In the wake of this weeks RBA increase in interest rates, how difficult is it to forecast in uncertain times? Former economist at the RBA and lecturer at Monash University, Isaac Gross discusses indicators and predictions. How can it be that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is higher than the number of unemployed? Why are some people receiving benefits exempt from looking for work? Professor Peter Whiteford from the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU talks through these conundrums. And what's the correlation between military spend and economic growth? It's complicated as Simon Rabinovitch, The Economist's US economics editor explains.