Yesterday’s -2.3% sell-off in the Nasdaq 100 was a 2 standard deviation move triggered by disappointing earnings and rising bond yields amid very crowded positioning.

There are no signs yet of bearish momentum divergence for the S&P 500, so a period of consolidation is or initial expectation.

Expected July rate hikes are now widely thought to be the last.

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The macro narrative continues to shift toward a soft landing after yesterday’s Empire Fed manufacturing index came in better than expected with big declines in prices paid and prices received.

Reaching overbought status increases the likelihood for a momentum unwind.

Focus has already shifted from disinflation to Q2 earnings season.

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Central banks may be underestimating the potential pace of global disinflation.

The below-consensus outcome of 3% should make an almost certain July Fed rate hike the last of the cycle.

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We present our probabilities for tomorrow's June CPI report, which is an important catalyst for markets.

Friday's softer non-farm payroll number was the first miss after 14 consecutive months of hotter-than-expected readings.