G3 and Weiss’s Michael Edwards go deep on the debt ceiling situation, which is playing out in real time before the eyes of a watchful and nervous nation.

In this wide-ranging discussion (recorded on Tuesday, May 23rd at 10:00am), Mike breaks down the probabilities of the various scenarios in which the debt ceiling situation is ultimately resolved. He also weighs in on how the markets could react to a resolution and the impact of Donald Trump in shaping the debate.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode.

A final note: We are releasing this episode a day ahead of our usual Friday schedule in recognition of the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

Time Stamps:

• How does market complacency compound the overall danger of the debt ceiling situation? [2:22]
• What are the positives and negatives of the progress made thus far in the negotiations? [3:28]
• What are the probabilities associated with the various potential outcomes? [9:42]
• What is the likelihood of a last-minute agreement that also enables Kevin McCarthy to retain his position as Speaker of the House? [17:07]
• Will the looming presence of Donald Trump impact the outcome to the debt ceiling drama? [29:46]

Resources:

• The Problem Solvers Caucus
• The Hastert Rule
• Rep. Thomas Massey on the 72 hour rule (video)

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

In this AJA (Ask Jordi Anything) episode recorded on May 3rd, 2023, G3 asks Jordi questions on behalf of listeners who have contacted Weiss via the In Search of Green Marbles website.

Topics include marking to market illiquid investments, the future of the college experience, the impact of large language models (LLMs) on investment management, Europe vs. US equity markets, AI as a deflationary force and passive vs. active management in a real rate environment.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode.

Time Stamps:

• Why is it important for illiquid assets to be marked to market if the investment horizon for these instruments is in years? [2:05]
• How does Jordi expect the future of the college experience to change in the next decade? [5:30]
• How has the advancement of LLMs (Large Language Models) changed the equity management business? [9:44]
• What are Jordi’s thoughts on the divergence between European and US equity markets? [13:00]
• Which will win out in the long run: the forces putting structurally upward pressure on prices or deflationary forces? [16:26]
• How will the interest rate environment impact the performance of passive ETF investment vehicles moving forward? [19:22]

Resources:

• Please ask Jordi anything here
• SVB, ChatGPT and the Future of Trust: The Bitcoin Moment
• What are Large Language Models Used For?

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

G3 welcomes Jordi Visser, president and CIO of Weiss, onto the pod.

In this far-reaching conversation, Jordi shares his views on the continued wall of worry that is plaguing many participants in the markets. Specific topics covered include recent economic data, the status of regional banks, America’s debt ceiling drama, AI, and Bitcoin. Last but certainly not least, Jordi and G3 discuss the most recent Kentucky Derby.

Please check important disclosure at the end of this episode.

Time Stamps:

• What is Jordi’s take on Mage’s Kentucky Derby win? [1:09]
• Is the decline of KRE, the regional bank index, an indication of trouble for the market? [4:41]
• Why are Stanley Druckenmiller, Hugh Hendry and other market influencers warning of doom and gloom? [7:29]
• What green marbles of hope does Jordi see on the horizon? [16:38]
• What is Jordi’s current outlook on Bitcoin and ChatGPT? [22:18]

Resources:

• The Risk? No Recession [VIDEO]
• Jordi Visser on the Pomp Podcast
• The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby
• Poor market sentiment and strong liquidity at regional banks
• Hugh Hendry shares his views on the systematic risk

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

In this episode, recorded on Wednesday, May 3rd at 4:30pm, G3 talks with Lundy Wright, Weiss’s bond expert, on the back of Fed Day.

Topics covered include economic levels vs. the rate of change and the Fed’s decision to hike rates and tweak its official statement. They also discussed Chairman Powell’s subsequent press conference, how Powell handled questions about the fragility of America’s regional banks, and why the markets continue to price in rate cuts for the back half of this year.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode.

Time Stamps:

• What is the value of financial change analysis based on the state of economic levels? [2:22]
• Were there any surprises in the Fed’s latest rate hike or in Powell’s speech following the Fed’s decision? [7:56]
• Should the market expect rate cuts based on Powell’s comments? [15:47]
• What does Lundy believe would be worse than a recession? [17:16]

Resources:

• Official FOMC statement
• Powell press conference (video)
• US rate futures price in a Fed pause and rate cuts

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

In this episode of Green Marbles, which was recorded on Thursday, April 27th, G3 speaks with Jordi Visser, president and CIO of Weiss, to talk about the overarching pessimism in equities that is pervasive throughout the market today.

Specifically, they discuss the old concept of a wall of worry. This time around, are the pessimists right to expect equities to falter, or will markets once again ascend the wall? As usual, Jordi offers his unvarnished opinion. In doing so, he’ll make reference to “the new Fed put” and the “new rules of the game.”

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode and join us to get Jordi’s take.

Time Stamps:

• What does Jordi believe would cause a recession? [7:36]
• How does the Elliot Wave theory play into the market narrative and why does it change? [15:17]
• Why could negative market sentiment pave the way for a future FOMO? [17:39]
• Which part of the equity market could outperform in H2, 2023? [19:25]

Resources:

• Ask Jordi a question
• Jordi’s video on junk yields vs. fed fund rates
• What is the wall of worry?
• “Don’t Fight the Fed”

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

On this week’s Green Marbles, G3 welcomes Mike Edwards, Deputy CIO at Weiss.

