Macro Pulse

The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper question of who is now willing to fund America's debt. This week's six charts:

🔹 Global GDP held near its long-run pace in Q2

🔹 August flash PMIs confirm it — helped by industry

🔹 South Korea's chip exports go near-vertical

🔹 The yield climb is being led by the real component

🔹 The world funds a shrinking share of US debt

🔹 Surplus nations turn to gold

In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research.

Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts set out what they are.

In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop with a ceiling, what separates a chat window from a genuine macro research system (persistence, context engineering, and a trusted data source), how MCP lets models pull Haver data directly, and where human judgment still matters most. Daniel also previews his hands-on workshop, where participants build a working AI research system inside Claude in a single day.

The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week's publication we look at why the world economy is proving so resilient, and at the rising cost — in both capital and resources — of the investment boom now under way:

Freight markets can offer a timely window into global trade, demand and economic activity—but their signals are often overlooked. Nadia Mirza of the Baltic Exchange joins Haver Analytics Senior Economist Andy Cates to discuss the Baltic’s role in global freight markets, the data and benchmarks it produces, and the new BALTIC database available through Haver Analytics.

Global growth continues to hold up well, but this week's data flag a few fresh risks on the inflation and geopolitical front. In our charts this week:

Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.

Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.

In our charts this week:

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.

In our charts this week: