International report

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the United Nations General Assembly to criticise Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But as Erdogan tries to lead opposition to Israel, Turkey is finding itself increasingly sidelined in the region.

At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an "international alliance of humanity" to stop Israel as it did Hitler 70 years ago. However, such fiery rhetoric is finding a shrinking audience.

"It's more conveying a message to their own base", said Sezin Oney of the Turkish news portal Politikyol. "There isn't an audience that really sees Turkey or Erdogan as the vanguard of Palestine rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed long ago."

Erdogan attempted to boost his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Ankara is increasingly finding itself sidelined as a regional diplomatic player.

"Ankara's pro-Hamas approach has only marginalised Turkey in the international arena," said international relations expert Selin Nasi of the London School of Economics. "So we see Egypt and Qatar receiving credits for their roles as mediators. And Turkey is locked out of international diplomatic efforts."

Since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent Gaza campaign, Ankara has tried to position itself among international mediating efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas.

Turkish youth finds common cause in protests against trade with Israel

Mediation efforts

"Turkey was asked by the United States to speak with Hamas people", said international relations expert Soli Ozel at Vienna's Institute for Human Studies.

However, Ozel says the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran denied Erdogan his diplomatic trump card.

"One big blow to Turkey has been the murder of Haniyeh, with which Turkey did have very close relations. For all I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport", said Ozel.

"And I really don't think Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas".

With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric along with Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's National Security Studies says Turkey has nothing to offer.

Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race

"There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. They're the two actors that have leverage over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support of Hamas, has very little leverage on Hamas's decisions," said Lindenstrauss.

"So Turkey is not effective – it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political leverage over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice ...Turkey is not very efficient.

"So I don't think it's a mistake that Turkey is not part of this [mediation] process."

Ankara has been quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have achieved little, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon.

However, some experts claim Ankara's diplomatic sidelining has a broader message of Arab countries pushing back against Turkey's involvement in the region.

"None of the Arab countries would like to get Turkey involved in this process," said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University.

"Turkey could be considered by their views as the enemy of Israel, but it is artificial. The Middle East Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948 has been an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict."

Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals

Regional ambitions

For more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to project Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often referring to the years of Ottoman rule as the halcyon days of peace and tranquillity.

But the latest Middle East war has ended such dreams, analyst Ozel said.

"The Turkish government thought that they could dominate the Middle East. They played the game of hegemony seeking, and they lost it," Ozel explained.

"When they lost it, Turkey found itself way behind [the position] it had prior to 2011 when their grandiose scheme of creating a region which would be dominated by Turkey began."

As the Israel-Hamas war threatens to escalate across the region, Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel will likely continue. But analysts warn that outside of the leader's conservative base at home, few others in the region will be receptive.

In Turkey, a student-led campaign highlighting trade with Israel is putting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an increasingly tight spot. While the president has officially declared an embargo over Israel's war in Gaza, youth activists are exposing ongoing dealings that risk embarrassing the government and crossing traditional political divides.

In Istanbul's conservative Uskudar district overlooking the Bosphorus waterway, activists from the group 1,000 Youth for Palestine recently gathered to protest the killing by Israeli security forces of the Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi.

But along with chants condemning Israel, the demonstrators also attacked Erdogan and his government for Turkey's continuing trade with Israel.

"I am here to force the Turkish government to stop the oil trade with Israel and to stop genocide," declared Gulsum, a university academic who only wanted to be identified by her first name for security reasons.

"This is not just a public demand. It's also a legal obligation for Turkey to stop genocide."

Since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the student-based group has directed its protests at the export of Azerbaijani oil to Israel by way of a Turkish port.

It also targets Turkish companies – many of which have close ties to Erdogan – that it accuses of circumventing the trade embargo by using third parties.

Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil

Unifying cause

The group uses social networks to broadcast its message, getting around government-controlled media.

The activists say they have received broad support that crosses Turkey's traditional divides of religious and secular.

"When it comes to Palestine, it is a story that we all unite about," said Gizem, a university student and 1,000 Youth for Palestine member.

"There are those who define themselves as socialists and those who define themselves as Islamists. There are also apolitical youth who say 'I don't like politics', but still join us."

While Erdogan presents himself as a stalwart defender of the Palestinian cause, police are cracking down on the protests.

One of the group's Palestinian members was arrested after activists disrupted a panel discussion on Israel hosted by the state broadcaster. She now faces deportation in a case that has provoked further protests.

Images of police arresting headscarf-wearing members of the group further embarrassed Erdogan and his religious base.

