From Canada’s resistance to Iran’s strategy of attrition, the pressure is converging on an American presidency caught between political time, narrowing choices, and a psychological need for victory that may be making the exits harder to reach.
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 9:30 PM PST
Snookered. Let’s start there, because by the end of this analysis, you will understand why this metaphor fits the present American position so precisely.
In snooker or billiards, being snookered means finding yourself without a clean shot because another ball obstructs the route you need to take. You can still see the table. You can see where you need to go, and you may possess every bit of skill, strength and experience required to get there, yet the available angles have become awkward enough that almost every legal move carries a new risk.
That is the important part of the metaphor. Being snookered does not mean that you have run out of power or that the game is over. It means that the available uses of your power have become constrained by the consequences attached to them.
Five months into the Iran war, that distinction captures something important about the position of the United States. America is not short of technology, intelligence, industrial capacity or global influence. It remains an extraordinarily powerful country. What appears to be changing is the strategic environment around it, as several problems that were once treated separately begin to collide.
Canada is pushing back against economic pressure, Iran is trying to turn time itself into strategic leverage, and the American political calendar continues to advance in the background. The harder question for the presidency is therefore no longer simply whether the United States can exert power. It is whether that power can still produce a politically sustainable exit without requiring somebody else to be publicly presented as defeated.
That is where this analysis begins.
You are listening to Incorrigible Myths, an independent public-interest publication examining what happens when power becomes more invested in protecting its image than in confronting reality.
Across Canada, the United States, India, Australia and beyond, this publication looks beneath the immediate spectacle of politics to examine the forces operating underneath it: denial, grievance, projection, identity, coercion, institutional self-preservation, political mythology, and the widening distance between what governments say they control and what events reveal they are actually capable of controlling.
The purpose is not to tell you which country to admire, which political party deserves your loyalty, or which leader deserves your anger. It is to slow the story down, separate rhetoric from evidence, connect developments that are usually reported in isolation, and ask a harder question:
What happens when a powerful country retains enormous material strength, but the political psychology surrounding its leadership steadily narrows the range of outcomes that can be presented, accepted or sustained as legitimate?
Concepts associated with pathological narcissism, including those developed by Professor Sam Vaknin, are used here solely as interpretive frameworks for examining publicly observable political behaviour, incentives and decision-making, rather than as psychiatric diagnosis. The distinction between psychological interpretation and clinical assessment remains essential throughout this analysis.
With that distinction in place, the analysis can now move from psychological framework to strategic reality, beginning with the scale of American power itself and the paradox at the centre of this argument: a country can remain extraordinarily powerful while finding that the number of clean, politically sustainable ways to use that power is becoming more limited.
1. An Extremely Powerful Country Can Still Become Strategically Constrained.
Begin with the larger picture, because the title can easily be misunderstood without it.
The United States remains one of the most capable countries in the world. It possesses extraordinary military reach, the deepest capital markets, immense technological and industrial resources, tremendous energy capacity, and a network of alliances, intelligence relationships, universities, corporations and financial institutions that few other countries can replicate.
This is therefore not an argument that America is collapsing, that Canada has somehow defeated it economically, or that Iran has defeated it militarily. The more difficult argument is that material power and freedom of manoeuvre are not the same thing.
A country can retain overwhelming capacity while finding that its practical choices have become harder to convert into desirable outcomes. Military escalation may increase pressure on an adversary while simultaneously creating new regional and domestic costs. Tariffs may produce leverage in the short term while encouraging the targeted country to reduce the dependence that created that leverage in the first place. A public declaration of victory may strengthen a political narrative today while making tomorrow’s compromise harder to explain.
That is the strategic problem hiding inside the snooker metaphor.
Consider the position tonight.
On August 19, the Trump administration is scheduled to impose additional tariffs of 50 percent on nearly $20 billion worth of Canadian imports. Canada and the United States remain in negotiations, but the dispute has expanded beyond the immediate questions of automobiles, dairy, alcohol, steel and other protected sectors. Increasingly, it raises a larger question about whether agreements themselves remain dependable when the political incentives surrounding them change.
