The ongoing preference for mega-cap stocks is a defensive dynamic that often occurs late in a cycle. Apple and Microsoft are no longer stocks in an index, they're a destination.

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Our 10-year yield objective of 3.2% looks achievable in the near term as the market awaits an updated debt ceiling ex-date from the Treasury.

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The S&P 500 is in technical short-term overbought territory and looks fundamentally overbought relative to current terminal rate expectations.

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Takeaways from the earliest Q1 reports reveal strength in high-income consumer spending and travel demand, but softening demand among middle-income consumers.

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Signs of easing banking sector stress have resulted in a return of the soft-landing narrative, higher bond yields and more hawkish Fed rhetoric.

The recent backup in bond yields looks like normal consolidation in a developing bullish trend.

Strong technical resistance in the mid-4100s continues to cap the S&P 500 until there's a change in macro-fundamentals.

Current economic conditions suggest that any near-term recession would be relatively mild.

Fed officials continue to endorse a hike and hold policy into year-end, while markets remain priced for nearly 50bp of rate cuts.

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