Macro Pulse

Financial markets have clearly rattled by the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past few days, with oil prices see-sawing, risk assets wobbling and investors reassessing the potential macroeconomic fallout from a potential energy shock. Yet, while it is still very early days, this week’s charts suggest that the global economic outlook has so far remained relatively resilient.

In this week’s Charts of the Week, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, from the flare up of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These include:

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks. In our charts this week we focus on:

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include:

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data. 

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on:

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on:

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include:

This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2026. The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern: