Macro Pulse

Financial markets have experienced considerable gyrations in recent weeks, reflecting substantial shifts in investor expectations and heightened uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, consensus growth forecasts have seen notable downward revisions across most major economies over the past 6 months. In our charts this week we home in on:

Recent weeks have seen a complex recalibration in global financial markets, as investors weigh the implications of renewed US tariff actions against accumulating signs of economic softness and growing confidence in the prospect of central bank easing. In our charts this week we home in on:

Financial markets have entered a more unsettled phase, with long-term yields, until very recently, rising notably across the US, Europe, and Japan. While inflation persistence and increased government borrowing have played a role, the moves also reflect broader concerns about global policy credibility and capital market dynamics. In our charts this week we focus on:

Despite escalating global economic uncertainty—driven in large part by US tariff policies—equity markets have, until recently, continued to surge, seemingly shrugging off risks that would typically provoke caution. This disconnect has grown more conspicuous in the wake of last week’s downgrade by Moody’s of the US sovereign debt outlook, which underscored mounting concerns over fiscal sustainability. In our charts this week we focus on:

Financial market sentiment has improved notably in recent days, buoyed by an unexpected pause in the US-China tariff war and the May 12 announcement of significantly reduced bilateral tariff rates. This détente has eased investor fears of a deepening global trade shock and sparked a rebound in risk appetite. Our charts this week focus on:

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. In our charts this week we focus on:

Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:

US policy decisions have continued to generate volatility in financial markets, reflecting mounting investor unease about the global economic outlook. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2025 have certainly been revised down significantly, while inflation expectations—particularly in the US—have moved higher. In our charts this week we focus on:

The global economy received a brief reprieve on April 9th, as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. However, intensifying US-China trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over the economic outlook. In our charts this week we focus on:

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. This was dramatically amplified on April 2nd, when the administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were more expansive in both scope and scale than markets had anticipated, and they carry the potential for significant global economic disruption—particularly if targeted trading partners respond with retaliatory countermeasures, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade conflict.

In our charts this week we focus on:

·       US trade policy uncertainty

·       US data surprises and stagflation risks

·       The policy rate consensus

·       Europe’s labour market

·       China’s economy

·       Global trade fragility