Thousands of kilometres away, Iran is describing an entirely different strategy. Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has spoken publicly about prolonging the war toward the next American presidential term. Whatever one thinks of Naqdi or the regime he represents, the strategic message is difficult to miss: Iran is treating time itself as an element of the contest.
At the same time, Donald Trump has declared that the United States possesses “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, while commercial navigation remains heavily disrupted and the eventual political settlement remains uncertain.
None of those developments establishes American defeat. Taken together, however, they suggest that American material power and presidential freedom of manoeuvre are becoming increasingly distinct concepts.
2. Canada and the Cost of Broken Confidence.
Canada is useful as the first case because this is not a confrontation with an enemy.
The United States is dealing with one of its closest democratic partners, a country whose energy networks, supply chains, infrastructure, industries and consumer markets are deeply integrated with its own. Trade disagreements between the two countries are hardly unusual. Both protect politically sensitive sectors, and both governments are perfectly capable of describing their own restrictions as reasonable while treating the other side’s protections as unacceptable.
What makes the present dispute more consequential is not simply the size of the tariff. It is the accumulating question of credibility.
Donald Trump did not inherit the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement from a political rival. His own administration negotiated it, promoted it as a substantial improvement over NAFTA and celebrated its adoption as evidence of superior deal-making.
That history now places a larger question in front of Canadian governments, businesses and investors:
What is the long-term value of an agreement if today’s signature does not reliably constrain tomorrow’s political decision?
International commerce depends on price, but it also depends on expectation. A company builds a factory because it expects the rules governing that investment to remain sufficiently stable for the capital to be recovered. Supply chains are designed because businesses expect borders, tariffs and regulations to remain predictable enough to manage. Infrastructure is financed because investors believe political risk can be estimated within a reasonable range.
Nobody expects certainty. What markets require is something closer to reliability.
When that reliability deteriorates, another form of cost begins to enter the relationship. It does not appear on a customs invoice or arrive as a government surcharge. It appears in boardrooms, procurement strategies, investment models and contingency planning whenever somebody asks a question that would once have seemed unnecessarily pessimistic:
What happens if they do this again?
That is the trust tariff.
A conventional tariff can be removed through negotiation or executive action. A trust tariff is harder to reverse because it changes the assumptions governments and businesses use when planning for the future.
3. The Reaction Ottawa may not Be Able to Reverse.
This is where Dean Blundell’s August 12 reporting becomes particularly interesting.
According to sources he says were briefed on the negotiations, Canada’s chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, communicated to the American side that Ottawa may not be able to contain the political reaction if the August 19 tariffs proceed.
That specific private exchange has not been independently established through the public reporting reviewed for this analysis, so it should remain clearly identified as sourced reporting rather than confirmed fact.
The underlying proposition, however, deserves serious attention because governments can negotiate tariffs without necessarily being able to negotiate all of the behaviour those tariffs produce.
Ottawa can remove a retaliatory duty, but it cannot order millions of Canadians to resume travelling to the United States. It cannot compel consumers to purchase American products, require provinces to restore procurement relationships they no longer consider attractive, or guarantee that Canadian companies will abandon alternative suppliers after spending significant time and money developing them.
Once retaliation moves from government policy into ordinary behaviour, the capacity of government to reverse it becomes weaker.
Cross-border travel and consumer behaviour have already shown signs of political sensitivity since tensions intensified. The movement has not been perfectly linear, and some indicators have recovered, which is important because Canadian disengagement from the United States is neither universal nor permanent.
Yet that recovery is precisely why another tariff confrontation matters. It could reactivate behaviour that had begun to stabilize and turn what began as a political reaction into a more durable habit.
Habits do not disappear simply because diplomats eventually sign another document.
4. When Economic Pressure acquires Psychological meaning.
Psychology offers a useful concept for understanding this transition: reactance.
Reactance describes the tendency of people to resist when they believe their autonomy is being restricted. Under certain conditions, an attempt to compel behaviour produces the opposite response by making independence itself more psychologically valuable.
International politics is obviously more complex than an experiment involving individual behaviour, but markets are composed of people, and people frequently attach meaning to economic choices.
A tariff may begin as an attempt to extract a concession. If the population on the receiving end comes to experience that pressure as humiliation, disrespect or coercion, however, the dispute can move beyond conventional economics.