Protests escalate in Turkey over Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel amid embargo

'Divide and rule'

Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, says the group's diversity poses a problem for Erdogan, given he has often sought to exploit the deep divisions between religious and secular voters when facing attack.

She argues that 1,000 Youth for Palestine's ability to bridge those gaps is indicative of a wider change in Turkish society.

"It's actually portraying the current youth of Turkey – you don't have monolithic circles in the grassroots," explains Oney.

"You have a mixture: hybrid groups of conservatives, conservative-looking, but very progressive," she says. "Such hybrid groups are coming together because of a cause, but ideologically or background-wise or social class-wise, they may be very diverse.

"And that's something threatening for the government. Because the government is embarking on divide and rule."

Persistent political headache

Erdogan lost heavily in local elections earlier this year, a defeat widely blamed both on economic problems and anger over Turkey's ties to Israel.

The 1,000 Youth for Palestine activists say they hope to continue to build on those results. 

"The reason for our success is that we put our finger on the right spot. We expose the hypocrisy of both the capitalists, the corporations and the government," claims Murat, a university student who belongs to the group.

"People also saw this hypocrisy and thought that someone should speak out, and they supported us a lot because of that," he added. "We will unite as the people of Turkey and continue to stand in the right place in history to stop the massacre in Palestine."

The diversity of 1,000 Youth for Palestine is seen as its main strength, which is why it will likely continue to pose a political headache for Erdogan. Yet it may also offer hope that the deep divides in Turkish society can be bridged.

Turkey is undergoing an unprecedented naval expansion, positioning itself as one of Europe’s largest naval powers. While some neighbours are alarmed, Ankara insists the build-up is defensive and meant to meet growing regional commitments.

“We must have a strong and effective navy to live in peace on our lands,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after commissioning the latest of six planned submarines.

Along with a new helicopter carrier, frigates and over a dozen warships under construction, this is part of Erdogan’s push to bolster the Turkish navy.

“It fits Erdogan’s political agenda of exerting influence overseas, from Qatar to Somalia to Libya,” said Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

“For the navy, it means a greater role in the defence of the country – no longer just territorial, but forward defence from overseas.”

New course

The change has transformed the navy’s mission.

“Turkish sailors used to sail off to sea, but they would come back on the same day to their home bases and spend the night in their homes. That's no longer the case,” Guvenc says.

“The Turkish navy is evolving into a major regional power.”

Turkey’s military presence abroad includes bases in Qatar, Libya and Somalia, with naval agreements in place. Ankara claims its expansion addresses growing threats around the region.

“When you look at the conflicts in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, they are all around Turkey,” said Mesut Casin, a Turkish presidential adviser and professor at Yeditepe University.

He also pointed to Turkey’s NATO role: “The naval modernisation benefits NATO and the security of Western allies, especially in terms of oil and navigation security.”

Ankara has been quick to flex its new naval muscles. Four years ago, Turkish warships allegedly targeted a French NATO vessel enforcing an arms embargo on Libya.

Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals

Regional concerns

Greece, with longstanding territorial disputes with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean, has voiced particular concern. Israel, too, has raised alarms over Turkey’s naval growth, including military drones deployed in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus.

“Some of Turkey’s naval moves, like the UAV base in Northern Cyprus, could be aimed at Israel,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

"This doesn't mean again there will be a direct confrontation, but it does mean that it is something that the Israeli army has to calculate for."

Greece is also modernising its navy in response to what it sees as the Turkish threat. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reaffirmed the need for a “deterrent power” against Turkey.

Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks

Meanwhile, Israel's growing naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the deployment of advanced naval assets and joint military exercises with regional partners, is adding to Turkish concerns.

"The Turkish military has begun to feel concerned about the deployment of its [Israel's] nuclear missile capable submarines in the Mediterranean," said naval expert Guvenc.

“As long as they were in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean, it wasn’t a problem. But once they shifted to the Mediterranean, it became a potential threat.”

Guvenc is warning that escalating regional suspicions risks spiraling out of control.

“It’s a vicious circle. Turkey builds a new navy to address threats, and now its neighbours feel threatened by Turkey’s naval growth. This is how arms races start, and they don’t tend to end well.”

Turkish shipyards are working at full capacity to meet the country’s growing naval demands. Analysts say this will likely only deepen fears and tensions with its neighbours.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Ankara this week, signalling the end to years of animosity with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders committed themselves to a new era of cooperation – but some observers question how long it will last.

