Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:

The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.

Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality:

• The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel

Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy:

• Global growth and inflation surprises

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on:

• The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience

A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more supply-driven, and harder to manage.

The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions is already reverberating through global markets — pushing energy prices higher, exposing the world economy’s deep reliance on fossil fuels, and prompting a rethink of how far and how fast central banks can ease.

In this week’s charts, we unpack the macro implications through:

Still early days — but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

Financial markets have clearly rattled by the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past few days, with oil prices see-sawing, risk assets wobbling and investors reassessing the potential macroeconomic fallout from a potential energy shock. Yet, while it is still very early days, this week’s charts suggest that the global economic outlook has so far remained relatively resilient.

In this week’s Charts of the Week, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, from the flare up of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These include:

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks. In our charts this week we focus on:

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include:

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data.