Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is slated to hold a press conference on Wednesday after the central bank’s rate announcement.
Credit: Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images

A barrage of economic data has tempered investors’ hopes for steady interest rates. Now the Fed will make its move—or not.

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene Tuesday and share its rate decision Wednesday afternoon. The committee will deliberate after the release of August job and inflation data, which reverberated through the stock market as investors mulled what the indicators may mean for interest rates.

Expectations for a rate hike rose when employment data depicted the labor market as relatively healthy: employers added more jobs than expected in August, and economists revised July and June job numbers upward.  (To cool the economy, the Fed can lift the federal funds rate, which can raise rates throughout the economy and curb spending, though it can also slow hiring.)

Fed watchers became more confident in their assessment when price data confirmed that inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Wholesale inflation—as measured by the Producer Price Index—came in hotter than expected and the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, matching the rate recorded in July and economists’ predictions.

Here’s what recent history says stocks tend to do at the start of a rate-hike cycle.

The Fed meeting lands in the middle of a relatively quiet week otherwise. Salesforce is hosting its annual Dreamforce conference, which will feature remarks from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, while August U.S. retail spending estimates are due.

Market Recap

Major stock indexes ended the week in the red, with the Dow falling 1.6% to lead the way lower. Oil prices topped $100 a barrel and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed above 4.97% as the government unveiled a $6 billion buyback of longer-term bonds. Investor confidence improved some Friday as the CPI matched expectations, with oil prices and bond yields ticking a bit lower. For more, read Friday’s market recap here. 

This Week’s Top Events

Here’s a look at major events in the week ahead. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Tuesday, Sept. 15: Salesforce’s (CRM) annual Dreamforce conference kicks off, with the main keynote scheduled for 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. ET. CEO Marc Benioff will discuss how people and AI agents can collaborate, and bring undisclosed special guests on stage. It’s unclear whether Amodei will join Benioff during the keynote address, but Amodei is listed as a Dreamforce speaker. Details on when speakers will address attendees and whether their remarks will be live streamed will be published on a live schedule, available here. 
• Wednesday, Sept. 16: The Census Bureau is slated to release August retail sales data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Spending fell 0.6% from June to July, without adjusting for inflation. Other spending metrics suggest that, after adjusting for inflation, spending has stagnated.
• Wednesday: The Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which begins Tuesday, is set to wrap up, with the committee slated to announce an interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
• Wednesday: Salesforce is set to host an investor and analyst session at Dreamforce, beginning at 4 p.m. ET.
• Wednesday: Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) is set to report its second-quarter financial results after the market’s close, with a conference call scheduled for Thursday morning at 11 a.m. ET.

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Construction on data centers hasn’t been as sensitive to interest rate increases, and it’s buoying some consumer spending.
Credit: George Frey / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Data center construction is shielding the economy from rate hikes by sustaining jobs in the construction sector.
• Rising bond yields are pressuring consumers with higher borrowing costs, but have not significantly impacted tech firms or stocks.
• Artificial intelligence adoption is boosting corporate earnings and productivity, supporting economic growth despite inflation risks.

Borrowing costs are nearing multi-year highs for consumers and businesses alike, but that doesn’t mean the economy is in for pain yet, some analysts say. 

Data centers are a big reason why, according to Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays’ global chairman of research. Their buildout continues to drive construction jobs, from plumbers to steelworkers, whose steady paychecks mean they aren’t being forced to cut back on spending at restaurants or retailers.

The construction sector typically suffers when rates rise, since building houses becomes more expensive. But the giant tech firms building data centers are far more immune to rising borrowing costs, helping keep construction jobs afloat.

“This is why the traditional rate transmission mechanism has not worked,” Rajadhyaksha wrote in a note to clients. “The dog did not bark because someone else was feeding it.”

The “insulation is not permanent,” he cautioned. Once the data centers are built, they may only need a few dozen permanent workers to keep them running. The stock market could also take a tumble if rates rise high enough, making wealthier households, whose spending has buffered the economy for years, less likely to travel or spend.