The Egyptian president received a full diplomatic reception, with military bands and horses parading the Egyptian flag through the streets of the Turkish capital on Wednesday.

Erdogan did not hold back in welcoming a man he once dubbed a "brutal dictator", and signalled a new era of partnership between the two countries.

"With our joint declaration, we confirmed our will to advance our cooperation in all fields, including industry, trade, defence, health, environment and energy," the Turkish president declared.

String of bilateral agreements

The two leaders signed no fewer than 17 agreements to deepen bilateral trade, diplomatic and military cooperation.

The goal is to expand their annual commercial exchanges to over €13 billion in five years, from a little over €9 billion now.

They also discussed their concerns linked to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the shared desire to see a ceasefire there – part of a wider trend of converging regional interests.

Sisi's visit follows Erdogan's trip to Cairo in February, which resulted from years of efforts to mend damaged relations.

Ankara and Cairo cut ties in 2013 after Sisi, then defence minister, ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi – Turkey's ally and part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

• Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendship

Question of Somaliland

Despite the decade of estrangement, trade between the two countries never ceased: Turkey is Egypt's fifth-largest trading partner, while Egypt is Turkey's largest in Africa.

With the Egyptian and Turkish economies in difficulty, the need to increase bilateral trade is seen as a powerful impetus towards rapprochement and a driving force for cooperation.

It could also ease tension in oil-rich Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and where Cairo and Ankara back rival governments.

Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila says that Libya has become an important arena for both countries.

"Because the lines in the sand are so set – and each country has its sphere of influence – this has helped both countries realise that it's much more lucrative if they cooperate rather than fight each other," she told RFI.

Sisi and Erdogan also discussed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway state of Somaliland, following reports that Egypt has started deploying weapons to Mogadishu.

The deployment is part of Egypt's bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo claims seriously threatens vital water supplies from the Nile River.

• Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa

Rivalry paused, not ended?

However, analysts suggest Egypt could also be seeking to challenge Turkey's influence in Somalia – in which it has heavily invested – as well as complicating Ankara's efforts to mediate between the Somali and Ethiopian governments.

Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, a professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, acknowledges the danger – but predicts Erdogan and Sisi will initially seek common ground.

"Both Egypt and Turkey can cooperate in Somalia, especially in terms of security," she observes.

"They can implement joint anti-terrorism initiatives. They can combine their efforts in development projects. They can involve themselves in political stabilisation initiatives, and so on.

"But they can also compete with each other for a more significant role and influence in Somalia."

For now, though, most experts seem to agree that with the spectre of a wider regional conflict and increasing economic pressures, Erdogan and Sisi are fully aware that cooperation, rather than rivalry, is in both their interests. 

Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region.

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive.

"We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said.

"This constitutes notable progress."

While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September.

Controversial deal 

Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.

Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity.

"Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs.

"It’s the second-largest country in Africa. It’s a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it’s not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland."

Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse.

"It’s not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they’re under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said.

"But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia."

Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts.

Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland dispute

Deepening influence

The situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet.

Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara’s Social Sciences University said Turkey’s historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts.

"Somalia has a very important place in Turkey’s Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia’s capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu.

"But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces."

Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks

Economic, military stakes

Earlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones.

Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region’s potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route.

"There’s a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said.

"It’s a region that has not been developed. It has hydrocarbon resources and other resources like agricultural resources that have not been developed and would need networks and infrastructure that a country like Turkey could provide if there was security and stability."

Ethiopian and Somali talks are set to resume in September. Success would underline Turkey’s growing influence in a region of increasing international competition, while failure could threaten two decades of Turkish investment in the region.

Fears are rising that Azerbaijan and Armenia are entering an arms race, which could undermine US-backed peace talks and trigger a new conflict.

Azerbaijan showcased its military might in a grand parade in Baku last year to celebrate its victory in recapturing the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from Armenian-backed forces.

Azerbaijan, buoyed by its oil wealth, is continuing its aggressive rearmament programme, heavily relying on Turkey for military support.

“The Turkish defence industry and Turkish military equipment will be providing further arms to protect Azerbaijan," predicts Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.”

However, Bagci noted that Azerbaijan is also turning to another ally for advanced weaponry.

“Israel is much better in this respect. Azerbaijan buys the highest technology from Israel, and Israel is providing it.”

Turkish and Israeli arms played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's recent military successes, overwhelming Armenian-backed forces that relied on outdated Russian equipment.

Armenia's response

In response to its loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is also ramping up its military capabilities, with France leading the supply of new, sophisticated weaponry.

