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Insurance Against Zero: Bonds, Geopolitics & the New Recession Play
Today's episode unpacks the confusing signals across energy, central banks, and tech earnings. We examine how markets are increasingly pricing in worst-case geopolitical scenarios—and why high-quality bonds are becoming an unlikely haven in a world bracing for disruption, not inflation. Topic timings: 0:00 - Introduction, 1:00 - Geopolitical Flashpoints & Oil Markets, 8:28 - The Fragile State of Global Diplomacy, 15:03 - Central Bank Tightropes & Persistent Inflation, 18:22 - Tech Earnings & the AI Revolution, 21:00 - The Shifting Global Economic Landscape, 23:00 - Conclusion
Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com
0:00 - Introduction
1:03 - Geopolitical Flashpoints & Oil Markets
8:09 - The Fragile State of Global Diplomacy
14:45 - Central Bank Tightropes & Persistent Inflation
18:03 - Tech Earnings & the AI Revolution
21:36 - The Shifting Global Economic Landscape
24:52 - Conclusion
Referenced sources:
EM Fixed Income Will EM markets keep trading Iran conflict de-escalation (At Any Rate)
DOJ Opens Probe Into NFL's Sports TV Deals (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 10th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
CPI in Focus as US-Iran Peace Talks Near (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Macro Matters Fed Past & Future with BNY's Reinhart (FICC Focus)
Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom Weekly Roundup (Forward Guidance)
The ceasefire, Africa and Senior Companies and Markets Show (Investors' Chronicle)
Ep. 353 Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security (Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez)
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis (Macro Voices)
Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty, Democratic Wins, and Musk vs. Altman (Pivot)
The Ceasefire Won't Save The Economy - ft. Mark Zandi (Prof G Markets)
Key Players Pivot to Robots, AI Agents Proliferate Trading the Markets With AI (Real Vision: Finance & Investing)
A shaky ceasefire (Swamp Notes)
The Civilization Trump Destroys May Be Our Own (The Ezra Klein Show)
Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump's War (The Ezra Klein Show)
In Iran, an Uneasy Calm Amid a Cease-Fire (The Journal.)
Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis (The Macro Trading Floor)
Big Tech Opportunity (The Markets)
Software Winners & Losers in the Age of AI (wAlex Rubalcava & Paul Bricault) #626 (The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing)
U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution (Thoughts on the Market)
Across the Pond A new normal after the ceasefire (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Affording a war' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
What has changed (Unhedged)
This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.
View all episodes
By Personalised IntelligenceToday's episode unpacks the confusing signals across energy, central banks, and tech earnings. We examine how markets are increasingly pricing in worst-case geopolitical scenarios—and why high-quality bonds are becoming an unlikely haven in a world bracing for disruption, not inflation. Topic timings: 0:00 - Introduction, 1:00 - Geopolitical Flashpoints & Oil Markets, 8:28 - The Fragile State of Global Diplomacy, 15:03 - Central Bank Tightropes & Persistent Inflation, 18:22 - Tech Earnings & the AI Revolution, 21:00 - The Shifting Global Economic Landscape, 23:00 - Conclusion
Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com
0:00 - Introduction
1:03 - Geopolitical Flashpoints & Oil Markets
8:09 - The Fragile State of Global Diplomacy
14:45 - Central Bank Tightropes & Persistent Inflation
18:03 - Tech Earnings & the AI Revolution
21:36 - The Shifting Global Economic Landscape
24:52 - Conclusion
Referenced sources:
EM Fixed Income Will EM markets keep trading Iran conflict de-escalation (At Any Rate)
DOJ Opens Probe Into NFL's Sports TV Deals (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 10th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
CPI in Focus as US-Iran Peace Talks Near (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Macro Matters Fed Past & Future with BNY's Reinhart (FICC Focus)
Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom Weekly Roundup (Forward Guidance)
The ceasefire, Africa and Senior Companies and Markets Show (Investors' Chronicle)
Ep. 353 Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security (Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez)
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis (Macro Voices)
Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty, Democratic Wins, and Musk vs. Altman (Pivot)
The Ceasefire Won't Save The Economy - ft. Mark Zandi (Prof G Markets)
Key Players Pivot to Robots, AI Agents Proliferate Trading the Markets With AI (Real Vision: Finance & Investing)
A shaky ceasefire (Swamp Notes)
The Civilization Trump Destroys May Be Our Own (The Ezra Klein Show)
Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump's War (The Ezra Klein Show)
In Iran, an Uneasy Calm Amid a Cease-Fire (The Journal.)
Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis (The Macro Trading Floor)
Big Tech Opportunity (The Markets)
Software Winners & Losers in the Age of AI (wAlex Rubalcava & Paul Bricault) #626 (The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing)
U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution (Thoughts on the Market)
Across the Pond A new normal after the ceasefire (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Affording a war' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
What has changed (Unhedged)
This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.