So far, stocks have remained unbothered. After softening a bit over the last week, the S&P 500 index rose 0.9% on Friday—even after a hotter-than-expected inflation report that makes Federal Reserve rate hikes more likely. Global oil prices are back over $100 a barrel as the Iran war heats up again, too, further raising inflation risks.

Soaring corporate earnings, however, are likely to keep favoring stocks in the near-term, wrote Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. 

“Earnings are still growing at a remarkable pace, thanks in part to the broadening adoption of new technologies such as AI,” Sai wrote in a blog post, adding that earnings growth is “too powerful to ignore.”

Household Borrowing

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was nearing 5% in late-afternoon trading, as the bond market reacted to Friday’s inflation report. 

Yields were last at those levels in 2023, when post-COVID prices and the war in Ukraine drove inflation to decades-long highs. At the time, the scorching pace of post-pandemic consumer spending kept the economy afloat, helping it defy widespread forecasts of recession.

Rising interest rates will no doubt limit consumer momentum, said Barclays’ Rajadhyaksha. Higher rates are already raising monthly auto payments, and higher credit card rates could put further pressure on lower-income consumers, who came under more stress in 2023. 

“These channels are real,” Rajadhyaksha wrote. “They are causing pain for specific parts of the economy. But they are not what historically causes recessions; construction is. And construction is insulated.”

The sector has remained busy even though housing has been in the dumps for years, Rajadhyaksha wrote. The 30-year mortgage rate breached 7% this week, since mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield.

Unflinching Tech Firms

Rising 10-year yields also affect tech companies, making it more expensive for them to borrow in bond markets. 

But the massive tech firms haven’t flinched despite memory chip prices tripling over the last 18 months, Rajadhyaksha wrote. And they’re unlikely to shelve their data center spending plans just because rates are up a modest amount, he added.

“The result is that the most capital-intensive construction cycle in the United States is being driven by entities for whom the cost of capital is, at a first approximation, irrelevant,” Rajadhyaksha wrote. “This has never been true in a prior tightening cycle.”

It is “one of the most important reasons why the economy has absorbed a substantial rate hike cycle without cracking,” he added.

Next year “could be when the economy hits its stride,” with the U.S. economy likely to grow by 2.5% and outperform its pace this year, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients. 

Persistently high energy costs or disappointing growth effects from artificial intelligence may throttle the outlook, he cautioned. Gas prices should ease next year but will likely stay elevated, which could mean consumer spending could “remain solid but not spectacular,” he wrote.

In the meantime, there are signs that AI is making the U.S. economy more productive and could boost corporate profits and workers’ incomes. 

“We expect the narrow boom in AI-focused industries to spread to a broader set of industries,” he wrote.

The share of workers with two jobs is back to pre-pandemic levels.
Credit: Abraham Gonzalez Fernandez / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The percentage of workers with multiple jobs has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but remains below its 1990s peak.
• Self-employed and middle-income workers are leading the growth.
• Side jobs and gig work are increasingly common but often go uncounted in federal data.

Americans are moonlighting at pre-pandemic levels again, but those with more than one job are not who they used to be.

About 5.5% of workers had more than one job in July, a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond analysis of federal data shows. That puts the rate back within the 5% to 6% range common before COVID-19, though still below the 6% to 7% of the mid-1990s.

The share of workers with multiple jobs fell to 4.1% during the pandemic, as layoffs hit all over the economy.

Holding down extra jobs is providing essential income for many American workers. Income from non-primary jobs makes up more than a quarter of the earnings of multiple jobholders, according to a 2021 report by Census Bureau researchers.

Why This Matters

The multiple-job-holding rate can signal both financial strain and that extra work is available, making it a closely watched measure of workers’ economic well-being. But since official figures miss many of the gigs and side jobs workers take on, they offer only a partial picture of how many Americans are doing it.

While the rate is back to pre-pandemic norms, workers who hold multiple jobs look different.

