The Conference Board started the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in 1967. In February 2009, at the nadir of the financial crisis, the Index reached an all-time low of 25.3 points (1985=100). Over the next decade, an arduous recovery littered with false starts and temporary reversals slowly took root to produce a historic expansion. By October 2018, consumer confidence had climbed to 137.9—just points away from the all-time high reached in 2000.   

Since then, however, things have become murkier and more volatile. After a 7.3-point drop in March 2019, consumer confidence now stands at 124.1. Consumers’ appraisal of the present situation has taken an especially big hit. Is this an expected moderation or an early warning of impeding recession?

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators and surveys, examines the evidence.

Indications 2.7 Reading List

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®

Around the world, business leaders are growing increasingly nervous about 2019 growth prospects. Are consumers following suit? Ultimately, the answer will come down to job availability, income growth incomes, and the purchasing power of their hard-earned money.

Chief Economist Bart van Ark leads a team of experts on a world tour of consumer confidence—and comes away largely reassured. 

Indications 2.6

• Window on the Global Consumer (webcast)
• Global Consumer Confidence Index (preview)

With the US midterms over and 2019 approaching, we explore what divided government in Washington portends for global business and a still-booming American economy. What overall message—if any—did voters, workers, and consumers send by delivering a Democratic "blue wave" in the House and many local races, while strengthening Republicans' tenuous hold on the Senate?

Will President Trump be forced to recalibrate his high-stakes trade policies? Could a bipartisan infrastructure deal really be on track for 2019? And what are the real risks—and unseen opportunity costs—of the intense partisan tribalism seen in the run-up to the election, and hardly abated since? 

Senior Economist Brian Schaitkin reviews the questions answered November 6—and the new ones raised—with help from our expert panel.

Indications 2.3 reading list

• Window on the US Midterm Elections (webcast)

Oil broke $70 a barrel for the first time in four years in January and hasn't receded since. Most experts predict it'll remain between $70 and $85 in the near term. But any sense of stability or consensus is deceiving. A witches' brew of volatile, complicated, and often countervailing global forces has been the real story of oil prices in 2018—and likely the only safe bet for 2019 as well.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Director and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board, breaks down the factors at play with the help of an expert panel. Will a "long, soft fall" of Chinese growth temper global demand? Can US shale overcome refining and distribution bottlenecks to reach more ultimate consumers—at lower prices? And how are oil watchers gaming out the extraordinary constellation of questions swirling around Iran, Venezuela, and now Saudi Arabia?   

Indications 2.2 reading list

• Window on Oil Prices (webcast)
• Bethany McLean: "The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground" (NYT) 
• Sustainability Practices: 2018 Edition
• Trade and Global Value Chains (2018)
• Energy and Global Growth (2015)
• The Long, Soft Fall of Chinese Growth (2014)

Welcome to Season 2 of Indications. In this premiere episode, Bart van Ark, Chief Economist of The Conference Board, breaks down the mysteries of productivity in the 2010s: Above all, why has productivity growth slowed to a crawl—down to 1.4% in 2015 and 2016—in the face of accelerating advances in mobile, automation, big data, and the cloud? 

With the help of experts from the OECD and the McKinsey Global Institute, Bart dives into the latest data—and past technological transformations—to uncover a surprising answer: While economists and policymakers keep racking their brains to crack the past decade's "productivity paradox", a return to an era of faster productivity growth may already be happening, right before our eyes.

At a time of rising global competition, aging work forces, and stagnant productivity, everyone agrees on the key to staying ahead: Innovation. Each year, more CEOs sell tech-driven efficiencies to their shareholders, more marketers pitch their products as revolutionary to consumers, and more journalists and consultants produce lists of the world's most innovative companies.

The problem? There's no accepted standard for measuring—or even defining—innovation, and "I know it when I see it" no longer cuts it as substitute. On this episode of Indications, economists Ataman Ozyildirim and Janet Hao introduce Future of Innovation, a year-long project they've embarked on with the input of top executives and practitioners. The goal is a flexible framework of signposts that will help companies across industries define innovation for themselves and accurately track their progress over time and against the competition.

Reading List:

• The Conference Board Future of Innovation (project portal)
• Signposts of Innovation: Toward Better Innovation Metrics for Business—A Primer (member report)
• The Conference Board Innovation Leadership Council
• "The Most Innovative Companies of 2017" (Fast Company)
• "The World's Most Innovative Companies" (Forbes)
  
  

MEMBERS: Want the complete story on innovation and other critical business topics? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.

