Turning points are hard to call. Well, turning points are not that hard to call... when you are looking back. Retrospect is the most amazing analytical tool. Sadly, it's not a real tool and it is completely useless to us. We live life going forward, as we experience markets one moment at a time.
Turning points are important though, because it is at those points in time, or in the market, that both maximum opportunity and maximum risk is present. Now, there is no shortage of people out there who claim to know exactly when the market will turn, but there is a very limited number of people out there who have actually got a solid track record of getting that right. I am not one of those.
Too many times have I stood on my soapbox and announced that 'this is it'... whatever 'it' was at the time. Trying to learn from my past mistakes, at least, means that I will be a lot more careful before I dig out that wobbly old soapbox in future.
So this time, I don't want to say that the market IS at a turning point, but I want to say that the market MIGHT be at a turning point. In other words, the market is presenting a us with an opportunity to take a small, measured amount of risk for the possibility of a rather handsome reward.
The S&P500 index is currently down around 9.5% for the month (and just slightly more from the all time highs made at the beginning of this month). The chart above indicates a potential support level for the index. The level has held on two previous occasions and there is a rather good chance that it may hold again. If the S&P500 tests that support level today it will be down just over 11% for the month.
Looking at the local Top 40 Index, we can see a similar (sort of) picture. The market is now down around 15% for the year and has come down to test a previous support level. If this support level holds, just as is the case with the S&P500, it would be a great place to put on some long positions on Index Futures.
In both cases, the risk is somewhat contained as a break below the respective support levels would negate the trade and stop you out, but it the support holds and the market moves back into a bull trend, the reward could be tremendous.
That said, there is no guarantee that this recent rout we have seen is not the start of a much larger and longer term market correction or bear market. For now though, we cannot say. So no soapbox preaching from me today. Just the acknowledgement that there is a high probability trading opportunity present.
I will give some detail as to what I believe is driving the market at present in another blog post in the second half of this week. There are many, many things happening that are creating fear in the marketplace. I think that unpacking them will help us piece together an action plan during these trying times.
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