The growth in recent years has been led by self-employed workers whose businesses are incorporated. From 2000 to 2002, local government workers were the most likely to hold a second job, with 9.35% reporting multiple-job status. From 2023 to 2025, that rate for local government workers dropped to 7.62%, with the incorporated self-employed pulling ahead:

Middle-income families—those who earn between $50,000 and $150,000 annually—posted the largest increase in multiple jobholding. In 2021, 4.7% of middle-income workers held multiple jobs; by 2025, 5.6% did.

In the 1990s, about 35% of workers with multiple jobs held a college degree. In 2024, about half of multiple jobholders did.

Richmond Fed economists Kyle DeMaria and Urvi Neelakantan wrote that the official figures miss many gigs and side jobs Americans are taking. The Census survey counts someone as holding multiple jobs only if at least one pays a traditional wage. A worker whose only job is app-based won’t be counted among them.

Yet these gig jobs have become more popular as consumers contend with persistent, above-normal inflation.

A study of state administrative records in 2018 suggested the true rate of those holding multiple jobs was about 8%, about 3 percentage points above the official figure.

Many are using these jobs to plug gaps left by paychecks that aren’t keeping up. The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the year-over-year rise in hourly earnings was outpaced by inflation in July.

But the Richmond Fed economists cautioned against seeing every second job as a sign of distress. Citing earlier research, they noted that multiple jobholders often earn more at their primary jobs than comparable single jobholders, a sign, they said, that second jobs can reflect “capacity and opportunity” rather than insufficient hours at one employer.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues are trying to decide whether to hike interest rates.
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Federal Reserve’s policy committee is expected to raise its key interest rate for the first time since 2023.
• Fed officials face pressure to raise rates to combat stubbornly high inflation that has run above target since 2021.
• A rate hike could provoke a response from President Donald Trump, who has demanded that the central bank reduce interest rates.

Federal Reserve officials meet Wednesday to plot the next move in their campaign to keep prices stable, and fresh data shows inflation is far from vanquished.

Fed officials are widely expected to raise the central bank’s fed funds rate to combat inflation, increasing it a quarter-point to a range of 3.75% to 4% in the first rate hike since 2023. Financial markets are pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

Before last week, the decision had been considered a toss-up, partly because of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy of keeping tight-lipped about the central bank’s forthcoming interest rate moves. Since then, oil and fuel prices have spiked. Hopes of a quick end to the war in Iran have dimmed, raising concerns that record-high diesel prices could bleed through to other products and stoke a wave of inflation.

What This Means For The Economy

A rate hike could raise borrowing costs in the short run, but stabilize them in the long run if it convinces investors the Fed is serious about keeping inflation under control.

On Friday, a highly anticipated report on the Consumer Price Index showed inflation staying stubbornly above the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate in August. Crucially, the index of core inflation, which excludes the volatile prices for energy and gas, rose faster than forecasters had anticipated, signaling that inflation isn’t just a problem at the gas pump.

That’s especially significant because one key voter on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said this month that his vote would depend on the August CPI data.

Speaking at an event in Washington, Fed Governor Christopher Waller explained his thinking.

“My decision on the appropriate stance of policy will be heavily influenced by what we learn about August inflation,” he said. “If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level. But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”

Waller is considered a swing vote by Fed-watchers between a group that has advocated for rate hikes and another that has preferred to hold rates steady and wait for more economic data.

The Fed is balancing its dual mandate to control inflation and keep the job market steady: a higher fed funds rate pushes up borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, discouraging borrowing and spending. A rate hike could push down inflation, but it may also slow down the job market if money becomes too expensive.

Many economists think Friday’s inflation report will force the Fed’s hand and lead it to raise rates. Consumer prices have increased faster than the Fed’s target of a 2% annual rate since 2021.

“Rarely has a single piece of economic data seemingly held such sway, landing just days before an FOMC decision previously seen as a razor-close call,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. “In the event, CPI came in very close to consensus, but with just enough heat on the core reading to tip the scales heavily in favor of a Fed hike next week.”

