and also the recent GST announcements in India. There's enshittification going on - there's a bubble - there's cash flow issues and crazy hiring - and just so much hype. Links:https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap/https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/28/anthropic-unveils-new-rate-limits-to-curb-claude-code-power-users/www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/openai-raise-chatgpt-users.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/silicon-valley-ai-infrastructure-capex-cffe0431https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/governance/next-gen-gst-reform-india-set-for-tax-simplification-and-growth-boost-by-diwali-2025/123362905Chapters00:00 Intro, and some fun book reccos!08:54 GST 3.0 and Economic Implications21:23 AI Developments and GPT-5 Launch33:55 The Impact of AI Pricing Models on User Behavior36:44 Challenges in AI Model Selection and User Experience39:25 The Sustainability of Layer One AI Services42:17 The Role of Hardware in AI Development46:03 Financial Risks and Cash Flow Issues in the AI Industry48:47 Cultural Implications of AI Companionship01:04:37 Future of AI and Gaming Regulations

It's What Was That?! time, and our stories are getting longer and deeper, no jokes related to last week's topic, please. We discuss how Google Play Store has lost a key court case about the fees charged by its Play Store services. It's a big one, they're appealing for sure, but this is a key loss with ramifications for their global ops. Nitesh gets into some of Tata Sons' struggles as it tries to manage its vast portfolio across many, many different sectors. Links: https://www.theverge.com/news/716856/epic-v-google-win-in-appeals-courtAnd, more importantly, Kung Fu Hustle:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SN43SPZMNuohttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ixeHttmdsZY

It's What Was That?! Time again. We did deep dives into two stories this time - one, how rapidly solar power capacity is increasing, far beyond most people's expectations, and what it means from the lens of geopolitics, economics and the environment - all areas we have no expertise in. It's a fascinating story, based on this article: https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/46-billion-years-on-the-sun-is-having-a-momentNitesh digs deep into the history and recent news about Cupid Ltd - a company that fits the one-man-against-the-odds archetype. Yup, really, it's a great story.

It's What Was That time again, in an episode where Nitesh and Vineet talk about betting markets in scandal over what defines a suit, and Tiffany the jewellery company collaborating with Patek Philippe and losing goodwill by irritating the folks who wanted to, y'know, give money and get a watch. By taking their money, giving them jewellery, promising them the option to buy a watch in the future, and then refusing to sell the watch. Both stories leading Vineet to conclude that maybe rich people have too much money. Oh, and we also go deep into Intel making a few really bad decisions, in hindsight, and how companies can grow to be giants and still try to innovate. Nitesh also compared Archies (y'know, the gift card guys) with Lockheed Martin (y'know, totally not the gift card guys). Fun times. Links:https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/intel-facing-a-blackberry-moment-as-thousands-laid-off-ceo-says-too-late-to-catch-up-with-ai-as-firm-falls-out-of-global-top-10/articleshow/122390727.cmshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-07-17/tiffany-s-blue-dial-nautilus-watch-release-frayed-its-patek-relationshiphttps://notpricedin.substack.com/p/archetypes-and-heartacheshttps://notpricedin.substack.com/p/2-heavy-lies-the-crownhttps://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/

A lot of action, both on the business side and the tech side in the AI industry. Acquisition offers - both for townships, and for people. Fun fact: Meta offered *one guy* a signing bonus that's equal to what Welspun offered to pay for all of Lavasa. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/property-/-cstruction/welspun-bids-the-most-for-lavasa-corporation-lodha-developers-jindal-steel-and-power-group-in-fray-too/articleshow/122146710.cmsWelspun has put in a bid for Lavasa. Is this finally the start of the revival of the famed but ill-fated township? Let's hope.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZUG0pr5hBoSam Altman's interviews are getting more and more vague, and the promises more befuddling. Are we at peak AI bubble? Also because Meta has been hiring people at, there is no better word for this, INSANE signing bonuses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-27/roger-federer-s-long-term-deals-make-him-a-tennis-billionaireFederer is a billionaire now, thanks to his association with On Running.https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2025/Jul/03/foxconn-recalls-chinese-staff-from-india-apples-local-expansion-faces-setbackFoxconn recalls top staff from India, on instructions from the Chinese Government. And more!

We recorded two weeks in a row! Vineet and Nitesh discuss a ton of ranging from Ferrari's first SUV-is-not-an-SUV, to the complexities of India's vehicle registration system. We look into the consolidation and evolution of India's paint industry, the impact of AI on financial certifications, and the ongoing struggles of OpenAI in securing funding, and the interesting dance going on between OpenAI, Softbank and Microsoft. We also talk about a fascinating new book - Apple in China by Patrick McGee. https://appleinchina.com/https://m.economictimes.com/industry/cons-products/paints/jsw-paints-to-buy-akzo-nobel-india-for-rs-9000-cr-announcement-today/articleshow/122098689.cms

It's What Was That?! time again. A lot has been happening, in both the business world and the tech world. People are making wills suddenly, after a few rather sad incidents. Greater Than has been acquired, and it seems like a big win for Diageo. People are dating ChatGPT. They're making it their therapist. They're feeding into conspiracy theories. And the world is...getting...weird. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/technology/chatgpt-ai-chatbots-conspiracies.htmlGoogle is about to change how the web works...yet again. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20250611-ai-mode-is-google-about-to-change-the-internet-foreverThere's a LOT of family drama going over at Sun TV, and since there's a political family involved, the hosts would just like to say that we agree with everyone concerned, everyone is absolutely correct and perfect. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/media/entertainment/dayanidhi-maran-sends-legal-notice-to-sun-tv-cmd-kalanithi-maran-says-brother-seized-group-control-fraudulently/articleshow/121960814.cmsAnd much more! Do tune in, and share.