The phone that was ten years too early
In 2014, BlackBerry built a phone with a square screen, a physical keyboard, and the exact footprint of a travel passport. Reviewers called it a brick. It died on the shelf.
In 2026, Apple and Samsung are selling the same shape as the future of productivity — and everyone is calling it brilliant.
Same idea. Same dimensions. Same logic. Ten years apart.
This week on Insight: Automotive & Beyond, Lynn and I use that gap to unpack one of the most expensive traps in business — and in careers: being right too early.
WHAT WE COVER
1. BlackBerry Passport (2014) — right product, wrong decade
A 4.5-inch square display that fit 60 characters per line, built for reading PDFs and financial models rather than short videos. The logic was sound. The supporting hardware simply didn’t exist yet — flexible glass and ultra-thin hinges still had to be invented. It didn’t lose on logic. It lost because the era wasn’t ready.
2. Aiways (爱驰汽车) — right strategy, fatal timing
Long before “going global” became every Chinese automaker’s obvious playbook, Aiways bet on Europe first: EU whole-vehicle type approval, launches in Germany, France, and Switzerland. Looking back, the direction was exactly right. They ran out of money before the tide turned — crushed by factory capex, supply chain build-out, international compliance, and the enormous cost of educating early European consumers about Chinese EVs.
3. What it means for you
If you’re a strong performer stuck in a declining industry, under flawed leadership, or in a role being automated away — the failure of the vessel does not define the skill of the sailor. But “it’s not you, it’s the world” is cheap comfort. The better move is accurate attribution: sort what you can control from what you can’t.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 — The new foldables, and a strange sense of déjà vu
02:07 — BlackBerry Passport: the right idea, ten years early
03:30 — Why capital-intensive industries punish earliness even harder
04:00 — Aiways: a strategy validated by everyone except the clock
05:50 — The failure of the vessel does not define the skill of the sailor
06:40 — What you can actually control: four things
07:05 — Half a step ahead makes you a visionary; three steps ahead makes you a casualty
08:20 — Surviving until the wind comes is a capability in itself
THE TAKEAWAY
Being early isn’t a strategy. Being survivable early is.
Protect your cash flow. Keep your skills fresh. Stay patient. If your direction is right, the moment when your “passport form factor” finally gets recognized will come.
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