In this episode, we have our usual macro-outlook, starting with what happened in Davos, how trade is shaping the geopolitical environment and what this means for dry freight. We are then exploring the fascinating and fast-moving world of base metals. From copper that powers the clean energy transition to aluminium driving manufacturing innovation, these foundational commodities are at the heart of global industry and economic growth.

Joining us is Andy Farida, Senior Analyst at Fastmarkets, bringing us his sharp insights and a clear pulse on the market, delving in the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the base metals space. Whether you’re an investor, an industry professional, or just curious about what’s moving these markets, Andy’s outlook will help you make sense of it all.

On the 3rd January 2026, the United States military launched Operation Absolute Resolve, an operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas. President Trump stated that the US would “run Venezuela” and that American oil companies would step in to help “fix the badly broken infrastructure”.

Venezuela’s strategic importance, however, extends well beyond oil. The country holds significant reserves of a wide range of commodities, raising important economic, market and geopolitical questions.

In this first episode of Into the Futures, Richard Stephenson examines the implications of recent events, the changing US foreign policy, the outlook for Venezuelan commodities, and what this could mean for global financial markets.

This week on Freight Up, we set out to give listeners practical insights into the world of risk management across the commodity spectrum, from freight to metals to crude oil.

If you’re looking to understand what’s really happening under the surface of today’s volatile markets, this episode features perspectives from professionals who operate right at that interface between price risk and real-world trade.

We started with Samuel Basi, founder of Perfectly Hedged Consultancy and a former Trafigura metals trader, for a deep dive into the realities of commodity hedging in liquid and illiquid markets.

From there, we heard from Carlo Boffa, a central bank watcher at Politico, on central bank decisions and how the evolving landscape of monetary policy is shaping the US dollar and, by extension, commodity prices.

We wrap up with Archie Smith, oil broker, who broke down the extreme pricing swings in the oil market driven by macro shocks and geopolitical headlines, highlighting what’s front of mind for market participants right now.

Some of the headline talking points this week include: the merits and pitfalls of one-to-one hedging in today’s market, with Sam exploring where hedging can reduce risk and where it might inadvertently add more.

We tackled the specific challenges faced by traders and companies in less liquid markets, including practical ways to quantify risk and work with imperfect hedges—or get creative in the over-the-counter space to find coverage.

Options came under the spotlight, especially with clients’ hesitancy to use them, and Sam gave practical context about why options sometimes get overlooked and when they can be a valuable part of a strategy.

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• FIS
• Perfectly Hedged Consultancy
• Trafigura
• Politico
• LME
• CME
• SGX
• ICE
• Citadel
• GMI

This latest episode of Freight Up tracks the markets with a strong focus on capesize bulk carriers and the shifting opportunities in iron ore spreads.

I’m Jess, and alongside Davide, I’ll be steering you through what’s been a dynamic couple of weeks across freight and commodity markets.

This week, we dig into why the capesize segment has outperformed, the forces shaping paper and physical market moves, and how macroeconomic shifts in China and the West are starting to make their mark.

We also welcome Ben Klang for a guided walk through the supply side changes impacting vessel values and orders, and bring in Hao Pei from Shanghai for a deep dive on iron ore and coking coal.

To tie it all together, Archie Smith closes with an update on what’s shaping fuel oil and crude benchmarks, and why it’s been a sideways stretch for paper spreads.

If you listen in, you’ll get a clear overview of how China’s latest manufacturing PMI numbers and consumer price dips are casting a shadow, putting a tighter squeeze on iron ore and freight rates. We cover the upturn in capes, with spot indices making their highest push yet this year, gains on FFAs, and a turnaround in Panamaxes driven by robust South American grain flows.

Ben helps make sense of the slowdown in secondhand vessel sales, explaining why average vessel ages are climbing and why scrapping is nearly at a standstill, even as demand feels subdued. We break down the logic: owners are holding onto older tonnage, newbuild orders have fallen to historic lows, and low earnings are nudging many to wait for clearer regulatory and market signals before acting. This creates a backdrop of supply that’s hard to clear, explaining the persistent pressure on rates.

From the commodities desk, Hao Pei explains what’s behind the compression in the MB65-P62 iron ore spread, pointing to an unusually loose supply of premium ore, increased concentrate shipments, and why investors see more upside than risk at these levels. The episode also unpacks a sharp rebound in coking coal, as policy rumours and production cuts meet sustained low demand—a situation that looks precarious but sets the stage for future price action.

