IMA Insights

The world economy is today delicately poised. America has avoided the recession that analysts have been projecting for over a year, but recent data indicate that it could be at a tipping point. China, meanwhile, is plainly amidst a slowdown while India continues to grow at a fair clip and the Eurozone presents a mixed bag. Guiding the forward view is a highly volatile geopolitical environment, marked by upcoming US elections, a potentially full-blown war in the Middle East and, for India, a new crisis in Bangladesh. 

At recent joint sessions of the India CEO and CFO Forums across cities, Adit Jain, IMA India’s Chairman and Editorial Director, provided a medium-term view for the world economy, set in the context of an increasingly uncertain global politics. This podcast summarises these discussions.

 IMA recently published its ‘Vision 2030: India’s Growth Frontiers’ report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving the country’s economic transformation. This report aims to provide strategic insights and recommendations to navigate what is undoubtedly an exciting and dynamic environment, while decoding the nuances of India's economic journey in the years ahead. Given the sheer length of the report, we will be sharing bite-sized extracts from the study over the next few weeks. 

The third episode of this series looks at the shifting nature of household savings.

It would be fair to say that India has been blessed with some of the world's most scenic places. Himalayan towns with magnificent views of the Great Himalayan Range, or lesser ranges like the Dhauladhars or the Pir Panjal are stunning from any benchmark. 

The tragedy is that over construction of hotels has created concrete monstrosities. The lack of infrastructure leads to clogged roads and rubbish dumped in scenic forests and in the valleys. Over-tourism has deflated the life out of such places. This is a tragedy,  as this podcast explains. 

At our recent Q2 FY25 CHRO Dialogues in Delhi and Bangalore, our second session was an open house, moderated by IMA’s Chairman and Editorial Director, Adit Jain, on two perennially-important issues: attrition and talent management. 
This podcast  summarises key takeaways from the discussions 

India's agriculture sector is crucial for the country’s food security. It also supports the livelihoods of over 40% of the population and strongly influences the growth of consumer markets. An abundant monsoon this year, and favourable policies on minimum support prices (MSPs) and import duties will likely ease rural distress in the short term. However, the sector faces major long-term challenges, such as fragmented farm holdings, sub-optimal cropping patterns, under-investment in machinery and scientific methods and (especially in certain regions) a heavy reliance on rainfall. It is evident what needs to be done to reform the sector, but the political will to implement difficult choices is often missing. 

At a recent all-Forum online session, the first in our ‘Sector Spotlight’ series, Harish Damodaran, National Rural Affairs and Agriculture Editor at The Indian Express, offered a forward-looking view on India’s agriculture landscape. This podcast summarises these discussions.

IMA recently published its ‘Vision 2030: India’s Growth Frontiers’ report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving the country’s economic transformation. This report aims to provide strategic insights and recommendations to navigate what is undoubtedly an exciting and dynamic environment, while decoding the nuances of India's economic journey in the years ahead. Given the sheer length of the report, we will be sharing bite-sized extracts from the study over the next few weeks. 

The second episode of this series looks at how India's consumer markets are transforming, reflecting broader shifts in its economy and society. For instance:

• High-income households will double by 2030 and upper-middle-class ones will surge by 60%, driving significant consumption growth. Per capita income may rise from USD 2,860 in 2024 to USD 4,660–5,500 by 2030, fuelling a consumption boom.
• With a young population and low dependency ratio, India’s demographic dividend will drive increased spending, especially among millennials and Gen Z.
• By 2030, over 40% of India will be urbanised, with rural consumption increasingly mimicking urban trends due to rising aspirations and access to modern retail. 
• UPI and the internet are transforming consumer behaviour, with digital payments projected to drive 90% of e-Commerce transactions.
• Volume growth, premiumisation and modernisation will dominate, with rising demand for premium goods in categories like cars, air travel, and luxury goods.
• Indian consumers prioritise cultural authenticity over westernisation, with local values influencing consumption patterns, even as they modernise.
• Mobility and the internet are blending regional traditions, with younger consumers open to experimentation across food, fashion, and leisure.

US Treasury markets are suggestive of a cooling economy. Investors expect many rate cuts, as yields on bonds have refused to rise. Lower yields on long-term Treasuries, suggest that there is still a scramble to buy safe assets as volatility in riskier asset classes, specifically shares, will continue with further bouts of pounding. 

Gold is in high demand – a situation that normally presents itself when other assets face trouble. It would be reasonable to assume that investors are no longer exuberant about market conditions, a phase usually associated as a forerunner to a correction. This podcast provides a perspective on commodities, markets and interest rates.

Recently, the government passed the Digital Personal Data Protection Act (DPDP). Its primary purpose is to regulate the collection and processing of digital personal data and respect individuals' rights. 

The way the system will work is that the government will create a Data Protection Board, as the supervising agency to monitor, enforce rules and impose penalties when appropriate. The board would adjudicate a dispute between those whose personal data has been given to a platform and the platform which has in turn breached the obligations under the Act. Companies are understandably concerned that even unintended slips can lead to serious charges of violation. This opens up a completely new industry that promises auditing of an organisation’s processes to ensure compliance. The cost of doing business will consequently jump. 
This podcast explains.

IMA recently published its ‘Vision 2030: India’s Growth Frontiers’ report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving the country’s economic transformation. This report aims to provide strategic insights and recommendations to navigate what is undoubtedly an exciting and dynamic environment, while decoding the nuances of India's economic journey in the years ahead. Given the sheer length of the report, we will be sharing bite-sized extracts from the study over the next few weeks. 

The first episode of this series looks at the both the drivers and the challenges that will shape the India of 2030, including: 

• Economic Growth: India’s GDP could reach between USD 5.2 trillion and USD 7.8 trillion by 2030, greatly boosting per capita income and consumption.
• Consumption-Led Expansion: By 2030, India will be one of the world’s main growth drivers, with private consumption exceeding 60% of GDP, supported by a young population and rising incomes.
• Sectoral Shifts: Agriculture's share will decline, while services, manufacturing and infrastructure will dominate the economy.
•  Capital Inflows: Strong FDI, particularly in services and IT, coupled with evolving financial markets, will open new opportunities for growth.
• Challenges: Key risks include low investment rates, fiscal pressures, declining savings, skill gaps and inadequate social security. These must be addressed to sustain growth.

The new government's maiden Budget introduces significant changes impacting businesses, including revisions to the capital-gains regime, dispute settlements, reassessments, buy-back taxation and the FDI rules. Significantly, the tone of the Budget speech mirrored this year’s Economic Survey, signalling a coordinated approach to economic policymaking. Notably, the Finance Minister has set a six-month timeline to introduce a new Direct Tax Code, replacing the outdated 1961 law. Additionally, a committee will review customs tariff duty structures, with recommendations expected soon. 

At a recent India CFO Forum session in Delhi, Mukesh Bhutani, Managing Partner, BMR Legal, reviewed these changes and outlined the likely future direction of tax law and investment-related rules and regulations. This podcast summarises these discussions.