Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality:

• The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel