Investing in a Destabilized World

Do the large and geographically widespread Democratic wins in the 2025 elections have implications for investing? Keith and Ethan discuss whether a weaker Trump necessarily means anything will change -- at least with respect to investing strategy.

With more financial turbulence ahead, Keith wonders if his longtime choice to rent should change, in order to gain portfolio diversification through ownership of a physical asset.

Inspired by Eli Kasargod-Staub's description of the Jenga Tower Economy in his recent Substack, Keith and Ethan discuss the growing brittleness of different elements of our economy, and how the AI bubble popping would make these weaknesses hit hard.

Keith and Ethan unpack the volatile state of cryptocurrency: Is it finally going mainstream, or are we witnessing the setup for the next financial crisis? Maybe both. Tune in for a candid, nuanced take on what recent developments might mean for the future of money.

Keith and Ethan get philosophical about saving and spending, understanding that without getting it right there is no money to invest.

One reason market valuations are so high is optimism about the transofrmative power of AI -- but the tide seems to be turning. From ChatGPT's recent stumbles to theoretical limitations for LLMs in general, what does the deterioration in prospects for AI mean for stocks?

The Buffet Indicator: https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/

Keith and Ethan discuss the US government's declining ability to understand what is happening with the economy as a result of the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They also discuss whether an entire generation has been trained to "buy the dip" -- and what the implications for investors might be.

With increased inflation just over the horizon, Keith and Ethan discuss and rate the growing number of drivers of price increases.

With Ethan on break, Keith does a special video episode to take a look at economic data, finding that Trump's decisions have barely registered yet in several key economic indicators. But a quick review of pandemic era inflation data suggests it could take up to a year to really see policy impacts in the data.

Some useful links:

BLS interactive consumer prices graph

St. Louis Fed breakeven employment study

With the US formally entering the war in Iran, there is yet one more reason to feel the world is on fire. How do we think about markets and war -- and the specter of nuclear proliferation?