Macro Pulse

Inflation at the Crossroads


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The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:

 

  • GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception
  • Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target
  • The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs
  • Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline
  • Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock
  • China's quiet trade normalisation with the US
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    The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.

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    Macro PulseBy Haver Analytics