December 11, 2024

In-Ear Insights: Rapid Scenario Planning with Generative AI

30 minutes

In this episode of In-Ear Insights, the Trust Insights podcast, Katie and Chris discuss rapid scenario planning for your business with the help of generative AI. You discover methods for using generative AI to plan for multiple potential futures, equipping you to handle various situations. You learn to identify constants in your business, like revenue goals, and how these can guide your planning process. You gain insights into leveraging AI tools for rapid scenario planning, helping you react swiftly to changes. You explore practical steps to prepare for uncertainties, ensuring you stay agile and proactive in a dynamic environment.

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Machine-Generated Transcript

What follows is an AI-generated transcript. The transcript may contain errors and is not a substitute for listening to the episode.

Christopher S. Penn 00:00

In this week’s In-Ear Insights, I got a question recently from a community member on LinkedIn who was asking what my forecast and trends and predictions for 2025 were. In particular, they were asking about the retail sector. As I was crafting my answer, Katie, you were in my head the entire time saying, “Well, there’s not just one forecast, there are many.” Because you have to think about, “What’s the worst-case scenario? What’s the best-case scenario? What if nothing changes?” As I was thinking this through, I was realizing that there is so much uncertainty right now that even understanding what the worst-case scenario is really challenging.

Christopher S. Penn 00:43

So, I wanted to revisit scenario planning and forecasting, and sort of a look back and then a look ahead. I’m not going to make this a politics show, but we know that there are big changes coming in nations around the planet. France is having a change of government right now. Syria just had a change of government. The United States is having a change of government. So, it’s not just one place, it’s all over. The changes themselves are becoming so rapid. Just in the AI and analytics space alone, we have new frontier and foundation models coming out. It feels like every day over the weekend, LG, the Korean appliance maker, released their brand new state-of-the-art model.

Christopher S. Penn 01:26

I didn’t know the refrigerator company made those that are competitive with Alibaba’s Quinn models. So, all of this to say, how do you do scenario planning when you can’t even figure out what the scenarios are that you’re planning for? You say, “Yeah, worst-case scenario, is global thermonuclear war an option? Is a new pandemic an option?” It certainly seems that way. How do you do this?

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