The Fed Vs. The Feds

Raising rates could put the bank on a collision course with the White House. President Donald Trump has demanded rate cuts throughout his presidency and has waged an extraordinary campaign to influence the Federal Reserve. His administration’s unprecedented moves include legal threats against Warsh’s predecessor Jerome Powell, and an attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Trump escalated that campaign earlier this month with a social media post that seemed to threaten trade embargoes against foreign countries if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates.

“LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT,” Trump posted on social media.

The U.S. imports more than it exports with numerous nations, including its top trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China.

Stocks have in recent decades tended to rise in the year after the start of a rate-hike cycle.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates next week for the first time since July 2023.
• Historically, stocks often decline in the months following a rate hike but tend to recover over time.

Traders widely expect an interest-rate hike—the first in more than three years—from the Federal Reserve when it meets next week. What’s next for stocks if that happens? 

If history is any guide, which is hardly guaranteed, they may lose steam before recovering. The first four months after the start of a rate-increase cycle on average saw negative returns for the S&P 500 in the six such cycles since 1994, LPL Financial Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder said in a recent note. 

That would take us into early 2027. The benchmark index was up about 11% this year through Thursday’s close. 

The index’s performance tended to improve over time, according to LPL, with average 12-month returns of nearly 7% and a median gain of near 11% after the start of a rate-increase cycle. (Using the median smooths out a more than 40% gain that started in March 1997.) 

“Rate hikes do not typically derail bull markets,” Buchbinder wrote. “When rate increases coincide with rising recession risks, that’s a different story. Today, recession risks are low by all accounts.”

Stocks, however, don’t always rise in the year after the start of rate hikes. They were down 12 months after the start of the last cycle of increases, which coincided with the end of the pandemic. 

The U.S. central bank is contemplating a rate increase to deal with stubborn inflation. A hike on Wednesday would mark the first one since July 2023, when the Fed lifted rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. They’re currently at 3.50% to 3.75%, with futures traders currently placing the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at nearly 86%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Oracle shares are down about 50% in the last 12 months.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Several Wall Street analysts suggested Oracle’s stock could be due for a rebound after strong quarterly results.
• The shares have taken a big hit in recent months amid worries about the company’s spending to finance its data center expansion.

Could Oracle’s strong earnings report lead to turnaround in the stock?

Oracle (ORCL) shares popped more than 8% Friday morning before paring back their early gains, a day after the cloud infrastructure provider beat analysts’ estimates with its fiscal first-quarter results. The shares, which were up less than 1% in recent trading, have lost nearly half of their value from the same time last year, as worries around the company’s spending to finance its data center expansion and reliance on a few large customers have pressured sentiment. 

JPMorgan analysts told clients Friday they believe Oracle’s strong showing on the back of growth in its cloud business should “help in addressing the key concerns that have weighed on the shares.” Analysts from Citi said they believe the results “checked nearly every box,” and maintained their “buy” rating and $330 price target.

Morgan Stanley analysts were more cautious, with neutral rating and $210 price target. They called Oracle’s performance “impressive,” but said they’ll be waiting to see more evidence of the company’s ability to manage its margins and bring more compute capacity online.

While ratings are still in flux, most Wall Street analysts are bullish on Oracle’s stock. Of the 12 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, 10 recommend buying the shares, compared to one neutral and one “sell” rating. Their mean target hovers around $238. 

Oracle shares are down more than 20% since the year began.

Shoppers at a mall in Charlotte, North Carolina on Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026.
Credit: Travis Dove / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% in August from the same month in 2025, with the “core” index excluding food and energy up 2.4% annually, above the Fed’s 2% target.
• The report was largely in line with forecasters’ expectations and showed few signs of inflation descending.
• Economists said the report adds pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates at its next meeting to counteract inflation.