* A product is no longer evaluated only by price. It becomes Canadian or American.
* A vacation is no longer merely convenient or affordable. It becomes a decision about where somebody wants to spend money.
* A bottle of bourbon, an automobile, a grocery purchase or a hotel booking can acquire political meaning that has very little to do with the actual price difference.
The emotional progression can therefore move from trade disagreement to resentment, from resentment to dignity, from dignity to sovereignty, and eventually from sovereignty to identity. Once the disagreement reaches that stage, the original tariff has become only one part of the problem.
This creates an important paradox for Washington.
Canada has spent years debating its own interprovincial trade barriers, regulatory fragmentation and inefficient internal movement of goods. Donald Trump did not create those weaknesses, but external American pressure has given Canadian governments a stronger reason to confront them.
If American leverage depends partly on Canadian dependence, then repeatedly demonstrating how politically dangerous that dependence can become may eventually persuade Canadians that reducing American leverage should itself become an economic objective.
The sequence is straightforward: pressure encourages adaptation; adaptation encourages diversification; diversification reduces vulnerability; and reduced vulnerability gradually weakens the leverage that made the original pressure effective.
In that sense, coercion can consume part of its own advantage.
None of this means Canada can simply detach itself from the United States. The two economies remain extraordinarily integrated, and Canada continues to face serious structural problems, including productivity challenges, housing affordability, household debt and substantial dependence on American markets.
The United States, however, is not economically self-contained either. American industries rely heavily on Canadian energy, fertilizer, minerals, electricity, agricultural products and manufacturing inputs.
The relationship is therefore less like two independent houses arguing across the street and more like two families disputing the terms of the household while both still depend on the plumbing, electricity and foundations beneath the same structure.
The useful question is not whether either country can hurt the other. Both plainly can. The question is whether proving leverage eventually becomes more expensive than preserving the relationship from which that leverage originated.
5. Why the Behaviour May Outlive the Tariff.
There is another economic concept worth introducing here: hysteresis.
The terminology sounds more complicated than the idea. Hysteresis simply describes circumstances in which the effects of a temporary shock survive after the original shock disappears.
Suppose a Canadian company spends two years developing a European supplier because American trade policy has become difficult to predict. If the tariff eventually disappears, that company has little reason to immediately abandon the relationship it has spent years building.
The same principle can apply to travel. A Canadian family that discovers Mexico, Europe or domestic destinations during a prolonged political dispute may not automatically return to its previous American travel pattern once diplomatic relations improve.
Businesses can construct new infrastructure, provinces can revise procurement practices, and consumers can form new habits specifically because they no longer want to remain vulnerable to the same disruption.
Those decisions carry memory.
That is why one of the most consequential costs of economic confrontation may never appear on the tariff schedule:
A tariff can disappear overnight; the behaviour it teaches people may survive for years.
This is one way American power can produce consequences that gradually complicate the next use of that power.
The second case is considerably more dangerous because it involves an active war.
6. Nine Minutes in Tehran.
There is no reason to romanticize Mohammad Reza Naqdi.
His history within Iran’s security apparatus, together with the allegations associated with the Basij and the wider record of Iranian repression, should prevent any serious listener from confusing strategic analysis with admiration.
Nor should statements made by a senior Iranian military figure during wartime be treated as neutral information. Naqdi’s PBS interview may contain propaganda, deterrence signalling, exaggeration, psychological warfare and genuine strategic communication at the same time.
The useful question is therefore not whether every assertion he made should be accepted as true.
It is why Iran wants Americans to hear these particular assertions now.
Naqdi characterized the American campaign as “a war without a strategy,” arguing that Washington’s stated objectives had changed over time and referring to goals involving Iran’s leadership, the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island and continuing military pressure.
Whether that characterization is fair requires separate evaluation. What matters here is the strategic target of the message.
Naqdi is not suggesting that the United States lacks military power. His argument is more sophisticated: America possesses extraordinary power, but Iran believes Washington’s objectives are shifting faster than those objectives are being completed.
Then came the statement that deserves even closer attention. Naqdi spoke openly about prolonging the conflict toward the next American presidential term.
