Macro Pulse

Tension Beneath the Surface


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Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:

 

  • Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer”
  • Real-time US recession risks — contained
  • A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe)
  • Tighter credit conditions in the euro area
  • An intensifying semiconductor price boom
  • And AI beginning to reshape labour markets
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    The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.

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    Macro PulseBy Haver Analytics