Paris argues that this support helps Armenia shift its focus away from Russian reliance and towards Western alliances.

Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence.

“Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan," says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia.

"The goal is to create deterrents to make any aggression against Armenia more costly. In the medium term, we aim for equality, and in the long term, superiority.”

Stalled peace talks

The rearmament comes amid stalled peace talks, with Baku concerned that Yerevan’s military buildup might indicate ambitions to retake Nagorno Karabakh.

“The truth is our territory was under occupation, so we worry that in five, 10 years, Armenia will rearm its military, strengthen military capacities, and will come back,” warned Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Centre of Analysis of International Relations.

Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence.

“Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The goal is to create deterrents in the short run to make any aggression against Armenia far more costly than it has been in the past,” says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia.

“Two is to create equality in the middle term and in the long term superiority. You can’t have any other goal when your country is constantly under threat, or attack is the only way to respond to it."

Hacopian also notes: “The moment Armenia can defend itself, then the game is up because Ilham Aliyev is not going to risk a war that he is not guaranteed to win; Armenia rearming means he is not guaranteed to win a war which he means he won’t launch one.”

However, Hacopian acknowledges that the coming year will be dangerous for the region as Yerevan seeks to close the military gap with Azerbaijan.

"Next year is the year of living dangerously because next year is the last year that they can do a major aggression against Armenia without having to face the consequences because the gap is closing. Once it closes, the game will be up,” he says.

Ongoing tensions

Earlier this month, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire in a border skirmish, underscoring the ongoing tensions between the two nations.

Both Baku and Yerevan insist their military enhancements are for defensive purposes.

However, Bagci warns that the arms race is turning the region into a potential flashpoint.

“Armenia and Azerbaijan are like two children; they play with fire, and the house is burning, and everybody is asking the big powers why the house is burning and who has done it. They have done it together,” he says.

Despite their rearmament, both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim to remain committed to the US-backed peace process.

Analysts, however, warn that the escalating arms race could deepen mutual suspicions and further complicate efforts to achieve lasting peace.

In a bid to break out of increasing international isolation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week hosted Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara – positioning Turkey as a key player in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Abbas received a standing ovation in the Turkish Parliament on Thursday, where he addressed an extraordinary session. Deputies wore scarves adorned with Turkish and Palestinian flags as a show of solidarity.

With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watching from the balcony, Abbas praised Turkey’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause.

"We highly appreciate Turkey's pioneering role under the leadership of President Erdogan for its courageous and unwavering positions in defense of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to freedom and independence," declared Abbas.

Increasing isolation

Erdogan is attempting to position himself at the forefront of international opposition to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, even as Turkey finds itself increasingly sidelined from global efforts to resolve the conflict.

China’s recent hosting of Palestinian faction leaders highlights Erdogan’s diminishing influence.

“Erdogan was hoping to reconcile Palestinian factions, but China stole the spotlight and acted preemptively. China had more political clout over the parties,” Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics contemporary Turkish studies department, told RFI.

Abbas’s visit to Russia on Tuesday further underscores the growing importance of other nations in efforts to address the Gaza conflict.

Domestic message

Erdogan’s invitation to Abbas also serves as a way to reinforce his pro-Palestinian credentials with his domestic conservative base.

“He’s trying to keep his base intact domestically,” Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s Politikyol news portal, told RFI.

“Once upon a time, Erdogan resonated with the Arab public in general.

"The Arab Street, as it was called back then, and the Muslim population in general saw him as connected with international grassroots movements. But he doesn’t have that appeal anymore; he’s lost that appeal.”

Turkey a bridge?

Erdogan has long claimed to be a bridge between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

“This is an issue that Erdogan personally invested a lot of time and energy in,” said Selin Nasi.

However, Erdogan’s influence with Hamas has waned, particularly after the assassination of its leader Ismail Haniyeh last month, and his replacement by Yahya Sinwar, who is relatively unknown in Turkey.

"They cannot host [Sinwar], they cannot contact him, nor do they have the kind of relations that they had with Haniyeh. So they have to settle with Mahmoud Abbas at this point," Oney said.

Abbas, however, appears to show little interest in Turkey's playing a larger role in resolving the conflict, and Erdogan's strong support of Hamas and his fiery rhetoric against Israel is increasingly isolating him from countries seeking to end the fighting.

China’s car giant BYD’s announcement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey represents a significant turnaround in bilateral relations. However, concerns persist regarding human rights issues and Turkey’s stance on the Chinese Muslim Uyghur community.

