Inside Markets

The recency of the financial crisis and the systemic issues that followed generates questions about it reoccurring today.

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A macro backdrop that includes a potential recession has the Fed issuing stricter stress test rules, which means higher loan loss provisions, fewer loans, and lower earnings. 

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Macro fundamentals remain challenging for equity markets after a year-long yield curve inversion and policy rate that’s 2x higher than neutral.

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Longer-dated bond yields have limited room to lift from current levels given hawkish rate expectations and the potential for a more benign February Jobs Report this Friday.

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Market internals over the last three sessions suggest the peak inflation narrative has returned ahead of Friday's Jobs Report and next Tuesday's CPI print.

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The S&P 500 staged a rebound from short-term oversold levels just above its 200-day moving average.

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If higher rates are going to create a problem for the economy and equity markets, it would first show up in credit markets.

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Ten year real yields are now at the upper-end of technical resistance as the SPX reaches short-term over sold levels.

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U.S. equities remain relatively resilient despite higher short-dated bond yields.

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A higher median dot coming out of the March 22 Fed meeting is the most apparent near-term risk for equity markets, and technical indicators continue to offer little near term direction. 

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