Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.

In our charts this week:

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.

In our charts this week:

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:

The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine:

Together, these charts highlight a world economy that remains surprisingly resilient, while raising important questions about the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and global investment trends.

Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week:

• Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices

The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment and infrastructure boom on the other.

Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided:

• US inflation surprises re-emerging

The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed supply-side inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment boom on the other.

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:

• Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices

• US bank lending standards – in neutral for now

• Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK

The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:

The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.

Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality:

• The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel

Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy:

• Global growth and inflation surprises