That formulation reveals something important about Iranian thinking. Tehran is not considering only aircraft carriers, missiles, sanctions, oil markets or control of the Strait of Hormuz.
It is considering the American political calendar.
7. When Time itself becomes Strategic Leverage.
The strategy Naqdi described does not require Iran to defeat the United States in a conventional military contest.
Instead, Iran can attempt to remain capable of imposing sufficient costs for long enough that the American political system begins imposing constraints of its own.
Under that strategy, endurance becomes more important than conquest. Electoral cycles become relevant alongside weapons inventories, public opinion becomes part of the strategic environment, and political patience matters alongside military capability.
This is particularly significant when the opposing administration has built much of its public identity around speed, dominance and decisive outcomes. If an adversary concludes that the president requires visible victory more urgently than the adversary requires a rapid settlement, that urgency can itself become a source of leverage.
Washington can escalate military pressure, but greater escalation also increases the possibility of regional spillover, economic disruption, additional demands on weapons inventories and unpredictable retaliation. Washington can exercise restraint, which may be strategically prudent, but Iran can frame the same restraint as evidence that American coercion has reached its practical limit.
Negotiation may ultimately produce the most rational outcome available, yet Tehran can still describe its survival and any concessions it obtains as evidence that resistance succeeded. Continuing the war accumulates financial, political and military costs, while withdrawal carries a different kind of reputational and domestic political burden.
The United States therefore continues to possess options, but fewer of those options provide the kind of uncomplicated, publicly legible victory around which the political rhetoric has often been constructed.
That is the second place where the snooker metaphor begins to fit.
8. “Total Control” and the Demands of Observable Reality.
This brings us to Donald Trump’s declaration that the United States has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz.
The significance of the phrase lies less in its dramatic quality than in the standard it creates.
Words such as total leave very little room between political language and observable reality. If control is genuinely total, commercial navigation should eventually normalize, economic disruption should diminish, strategic objectives should become clearer and the adversary’s ability to impose costs should decline.
If those outcomes remain uncertain, a measurable distance begins to emerge between the political description and the external environment.
That distance provides the appropriate entry point into the psychological part of this analysis.
Not because it establishes a diagnosis, but because it raises a question about what happens when political identity becomes heavily invested in a version of reality that events increasingly complicate.
9. The Grandiosity Gap.
Sam Vaknin uses the term grandiosity gap to describe the distance between an expansive internal self-conception and external reality.
Within clinical theory, the concept belongs to discussions of pathological narcissism. Applied cautiously to political behaviour, it provides a useful framework for considering leadership personas built around superiority, exceptionalism and visible dominance.
Donald Trump’s political identity has long emphasized winning, superior negotiation and the ability to force adversaries into outcomes they supposedly would not otherwise accept. That identity is not incidental to his political appeal. It has become one of the central propositions surrounding his leadership.
The difficulty appears when successful diplomacy requires something less dramatic than domination.
Serious negotiation often requires acknowledging that the other side has interests of its own, tolerating ambiguity, accepting delayed gratification, revising earlier positions, sharing credit and leaving an adversary enough dignity to describe the result as something other than capitulation.
Diplomacy frequently succeeds precisely because neither side is forced to crawl away from the table.
For a political identity built around unilateral victory, therefore, the challenge extends beyond whether an agreement can technically be reached. The deeper question is whether the agreement can be politically absorbed if the other side is also able to claim that it gained something.
That becomes especially difficult once overwhelming leverage has already been promised publicly.
10. From Injury to Mortification.
Vaknin makes another distinction that helps clarify the risk. He differentiates ordinary narcissistic injury from what he describes as narcissistic mortification.
An injury challenges grandiosity, while mortification describes a much more destabilizing encounter with humiliation, limitation, exposure or loss of control.
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Once again, this is not a claim that Donald Trump is clinically experiencing narcissistic mortification. No responsible analysis should make that conclusion from public behaviour alone.
The concept matters because it leads to a broader political question:
What happens when a governing system begins behaving as though visible defeat is exceptionally difficult to tolerate?
Mainstream political psychology provides several mechanisms through which this can occur without invoking psychiatric diagnosis.