In a ceremony attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, China's BYD car company signed an agreement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey.

The factory will produce 150,000 vehicles annually, mainly for the European Union market.

Analysts say the July deal marks a turning point in Turkish-Chinese relations.

"The significance of this deal is Turkey would be considered as a transition country between China and the EU," Sibel Karabel, director of the Asia Pacific department of Istanbul's Gedik University told RFI.  

"This deal has the potential to reduce the trade imbalance, the trade deficit, which is a detriment to Turkey," he adds, "Turkey also wants to reap the benefits of China's cutting-edge technologies by collaborating with China."

Sidestepping tariffs

China's pivot towards Turkey, a NATO member, is also about Beijing's increasing competition for global influence, especially with the United States.  

Karabel says the planned BYD factory offers a way for China to avoid the EU's new tariffs on vehicles.

Turkey is already a part of China's global investment strategy through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing has shown interest in Turkey becoming a trade route from China to Europe through Ankara's Middle Corridor Intiative.

But until now, such collaborations have until been just empty words, claims Ceren Ergenc a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies.  

Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve trade

"When you look at the press statements after meetings, you don't see Chinese investments in Turkey, and the reason for that is because China perceives Turkey as a high political risk country in the region," Ergenc explains.

One of the main factors widely cited for Beijing's reluctance to invest in Turkey is Ankara's strong support of China's Muslim Uyghur minority.

Ankara has been critical of Beijing's crackdown on Uyghurs, offering refuge to many Uyghur dissidents. Their Turkish supporters fear Beijing's billion-dollar investment in Turkey could be part of an extradition deal struck during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to China.

"There are rumors, of course, that the Chinese side is pressing for the ratification of this extradition agreement, that they would want Uyghurs in Turkey, some of them at least, to be returned to China to be tried in China," warns Cagdas Ungor of Istanbul's Marmara University, referring to people China considers to be dissidents or "terrorists".

Common ground over Gaza

Elsewhere, Ankara and Beijing are finding increasing diplomatic common ground, including criticism of Israel's war on Hamas.

"If you take, for instance, the Gaza issue right now, Turkey and China, and even without trying," observes Ungor, "they see eye to eye on this issue. Their foreign policies align, overlap, and their policy becomes very much different from most of the other Western countries."

Carmakers unhappy after EU hits China with tariffs on electric vehicles

For example, Ankara welcomed last month's decision by Beijing to host Palestinian leaders amid an escalation of threats and bombardment by Israel.

Such a move can provide common ground, Ungor suggests, and this could be the basis for future cooperation.

"There are certain issues at a global level, at the regional level, that China seems to be a much better partner(to Turkey) than the Western countries," he concludes.

Joint military exercises between US and Armenian forces are the latest steps in Yerevan's efforts to shift away from Moscow. The potential reopening of the Armenian border with Turkey could also prove crucial – though it may ultimately depend on Armenia's rival, Azerbaijan.

July saw major military drills in Armenia between Armenian and United States forces.

"Politically, it is exceptionally relevant; they are four or five times larger than last year," explains Eric Hacopian, a political analyst in Armenia, who notes the range of US divisions mobilised for the drills. "It's not about peacekeeping."

The military exercise, dubbed "Eagle Partner", is part of Yerevan's wider efforts to escape its Russian neighbour's sphere of influence, Hacopian believes.

"These are serious exercises, and they were followed up with the news that there is going to be US permanent representation in the Ministry of Defence of Armenia as advisors to join the French who are already there," he noted.

"Essentially, there is no other play but to join the West."

France, Russia stand on opposite sides of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

Armenia is also seeking to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, pressing Turkey to open its border and providing a new gateway to Western markets for the landlocked country.

Ankara closed the frontier in 1993 after ethnic Armenian forces seized the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, with Azerbaijani forces recapturing the enclave last year, analysts say the opening of the border could now align with Turkey's goals to expand its regional influence.

"The normalisation of the relationship with Armenia would allow Turkish policy in the Cacasus to acquire a more comprehensive dimension today. That's the missing element," said Sinan Ulgen, an analyst with the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul.

"Turkey obviously has very strong links to Azerbaijan and very good relations with Georgia, but not with Armenia," he explained. "And that's a predicament, as we look at Turkey's overall policy in the Caucasus."

Leverage

Washington is working hard to broker a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "A deal is close," declared US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of July's NATO summit in Washington.