American consumers are feeling as upbeat about the state of the economy and their own job prospects as they have at any time since the Great Recession. Will this increased confidence translate into freer spending habits over the next year? Further afield, how are those habits being transformed by the aging of the U.S. population?

On this episode of Indications, Gad Levanon, Chief Economist for North America and Lynn Franco, Director of Indicators and Surveys, discuss the short- and long-term factors driving purchasing behavior.

They break down the post-election bounce in our Consumer Confidence Index, then turn to the question posed by our latest demographic research: What industries other than health care will be boosted by a growing 65+ population? Where will new retirement destinations take root? And how do economics account for changing demographics and differences in generational tastes when forecasting future demand for iPhones?

Reading List:

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (released last Tuesday each month)
• The Impact of Demographic Trends on Consumer Spending by Gad Levanon, Brian Anderson, Ben Cheng, and Frank Steemers (member report)
• "Locating the Next Myrtle Beach: Retirement Destinations and Workforce Planning" by Gad Levanon (blog)

On this episode, two experts from The Conference Board attack one of the central paradoxes of today’s global economy: Why has accelerating digital innovation yet to put economic growth in high gear? Chief Economist Bart van Ark looks to history; since the original Industrial Revolution, all new technologies have taken decades to be fully harnessed by businesses. Do mobile, always-on broadband, and the cloud simply need more time to pay off?  Doug Chia, Executive Director of the Governance Center, presents a more troubling possibility: that American business leaders in the 21st century face a set of short-term incentives that is dragging out and actively impeding the usual deployment timeline.

Indeed, CEOs may see the tantalizing promise of new technologies—and why investing heavily now in areas like artificial intelligence, big data, and green tech could bolster their organizations for decades to come. But they also face a host of more immediate contenders for their attention, including quarterly earnings targets, activist hedge funds, and high-frequency trading—all with the potential to drive them off-course in managing long-term but ultimately winning investments. Are structural factors embedded in American capitalism undermining the innovation necessary for its survival?

Reading List

• Navigating the New Digital Economy: Driving Digital Growth and Productivity from Installation to Deployment (Member Report)
• Is Short-Term Behavior Jeopardizing the Future Prosperity of Business (Member Report)
• “Corporate Short-Termism is a Frustratingly Slippery Idea” (The Economist, February 16, 2017)
• Kraft Heinz Withdraws $143 Billion Offer to Merge With Unilever (New York Times, February 19, 2017)

MEMBERS: Want the complete story from The Conference Board Sustainability Center? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.

Aside from the day-to-day controversies, what have business leaders, policymakers, and thought leaders around the world been watching out for in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency? In this special event recorded for member companies of The Conference Board shortly after Inauguration Day, we offer an insider’s view of how decisions being today made in Washington will affect global planning, prosperity, and politics.

Chief Economist Bart Van Ark leads a panel of experts with perspectives from Washington, the rest of the U.S., China, and Europe in a wide-ranging discussion that touches on the implications for global growth, investment, employment, and trade. They offer a sober analysis of President Trump’s agenda for business and the economy, and review potential policy responses in the rest of the world.

Election results around the world in 2016 showed that the expansion of global trade in recent decades—till recently accepted as an unalloyed good—has also sparked a shocking growth in economic discontent. As Donald Trump begins his term, businesses are grappling with the potential changes to U.S. trade policy and potential disruptions to their supply chains.

Senior European Economist Ilaria Maselli, China Center Associate Director Ethan Cramer-Flood, and U.S. Senior Economist Brian Schaitkin examine how globalization has left some workers feeling neglected and whether a reversal of these trends would help them. Then they dive into the personalities and policies of the new administration and how businesses and governments in Europe and China may react. 

Indications 5 Reading List

• The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017
  Podcast listeners have exclusive access to regional reports:
  U.S. | Europe | Asia 
• Webcast with Richard Baldwin, author of The Great Convergence
  (Peterson Institute)
• Europe 2.0: Four Scenarios for Post-Brexit Europe by Ilaria Maselli and Wim Overmeer (Member report)
• China Center Quick Note: The US election-an unexpected de-stabilizer by Ethan Cramer-Flood (Member report)

MEMBERS: Want the complete story from our Global Outlook and beyond? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.