Loss aversion helps explain why people often experience losses more intensely than comparable gains. Escalation of commitment describes the tendency to continue investing in a failing course partly because abandoning it would require acknowledging that previous investments were mistaken. Prospect theory suggests that decision-makers who perceive themselves to be operating in a domain of losses may become more willing to accept risk in an effort to recover.
Political leaders must also contend with reputation, domestic audiences, prestige and the fear of losing face.
Vaknin’s framework adds a further question: what happens when political prestige becomes unusually intertwined with personal identity?
At that point, the concern is no longer simply about personality. It becomes institutional:
What happens when protecting the national interest begins competing with protecting the leader’s identity as someone who cannot lose?
11. When the Gap Between Narrative and Reality Begins Shaping Policy.
Governments change strategy constantly, and they should. Wars evolve, economies change, intelligence improves and political objectives sometimes have to be revised.
Changing strategy is therefore not, by itself, evidence of dysfunction.
The warning sign appears when the surrounding narrative must repeatedly change in order to preserve the belief that decisive victory remains just beyond the next escalation.
A leader announces overwhelming leverage, but the opponent does not submit. A new threat follows, the opponent adapts, and another objective becomes more prominent while the previous objective quietly recedes. A deadline arrives and passes, another deadline replaces it, and another demonstration of strength becomes necessary because the decisive outcome is still said to remain within reach.
None of this requires deliberate deception. Human beings are remarkably capable of reorganizing uncomfortable information around the preservation of identity, and large institutions can reproduce the same process through incentives, bureaucratic filtering and political communication.
A powerful country can also afford to delay the moment when reality must be fully incorporated because it possesses enough resources to sustain an unsuccessful approach for a considerable period.
That is why citizens should pay close attention whenever public explanations for a conflict continually evolve while victory somehow remains permanently imminent.
The crucial distinction is between strategy adapting to reality and reality being continually redescribed to protect the strategy.
Once the boundary between those processes becomes difficult to see, escalation can begin serving more than a strategic purpose. It can also preserve a political narrative that has become expensive to revise.
12. Canada Can Resist While Iran Can Wait.
Canada and Iran are not morally equivalent actors, and nothing in this comparison should suggest otherwise.
Canada is a democratic ally and one of America’s closest economic partners. Iran is an authoritarian state whose security institutions have been associated with repression, regional destabilization and serious human-rights abuses.
The comparison concerns strategy, not morality.
Canada is demonstrating that economic pressure can generate resistance and encourage efforts to reduce future vulnerability. Iran, through Naqdi’s public messaging, is signalling that it believes patience itself can generate leverage.
The methods could hardly be more different, yet they press against the same political vulnerability: the requirement for visible victory.
Canada does not need to overpower the United States economically. It needs only to make coercion costly enough that diversification and resistance become rational.
Iran does not need to defeat the United States militarily under the strategy Naqdi described. It needs to remain capable of imposing costs long enough for political patience, public opinion and the electoral calendar to begin influencing American choices.
Meanwhile, markets react, consumers change habits, businesses diversify, allies hedge and adversaries learn from the way Washington responds.
Over time, different governments may begin reaching a similar conclusion:
If the president requires an unmistakable victory more urgently than everyone else requires immediate resolution, the requirement for victory can itself become leverage.
That is where the strategic trap and the psychological one begin to overlap.
13. The Escalation Risk Is Larger Than One Personality.
Public discussion of narcissism often reduces the subject to vanity, attention-seeking or excessive self-regard. That misses the more consequential part of the framework.
The deeper concern is what happens when preserving a grandiose narrative becomes more important than preserving the shared environment surrounding it.
In a personal relationship, that environment might be a marriage or family. Inside a corporation, it might be the organization. In politics, the shared environment can include alliances, institutions, economic relationships and wars whose consequences extend far beyond the person making the decisions.
It would be irresponsible to claim that a narcissistic leader inevitably attempts to “take everyone down” when threatened. Psychology does not provide that kind of deterministic certainty.
The more defensible proposition is also the more useful one:
When accepting loss threatens identity, escalation can become easier to rationalize than accommodation, even when escalation imposes additional costs on the wider system.
