The minutes of the latest Bank of Japan meeting comes a week after the Fed signalled the economy was moving in the right direction for it to start cutting rates. Look out for the latest GDP growth rate print from the UK and Germany. France and the US release consumer confidence figures. Plus, Kingfisher and retailer H&M hand in their corporate report cards.

‘I would be disappointed if copper prices fell below support levels of around $8,860.’, said analyst and partner at SP Angel, John Meyer, ‘In fact, due to the current mood music out of China, I expect copper to stay above $9,000 per metric ton in the coming week’. Meyer also speaks to IG’s @AngelineOng about his outlook for gold and iron ore.

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Big week for rate decisions across four central banks; the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE). Only the BoJ could move with markets expecting at least some loosening of its long held yield curve control, of course the Japanese central bank go for a rise in its 0% rate policy, that could see a spike in the yen, but more likely that will come in April. Outside of this FX traders will be on alert too with the German ZEW & Ifo reports, a full panoply of flash PMI data on Thursday and the UK inflation data from the consumers, producers and also the retail price index. Earnings include US all-sessions stocks Nike, Micron Tech and UK clothing retailer Next on FY numbers.  

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‘Nvidia is very much like Ford in the automotive revolution,’ John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management tells IG’s @AngelineOng, ‘and the chip giant’s growth is likely to continue as it changes the playing field for almost every industry.’

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With the dollar now having seen three weeks of losses, will the US data out next week continue to push the greenback down? Outside of this the government in the UK is desperately seeking evidence that the recession in Q3 and Q4 of last year is over, will the GDP data on Wednesday prove this? GBPUSD is now at high levels not seen since December 2023. Corporates in the week include Oracle (ORCL) on fiscal third-quarter earnings, UK housebuilders including Persimmon (PSN), Berkeley Group (BKG) and Vistry (VTY). There are also house prices, for February, in China which will give an updated insight into the beleaguered property sector in the country.

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Recent comments from US Republican election hopeful, Donald Trump suggest that not enough is being done in Europe especially, to assist NATO in its defence spending. Owing to the war in Ukraine, demand for weapons in Europe has soared, but there remains potential upside for traditional arms companies as well as new technology businesses in the cyber security industry. As Tom Bailey, from HanETF says Future of Defence UCITS ETF (NATO) provides exposure to the companies generating revenue from NATO and NATO+ ally defence and cyber defence spending.

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There is unlikely to be any move in rates from either the Bank of Canada (BoC) or the European Central Bank (ECB) but the interesting angle will be the commentary. Will both signal their intention to cut rates? Two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters recently suggest that the ECB will begin cutting rates in June. The BoC has its benchmark rate at 7.2%, one of the highest in developed economies and mortgage holders are crying out in pain so the BoC may also indicate its willingness to start to loosen monetary policy. The UK government’s budget is delivered on Wednesday with all the usual suspects likely to move including housebuilders, pub companies and the pound. Then US jobs in the week include ADP private payrolls on Wednesday and on Friday the US Department of Labor publishes non-farm payrolls for February. Amongst the bigger corporates to wait on earnings include L&G Reach, Greggs Target and Broadcom.

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With the end of the tax year fast approaching, IG’s Portfolio Manager, Martin Harris, sat down with IGTV’s Angeline Ong to run through the three key changes to ISA’s for 2024 and which IG products are available. 

The most volatile event of the week ahead is likely to be the New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday morning. With the Kiwi dollar at a nine-month low against the Aussie, if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues with its hawkish rhetoric, there’s a possibility of a short AUD/NZD winning on the day. The other event will be the Caixin and NBS PMI data in China which will give a deeper understanding of just how weak the Chinese economy is. Corporate data includes Ocado and Zoom on earnings watch.  

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2023 was a big year for uranium, confirming that we are indeed seeing a nuclear renaissance. There has been a commitment to nuclear energy coming from environmental concerns, with COP28 seeing nuclear energy taking centre stage with 22 countries pledging to triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Big producers are also signalling lower production. One of the world’s largest producers, Kazatomprom, reduced its production guidance by 14% and said it is unlikely to reach its 2025 targets. IGTV caught up with Tom Bailey from HanETF to discuss two ETFs of note.

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