A highly anticipated report on the Consumer Price Index on Friday showed inflation stayed elevated in August, with few signs of descending to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 3.4% over 12 months in August, the same as in July. That was on par with economists’ expectations, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The “core” index, which excludes the volatile prices for food and energy, rose 2.4% over the year, down from a 2.5% increase in July and also matching expectations, but well above the Federal Reserve’s target of a 2% annual increase. On a monthly basis, however, core inflation was higher than expected, rising 0.3% from July, rather than the anticipated 0.2%.

The slightly hotter-than-expected core inflation could be the straw that broke the camel’s back when it comes to the Fed’s interest rate policy. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week to decide whether to raise the central bank’s key interest rate to push down inflation.

Higher core inflation, plus the recent surge in fuel prices due to the escalation of the war in Iran, adds pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Higher rates would push up borrowing costs across all kinds of loans throughout the economy.

Traders were pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-point rate hike Friday morning after the report, up from 70% beforehand, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

What This Means For The Economy

The report shows inflation was still hot in August, even before renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher after Labor Day.

“The upside surprise to core inflation means that the Fed is running out of reasons to wait,” Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist of investment strategy at Edward Jones, wrote in a commentary. “While the headline annual inflation rate came in as expected, the stronger-than-anticipated increase in core services inflation adds to concerns that price pressures may be broadening, strengthening the case for a near-term policy response.”

Much of the inflationary pressure came from the gas pump, with a 3.9% increase in gasoline prices from July accounting for a third of the 0.4% monthly increase in the overall index. A 2.7% increase in air fares and a 0.3% rise in shelter—up from a 0.1% increase in July—also contributed, as did a 0.3% increase in new and a 0.4% increased in used cars and trucks.

Some important prices fell, although they were outweighed by hikes elsewhere. Electricity decreased 0.4%, motor vehicle insurance declined 0.8%, and medical care services decreased 0.2% from July.

And a decelerating year-over-year core inflation rate could give some Fed officials room to argue for keeping the fed funds rate steady at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% rather than hiking it. Overall, though, the report tilted the odds in favor of a hike, economists said.

“The renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote in a commentary. “As such, we are now looking for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at next week’s policy meeting.”

News of the day for Sept. 11, 2026

The major stock indexes are on track to post losses for the week.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Stock futures are higher after four days of losses for major indexes as investors await a key inflation report; the August CPI report is the final piece of major economic data before the Fed makes a decision on interest rates next week; Oracle shares are soaring after a strong earnings report from the tech giant; Adobe shares are falling despite better-than-expected results from the software maker; and Kroger stock is sinking after the grocery chain released its earnings report . Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Rise as Oil, Treasury Yields Pull Back

Stock futures are gaining this morning as the market looks to close out a down week on a high note. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were up 0.6% recently, while tech-heavy Nasdaq futures added 0.7%. Heading into Friday trading, the Dow is down 2.5% for the week, which would be its biggest one-week drop since March. The major indexes all fell yesterday as oil prices and and Treasury yields continued surging. WTI crude oil futures were down 3% at $99 per barrel recently after hitting their highest level since May yesterday as the Iran war shows no end in sight. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is near a two-decade high amid concerns about inflation and rising U.S. debt, was at 4.96%, down from 4.97% at yesterday’s close. Gold futures were down 0.8% at $4,375 an ounce, while bitcoin was little changed at $77,000.

CPI Report Comes Ahead of Next Week’s Fed Meeting

Investors will get a final look at the state of the economy ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting with this morning’s release of the Consumer Price Index report. The data, due to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that prices rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending in August, the same figure as July, while “core” inflation excluding volatile food and fuel prices is expected to come in at 2.4%, down from the previous month’s 2.5% mark. The sharp rise in oil prices recently amid the escalation of fighting in the Middle East is leading to higher prices at the pump and will spark broader inflationary pressures. Those developments have sent government bond yields higher and boosted market expectations that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate.

