Macro Pulse

Macro Pulse

By Haver AnalyticsBusiness
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Macro Pulse episodes

  • Diverging Paths, Converging Risks

    Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. In our charts this week we home in on:

     

    • The global policy rate consensus
    • The US labour market
    • Euro area inflation 
    • Real rates in Japan
    • UK government debt 
    • South Korea's semiconductor trade
      • 4 min
    • The Year Ahead
      As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows. 
       
      Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes that set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change.
      13 min
    • The Year in Review

      The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from US trade policies and elevated geopolitical risks— the world economy has held up better than many feared. In our charts this week we review:

      • Global data surprises and market volatility
      • Monetary policy calibration and inflation
      • The stance of fiscal policy
      • AI investment and productivity growth
      • US/China trade flows
      • Uncertainty and geopolitical risk
        • 12 min
      • Optimism with caveats

        Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on:

        • The Fed and interest rate expectations
        • The global business cycle
        • Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
        • Euro area credit conditions
        • UK manufacturing
        • Shipping costs and traded goods prices
          • 14 min
        • Risks and Relief

          Financial markets have been pulled between opposing forces in recent days. Risk sentiment has been hit by concerns over US lenders, credit conditions, tariffs, the government shutdown, and a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). Offsetting this, easing growth and inflation have strengthened expectations of further central bank rate cuts, lifting soft-landing hopes. In our charts this week we drill into:

           

          • US equity market valuations
          • Non-US equity markets and data surprises
          • Oil prices and monetary policy
          • China's credit growth
          • US wage pressures
          • UK inflation
            • 14 min
          • Momentum With Caveats
            Global financial markets are entering mid-October with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by a mix of better macro data and easing geopolitical risk. In our charts this week we drill into:
             
            • The global growth consensus
            • US investment in data centres
            • Views on AI and productivity
            • Geopolitical risks and oil prices
            • China's trade patterns
            • The UK labour market 
              10 min
            • Shutdowns and Shake-Ups

              Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture. In the meantime, political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise. In our charts this week we drill into:

              • The US labour market
              • Global productivity trends
              • Electricity prices
              • Natural capital versus produced capital
              • Japan's politics
              • Vietnam's economy 
                • 12 min
              • Signals, Surprises and Shifts

                Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on:

                • Policy rate expectations
                • Growth and inflation surprises
                • US business formation
                • US productivity trends and AI
                • Semiconductor trade
                • Defence spending 
                  • 13 min
                • Resilient Activity, Noisy Policy

                  Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. In our charts this week we focus on:

                  • Global growth momentum
                  • European bond markets
                  • South Korean trade
                  • Global labour market activity
                  • UK financial balances
                  • Equity markets and uncertainty 

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                    11 min

                  About Macro Pulse

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                  Haver Analytics is the premier provider of global economic and financial data, delivering timely and accurate time series data to a wide range of clients, including central banks, government agencies, financial institutions, and academic institutions. Founded in 1969, Haver is a privately held company headquartered in New York City with offices around the world.