Failure may then be attributed to sabotage rather than strategy. Compromise may be described as betrayal. An opponent’s refusal to submit can become evidence that more pressure is required, while an escalation that fails to produce the promised result can be interpreted not as a reason to reconsider the approach but as proof that the escalation was insufficient.
Another round of pressure may temporarily restore the appearance of control, yet that pressure creates new consequences that widen the distance between expectation and reality.
A self-reinforcing cycle can then emerge in which a problem produces escalation, escalation briefly restores narrative control, the new policy creates additional consequences, and those consequences generate pressure for still another escalation.
The important point is not that this sequence is inevitable.
It is that modern governments contain institutions, political movements, media environments and bureaucratic incentives capable of reinforcing it once the preservation of victory becomes more important than an honest reassessment of the original objective.
This is why the article is ultimately about more than Donald Trump.
A president does not act alone. Military institutions, advisers, Congress, markets, alliances, bureaucracies, media ecosystems and electoral incentives all shape the environment surrounding presidential decisions.
The larger danger appears when those institutions begin organizing themselves around the political requirement that events must continue to resemble victory.
14. Why the Pressure May Intensify Before It Eases.
I have spent considerable time since 2023 studying pathological narcissism, psychological defences and the ways unresolved emotional structures can influence relationships, institutions and leadership, particularly through the work of Professor Sam Vaknin and related psychological research.
That study does not allow me to predict catastrophe, and this analysis is not intended to convince listeners that deterioration is inevitable.
What it does make me attentive to are situations in which the incentives for escalation are easier to identify than the mechanisms for resolution.
If the Canadian negotiations collapse, tariffs, retaliation, consumer resistance and economic diversification may intensify. If the negotiations succeed, some diversification may continue anyway because the trust problem does not disappear at the signing ceremony.
If the Iran conflict remains unresolved, the financial, military and political costs continue accumulating. If Washington escalates, the possibility of wider regional consequences increases. If Washington negotiates, the administration must explain compromise to a political audience accustomed to the language of domination without allowing the settlement to be interpreted as humiliation.
As the American political calendar advances, the incentive to demonstrate visible external achievement may become stronger rather than weaker.
None of those pathways guarantees disaster, but none provides the effortless victory around which much of the political rhetoric has been constructed.
That is why this moment deserves more attention than another cycle of headlines.
15. The Real Test is Maturity, Not Dominance.
Leadership maturity is often confused with politeness, calmness or decorum. Those qualities may matter, but the deeper form of maturity is the capacity to encounter limits without experiencing those limits as annihilation.
It means revising an assumption without interpreting revision as humiliation, absorbing information that contradicts expectations without immediately searching for someone to blame, and distinguishing between what injures a leader politically and what harms the country strategically.
Most importantly, mature negotiation requires the capacity to accept an outcome in which the national interest improves even though the leader cannot claim that everyone else lost.
That is considerably more difficult than domination.
Successful diplomacy frequently requires ambiguity, patience, sequencing and partial concessions. It requires understanding that the government on the other side of the table must also return home with an explanation that preserves enough dignity and political legitimacy to keep the agreement alive.
The most durable settlements are rarely those in which one side has been publicly humiliated beyond recovery. Often the opposite is true because compliance becomes easier when both parties retain a political reason to continue participating after the cameras leave.
Grandiosity prefers categories such as winner or loser, strong or weak, loyalty or betrayal, victory or humiliation.
Diplomacy operates in the more complicated territory between those binaries.
That is the point at which emotional regulation stops being merely a personal virtue and becomes an instrument of national security.
16. The Missing Off-Ramp.
If escalation is the risk, the responsible question is what a credible exit would actually require.
The alternative to escalation is not weakness. It is architecture.
Diplomacy has developed mechanisms precisely for situations in which direct retreat becomes politically difficult: face-saving arrangements, phased implementation, reciprocal concessions, strategic ambiguity, private commitments, sequencing, third-party mediation and agreements structured so that different constituencies can legitimately emphasize different gains.
These settlements rarely provide the emotional satisfaction of complete domination. That is often one reason they survive.
For Canada and the United States, a durable solution would require more than temporarily removing another round of tariffs. It would require rebuilding confidence that future sectoral disputes can be handled without repeatedly placing the architecture of continental trade itself under threat.