Finally, Archie brings the fuel oil discussion up to date: crude oil’s recent climb is reviewed alongside OPEC’s output strategies and why Singapore’s high-sulphur fuel oil spreads have cooled. There’s especial attention on arbitrage opportunities and the persistent strength of European very low sulfur fuels compared to their Asian counterparts.

By the time you’ve finished listening, you’ll be able to identify the major factors currently moving the key freight indices for capes and panamaxes, understand how vessel age and supply trends are affecting rates, and spot where different market players are seeing opportunity or sitting back. You’ll come away with a clearer sense of the iron ore and coal market mechanics, and you’ll have better insight into the drivers behind recent fuel oil and crude benchmark performances.

Whether you’re looking to inform a trade, better time a market entry, or just get a precise read on what’s shaping dry bulk and commodity shipping, this episode will give you the ground-level detail and wider context you need.

Iron ore has seen a sharp drop recently, and high sulphur fuel oil cracks have surged to levels not seen before—two standout moves that framed this episode of Freight Up.

Hi I’m Jess, and alongside Davide and the team, we walk you through what’s really driving these changes in dry bulk freight and associated commodity markets.

You'll get to listen in at how macroeconomic shifts, from British and Chinese output data to volatile US producer prices, ripple through to capesize, panamax, and supramax freight rates.

We pull apart the data to give you a snapshot of who’s gaining, who’s losing, and crucially, why those shifts matter for your business or your market view.

Ben Klang takes us through the past two weeks on the freight desk, describing how minor volatility in the cape market was quickly tempered as fixtures came through and macro tensions eased.

If you’re watching iron ore, we cover the steep pullback, tied less to headlines and more to solid fundamentals: declining pig iron output in China, seasonal maintenance, and looming Indian monsoon slowdowns. Hao Pei shares why these are seasonal and not panic-worthy moves, even if some investors have visions of iron ore dropping into the low $70s.

On oil and bunkers, Archie Smith delivers a concise summary: crude markets haven’t escaped their range, with all eyes on the upcoming OPEC meeting, while high sulphur fuel oil cracks—historically always negative—have broken into positive territory, even hitting plus $4 in Singapore.

00:00 China's Industrial Growth Slows

06:25 Capesize Market Challenges Persist

07:03 Capesize Cargo Volumes Rising

11:49 "Market Shifts Impact Iron Ore Demand"

14:59 OPEC Meeting and Crude Price Outlook

16:47 Record-High Crack Spread Highlights Trends

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The main story across freight and commodities over the past fortnight has been the headline-making 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China.

Hi, I’m Jess, and on this episode of Freight Up, myself and Davide unpack how this policy shift has tempered volatility and delivered a short-term lift to otherwise flat markets.

Ben Klang joins us after a busy run of industry events, detailing the impact on dry freight—where Capesize contracts saw a fleeting rebound before losing ground, and smaller Panamax and Supramax rates remained lacklustre.

We’ll investigate the cautious optimism on the macro front, following stubborn inflation and steady US employment numbers.

We'll also take a closer look at iron ore and steel markets, with regional insights you won’t want to miss.

From Shanghai, Hao Pei explores iron ore’s resilience—even as tariffs shift—and the mounting influence of port logistics in Peru and ongoing maintenance cycles in China.

00:00 Mixed Inflation and Market Stability

03:32 Cape Size Contract Fluctuations

08:06 Steel Tariffs Impact and Trade Dynamics

10:44 FOBCC Market Outlook Uncertain

13:24 US Steel Market Challenges

18:10 "Spot Price Drop Forecasted"

Website

Check out FIS Live - https://www.fis-live.com/

Markets this week have been shaped by a volley of global events, each leaving its mark on commodities and freight. We’ve seen flat performances across dry freight indexes, despite slight gains in Capesize and Panamax sectors, and a muted Supramax uptick offset by minor losses in Handys.

Oil and equity markets? Responding to political developments, most notably in the US, as tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on sentiment.

If you’re following the impact of US and Canadian politics on trade, this episode provides a timely overview.

Chris Hudson joins me, Davide, to break down the effects of Trump’s executive orders and tariffs on North America’s cross-border commodity trade, alongside the newly-elected Prime Minister Carney’s reaction in Canada.

We flag the difficulties market participants are facing as they try to adapt to “wait and see” conditions, with S&P volatility, shifting border policy, and tariff unpredictability creating new risks.

The episode also explores the knock-on effects for currencies and global commodity pricing, tracking the Fed’s interest rate stance and its implications for everything priced in dollars.

You'll get a first-hand view on how global supply chains are being tested by changing political rhetoric, and what this means for iron ore, coking coal, and dry freight trends moving into May.