Last week, Turkish and Armenian envoys held their fifth meeting aimed at normalising relations. However, with critical issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan unresolved, Baku sees Turkey's reopening of the Armenian border as important leverage.

In principle, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are in favour, claims Farid Shafiyev, an Azeri former diplomat and now chair of the Centre of Analysis of International Relations in Baku.

"However, we believe at this stage, as we have not signed a peace agreement, it might send a wrong signal to Yerevan and Armenia that we don't need to come to an agreement about the core issues – the mutual recognition of territorial integrity," he said.

Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict?

Meanwhile Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and is ruling out opening the border until Baku's demands are met.

Turkish arms were key to Azerbaijan's recent military successes against Armenian-backed forces. "Azerbaijan is where it is, in good part because of Turkey's military assistance, intelligence assistance and all that," argues Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

But Ozel says Baku is dictating Ankara's Caucasus policy. "It is befuddling to me that Turkey cannot open the borders with Armenia, which Armenia both needs and wants, because of Azerbaijan's veto," he said. "Especially if indeed Azerbaijan, for one reason or another, believes that its interests are once more in turning toward Russia."

With Azerbaijan's Socar energy company Turkey's biggest foreign investor, Baku retains powerful economic leverage over Ankara – meaning any hope of reopening the Turkish-Armenian border appears dependent on the wishes of Azerbaijan's leadership.

A new law that threatens to cull millions of street dogs in Turkey has sparked nationwide anger. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists the strays are a public health risk, critics say the move is an attempt to distract from bigger problems.

Under controversial legislation currently passing through parliament, local authorities would be responsible for rounding up stray dogs, which would be killed after 30 days if an owner can not be found for them.

Opponents claim as many as eight million street dogs could be at risk.

"They are planning to round them up into shelters, which we call death camps," said Zulal Kalkandelen, one of the animals rights activists taking part in a recent protest against the plan in Istanbul.

"For some time, there has been a campaign to fuel stray animal hatred," she declared.

"Our people, who have been living with street dogs for many years, in fact for centuries, are now being brought to the point where all these animals will be erased."

Street dogs have been a part of Istanbul life for centuries. The proposed legislation evokes memories of a dark chapter in the city's past when, in 1910, street dogs were rounded up and left on a nearby island to starve.

It has provoked emotive arguments in parliament, with MPs jostling one another and exchanging insults – opening another deep divide in an already fractured political landscape.

But President Erdogan insists something must be done to control stray animals that, he argues, have become a menace to society, causing traffic accidents and spreading disease.

Humane alternatives

Addressing parliament, Erdogan claimed he was answering the call of the "silent majority".

"The truth is that a very large part of society wants this issue to be resolved as soon as possible and our streets to become safe for everyone, especially our children," he declared.

"It is unthinkable for us to remain indifferent to this demand, this call, even this cry. Our proposals are no different from those of other countries in Europe."

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Lawyer Elcin Cemre Sencan, who has helped organise protests against the proposed legislation, argues there are more humane ways to address people's concerns.

"There is a group of people who are disturbed by these stray animals or who are afraid even to touch them," she acknowledges. "But even if there are these concerns, the solution is not to put the dogs to sleep.

"Scientific studies have shown that sterilising animals, especially dogs, reduces not only their numbers but also attacks on people."

Veterinary organisations have also pointed out that the cost of euthanising a dog is many times higher than sterilisation and vaccination.

Diversion tactic?

Some critics suggest politics could be behind the move.

With Erdogan's conservative AK Party suffering heavy defeats in local elections this spring and Turkey grappling with near 100 percent inflation, opponents claim the Turkish president could be calculating that objections to his street dog legislation comes mainly from the secular opposition and hoping the issue will consolidate his religious base.

"We know our problems in this country; the world knows our problems. There is an economic crisis, and we have human rights problems everywhere. But they want to change the main topics to these animals," said Eyup Cicerali, a professor at Istanbul's Nisantasi University, at a recent protest against the legislation.  

"They want to kill them all," he claimed. "We are here to protect our values, values of respect and dignity for human and animal rights. Life is an issue for all groups."

According to one recent opinion poll, less than 3 percent of the Turkish public support the culling of street dogs.

Some of Erdogan's MPs have even started speaking out against the law in the media, albeit anonymously. "This law makes us dog killers," one unnamed deputy was quoted as saying.

Despite such misgivings, the legislation is expected to pass parliament later this month.

But with the protests drawing together secular and religious animal lovers, and opposition-controlled local authorities declaring they won't impose the law, the stray dog legislation could prove a risky move for Erdogan.

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