For Iran and the United States, the problem is vastly more dangerous, but the principle remains recognizable. Any durable arrangement involving Hormuz, sanctions, maritime navigation and military activity would almost certainly require some degree of sequencing and face-saving that allows neither side to present the outcome domestically as unconditional surrender.
The purpose of diplomacy is not emotional gratification.
It is to prevent political pride from creating consequences that ordinary people may spend years, and sometimes generations, repairing.
17. Snookered is not Checkmate.
Return now to the table where we began.
Canada is discovering that American economic pressure can itself become an argument for reducing Canadian dependence on the United States. Iran is publicly describing the American political calendar as something it believes can be exploited. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted while Washington speaks in the language of total control, weapons can be replenished but not instantly, and political patience can be extended but never indefinitely.
At the same time, markets, allies, adversaries and ordinary citizens are watching, and more importantly, they are learning.
Every threat teaches something about what Washington values. Every deadline teaches something about how long it is prepared to wait. Every agreement teaches something about American reliability, while every agreement subsequently reopened teaches something different. Every insistence that an uncertain outcome represents overwhelming victory also tells other governments how politically important the appearance of victory has become.
The United States still possesses extraordinary power and multiple paths forward, which is why snookered must never be confused with checkmate.
The difficulty is that the cleanest exits may now demand something more sophisticated than another tariff, missile, ultimatum or declaration of dominance. They may require the acceptance of limits without interpreting those limits as humiliation, and the acceptance of a negotiated settlement without requiring another country to appear publicly defeated.
That is not weakness. It is a form of strategic maturity.
Perhaps the decisive test of American power will therefore not be whether the United States can compel every ally, adversary and trading partner to acknowledge its superiority. Perhaps the more consequential test will be whether a powerful republic can prevent the psychology of dominance from determining how much risk its citizens, its institutions and the wider world are expected to absorb.
The most dangerous opponent is not always the opponent powerful enough to defeat you outright. Sometimes it is the opponent patient enough to recognize which outcomes your own political system has made exceptionally difficult to accept.
America still has the cue, the resources and the capacity to alter the table.
The question is whether it chooses the shot that best protects the country, or the one that best preserves the appearance of omnipotence.
That distinction may become one of the most consequential tests of American leadership in the months ahead.
The views expressed in this analysis are those of the author and reflect an independent interpretation of publicly available reporting, political behaviour, international developments and psychological frameworks. References to concepts associated with pathological narcissism, including the work of Professor Sam Vaknin, are used solely as interpretive tools and should not be understood as a clinical diagnosis of Donald Trump or any other individual. Likewise, examining the strategic calculations of Canada, Iran or the United States does not constitute endorsement of any government, political actor, military institution or policy discussed. Where reporting remains disputed, anonymously sourced or independently unverified, it is identified accordingly. The purpose of Incorrigible Myths is to distinguish evidence from rhetoric, examine the incentives and psychological dynamics surrounding power, and encourage readers and listeners to evaluate the underlying patterns for themselves.
No book recommendation today. Instead, I want to leave you with something simpler, and perhaps more consequential than anything a reading list could offer: a reminder that the purpose of power is not merely to demonstrate that it exists.
Ulysses S. Grant understood military power better than most American presidents. He had commanded Union armies through the Civil War, witnessed what prolonged conflict did to soldiers and civilians, and then entered national politics while the country was still trying to rebuild itself.
Yet the message associated with his rise to the presidency was remarkably simple:
“Let us have peace.”Ulysses S. Grant, 1868
There is something worth preserving in that simplicity. Power can win battles, impose costs and force an opponent to reconsider its position, but statecraft cannot become an endless exercise in proving that power exists. At some point, leadership has to decide what all that power is ultimately meant to protect.
For the United States today, that may be the more consequential question. Not whether it can escalate again, impose another tariff, issue another ultimatum or demonstrate its strength one more time, but whether it can convert that strength into an outcome that remains politically, economically and strategically worth living with once the confrontation is over.
Winning the next move matters far less if, in making it, you leave yourself with a worse table.
Thank you for giving this work something increasingly valuable: your time, curiosity, and sustained attention.
Whistleblower, ™Incorrigible MythsAn independent public-interest publicationVancouver, Canada
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