00:00 Market Volatility Amid News Overload

03:36 U.S. Politics: Executive Orders & Market Trends

08:24 Trump Era Politics & Economic Insights

09:54 Trump Criticises Powell on Rates

14:41 Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting

16:49 Decarbonisation Challenges and Economic Priorities

21:46 US Tariff Easing Boosts Markets

24:14 Australian Coking Coal Market Rebounds

This podcast episode delves into the pressing topic of the current state of the freight and commodity markets, particularly in the context of the influence of Donald Trump’s administration. The discussion initiates with an analysis of recent fluctuations in key commodity prices, including significant declines in dry freight markets and iron ore values. Subsequently, I engage in a comprehensive dialogue with Richard Stephenson, CEO of Freight Fix, who elucidates the evolving dynamics of global trade patterns and the ramifications of tariffs instituted under Trump’s economic policies. We critically assess the historical context leading to the present circumstances, identifying the long-term effects of financialization and the geopolitical shifts that have emerged in response to these policies. As we navigate through these complexities, we underscore the necessity for traders and stakeholders to adapt to an increasingly interconnected and shifting economic landscape.

Takeaways:

• The podcast discussed the recent downturn in dry freight markets, indicating significant rate drops since mid-March.
• Richard Stephenson elaborated on Freight Fix's analytical approach to shipping and trade, emphasizing data-driven decision-making.
• The conversation highlighted the impact of Donald Trump's policies on global trade, particularly tariffs and their consequences.
• The hosts noted the historical context of U.S. trade dynamics, tracing back to the post-war era and economic shifts.
• A significant point raised was the transformation of trade patterns due to tariffs, affecting traditional routes and buyer-supplier relationships.
• The discussion concluded with reflections on the future of trade, emphasizing the increased importance of regional collaborations over traditional dependencies.

Links referenced in this episode:

• freightfix.com
• fisglobal.com

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• FIS
• Freightfix
• Donald Trump
• OPEC
• BYD
• Tesla
• JP Morgan
• Pershing Square

If you’re looking to gain an understanding of how the steel industry is transforming, then this episode of "Freight Up" is for you.

Hello, we're Jess and Davide, and we welcome you back to another insightful episode of Freight Up – your go-to podcast for the latest in freight and commodity markets from Freight Investor Services or as some of us know us, FIS.

In our latest episode, we're diving into the dynamic world of electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and their impact on the US steel market.

As we're joined by Ali Oktay, a Senior Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, alongside our other expert guests, we'll be dissecting how the shift to EAFs is adding new steel capacity in the US and reshaping the market landscape.

EAFs have been pivotal in transitioning the US steel market, adding about 20 million tons of EAF sheet melting capacity since 2017, and they offer several economic and operational benefits, including quicker production adjustments and potential lower production costs.

This episode is set to provide you with deep insights into how these developments are pushing pricing ceilings and influencing future trends across global markets.

One key takeaway beyond the innovation of EAFs is how global market trends and trade policies are influencing demand and supply within the US steel market.

Ali discusses how recurring themes, such as trade policy, play fundamental roles in reshaping competitive contexts for US steel.

In this episode, we explore significant price fluctuations in the iron ore market with Hao Pei decoding the impacts of China's crude steel restrictions and market rumours on iron ore prices.

Hello, we're Jess and Davide, and we welcome you back to another insightful episode of Freight Up – your go-to podcast for the latest in freight and commodity markets from Freight Investor Services or as some of us know us, FIS.

This episode we ask why coking coal prices are being corralled or which forces in the Middle East might unsettle the stabilizing oil market?

Hao unravels these subjects and offers insights into potential market trends.

Meanwhile, Archie Smith tackles fuel oil market intricacies, detailing price behaviours and geopolitical factors that traders must watch.

As the world shifts closer to sustainable energy solutions, our captivating battery metals segment features Abex Commodity Futures Exchange’s Joe Raja and Sascha Lefschitz.

They share with us the course of innovative futures contracts and how they're reshaping risk management, offering traders more robust tools for the evolving battery landscape.

00:00 China: Deflation, Growth, and Shipping Trends

03:30 Iron Ore Market Volatility

08:36 Ukraine War Truce and Oil Impact

13:33 Rare New Futures Exchange Launch

17:02 Launching Nickel and Lithium Contracts

20:25 Comprehensive Risk Management Tool

21:51 Subscribe for Biweekly Freight Podcast

Links referenced in this episode:

• abex.com
• fislive.com
• freightinvestorservices.com
• linkedin.com