Silicon Valley Bank and some other notable bank issues may be in the past, but the ripple effects from these situations continue to influence the markets. In this episode, Mike will discuss some of those ripple effects with an emphasis on how the private markets have reacted thus far and what could be in store for them and the public markets in the future.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode and feel free to follow and review us wherever you get your pods.

Time Stamps:

• Has the banking crisis sparked new thinking in how allocators are assessing portfolio allocation decisions? [2:43]
• Why does Mike believe that the ‘traffic around the accident’ is worse than the SVB collapse itself? [9:15]
• How is the private market being impacted by the ripple effects of the banking stressors and the nature of financial conditions right now? [13:44]
• How will inflation and interest rates impact the VC market? [20:30]
• Is commercial real estate a ‘watched pot’? [27:13]

Resources:

• McKinsey private markets review
• The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen
• Rising interest rates are putting VCs back in their lanes

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

With the Kentucky Derby just 22 days away, Weiss’s president and CIO, Jordi Visser, has been sifting through the data and analyzing how this year’s race is shaping up.

A longstanding handicapper, Visser will soon release his annual analysis of the Derby, which has become a widely anticipated thought piece by both hardcore and casual fans of horseracing.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode and make sure to sign-up below to receive Jordi’s annual Kentucky Derby paper.

Time Stamps:

• Why does Jordi believe that investors should be looking at the markets like a horse race? [3:50]
• What are the major themes in this year's Kentucky Derby race relative to other years? [5:55]
• What does Jordi think of Tapit Trice’s win over Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes race? [12:49]
• Will recency bias be a factor in this year’s betting trends given Rich Strike’s win last year, overcoming 80-1 odds? [15:58]
• What Kentucky Derby resources does Jordi recommend? [23:26]

Resources:

• Sign-up to Jordi’s Kentucky Derby Paper
• Ask Jordi a Question
• 2023 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
• Equibase.com
• Brisnet Speed Ratings
• Blinkers Off Racing Dudes

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

This week, Weiss’s China expert, Mike Edwards, joined G3 on Wednesday morning, April 5th, to discuss the latest moves – or more precisely, flexes – by China on the global stage.

Topics covered include China’s influence over OPEC, the recent Xi-Putin summit, China’s role in brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China’s cultivation of nations ranging from Honduras to Egypt, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the US and the recent US congressional hearing on TikTok.

As always, please check important disclosures at the episode and if you’re feeling generous, please leave us a review.

Time Stamps:

• Is China trying to gain a competitive advantage by paying less for oil than the rest of the world? [8:40]
• Does the peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, secure Xi’s involvement in future OPEC decisions? [11:22]
• How has the US responded to China’s debt restructuring in Ghana? [14:41]
• How is China building a new Egyptian capital outside of Cairo? [18:14]
• Why does Mike think Honduras and other Latin American nations have flipped their allegiance from Taipei to Beijing? [23:07]
• Why is the Tik Tok congressional hearing significant? [28:20]

Resources:

• McCarthy meets Taiwan President Tsai despite China’s threats
• China brokers historic truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran
• China is building a new Egyptian capital in the desert (video)

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

Weiss’s President and CIO comments on the banking system, commercial real estate, and why Bitcoin is on the rise.

A great deal has happened in the markets since Jordi Visser, president and CIO of Weiss, has been on the podcast.

Listeners of this show should not be surprised to hear that Jordi has accumulated a lot of thoughts in response to recent events. So, this week, we’ll get his views on the current state of the markets, the banking system, and Bitcoin. We’ll also check in with him regarding the upcoming Kentucky Derby prep races.

Please check important disclosures at the end of this episode.

Time Stamps:

• Is the worst of the volatility due to the banking crisis behind us? [3:24]
• Does Jordi think that the commercial real estate sector is in a dire situation? [6:38]
• Why is Bitcoin performing so well in the current environment, and why does it matter? [13:28]
• Does the regional banking crisis play into Jordi’s views on Bitcoin? [19:53]
• How is this year’s Kentucky Derby shaping up as we get into the homestretch of the prep races? [24:23]

Resources:

• Jordi’s video on Bitcoin chart moves
• Jordi’s latest webinar: Strong Jobs – Now What?
• The $1mm Bitcoin bet
• The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan
• Forte seems dominant ahead of the Florida Derby
• Don’t Forget the Debt Podcast

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

Weiss’s Deputy CIO explores the political and market implications of the banking bailout and how it will affect Congress’s response to the debt-ceiling crisis.

This week’s Green Marbles features Weiss’s policy and politics expert, Mike Edwards. Mike and G3 discuss recent stressors on America’s banking system. They proceed to explore how the Biden Administration's handling of the SVB crisis and its communications pertaining to America’s banking system could impact the politics of the looming debt ceiling debate.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode

Time Stamps:

• How will the current banking situation progress near term? [2:13]
• How will the broader politics behind the debt-ceiling issue address the regulatory bailouts? [10:46]
• Assuming bank failures remain limited, how does Mike think the next few months leading up to a resolution will play out? [15:28]
• Can McCarthy be a constructive force if fellow Republicans motion to vacate the chair? [21:45]
• Will the treasury bonds held by U.S. regional banks prove to be the silver lining of the crisis? [26:06]

Resources:

• Jordi's latest webinar: Markets Diverge Post FOMC
• Senator Lankford’s exchange with Secretary Yellen
• Veda Partners' Treyz on McCarthy's Future

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.