Oracle Stock Surges on Strong Results, Outlook

Oracle (ORCL) shares are rising after the tech giant posted strong quarterly results and provided a rosy outlook. Oracle reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.92 on a 30% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $19.35 billion in its fiscal first quarter. Both figures topped analysts’ estimates compiled by Visible Alpha as cloud infrastructure revenues more than doubled. Its backlog rose to a record $664 billion. Oracle said it expects current-quarter revenue growth of 30% to 34%, and full-year revenue of at least $90 billion, ahead of consensus projections. Oracle shares were up 6% in recent premarket trading after entering the day down more than 20% this year and 50% in the last 12 months.

Adobe’s Beat-And-Raise Fails to Lift the Stock

Adobe (ADBE) posted quarterly results that topped analysts’ estimates and lifted its full-year outlook, but it wasn’t enough to boost the stock. The creative software maker posted adjusted earnings per share of $6.13 on a 13% year-over-year rise in revenue to a record $6.76 billion in its fiscal third quarter, ahead of analysts’ expectations. The company forecast current-quarter revenue of $6.80 billion to $6.85 billion, ahead of consensus projections, and lifted its full-year outlook. Still, shares of Adobe were down more than 4% in premarket trading. The stock has taken a hit in recent months amid worries about AI disruption and uncertainty around its leadership. The company is set to get a new CEO in December.

Kroger Stock Slips on Mixed Results

Kroger (KR) shares are falling after the grocery chain’s results came in mixed. Kroger said it earned an adjusted $1.09 per share in the second quarter, topping estimates, while sales of $34.62 billion and comparable sales growth of 0.2% each fell just short of estimates. Kroger also trimmed its comparable sales forecast for the year, now expecting them to grow by less than 1%. The retailer has cut prices in recent months to help win over customers with strained budgets. Kroger has also continued its efforts to expand since its deal to merge with Albertsons (ACI) was blocked, announcing a deal earlier in the quarter to buy Giant Eagle, a grocery chain across several states. Kroger shares were down nearly 3% ahead of the opening bell, after entering the day down about 25% from a record high set back in March.

Through Thursday’s close, Oracle shares were down more than 50% from last September’s record high.
Credit: Damian Lemanski / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oracle shares surged in extended trading Thursday after the tech giant reported record results and gave a rosy outlook.
• Revenue from Oracle’s cloud infrastructure business more than doubled from a year ago as more data center capacity came online.

Oracle’s stock is surging on gains in its cloud infrastructure business.

Shares of Oracle were up more than 6% in extended trading Thursday, rising after the database and cloud infrastructure giant posted quarterly results that topped analysts’ estimates and gave a rosy outlook. Oracle reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.92 on a 30% year-over-year rise in revenue to a record $19.35 billion in its fiscal first quarter. Both figures topped analysts’ estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Oracle said the results reflected “strong execution in our infrastructure business.” Revenue from the segment more than doubled to $7.4 billion as the company brought more data center capacity online.

“Customer demand for AI Cloud Training and Inferencing Services continues to grow faster than supply,” Oracle said in a statement. The company said it booked more than $30 billion of new AI cloud contracts in the quarter without requiring new infrastructure spending.

Its backlog rose to a record $664 billion, above the $639.89 billion analysts had called for.

Oracle said it expects current-quarter revenue growth of 30% to 34%, and full-year revenue of at least $90 billion, ahead of consensus projections.

The results and outlook could help improve confidence in Oracle’s stock, which has pulled back over the past year amid worries about its spending on AI infrastructure and exposure to a few large AI companies.

Shares of Oracle fell some 5% in Thursday’s regular session, leaving them off more than 50% from last September’s record highs.

Nike shares have lost more than 40% of their value since the start of the year.
Credit: Milad Payami / FIBA via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley analysts reinstated coverage of Nike on Thursday with an “underweight” rating and Street-low price target of $31.
• The analysts said they believe the consensus forecast for Nike “embeds too much growth too soon–particularly in China.”

Nike’s stock has had a tough time lately. One group of analysts says it could get even worse.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley relaunched coverage of Nike (NKE) Thursday with an “underweight” rating and a Street-low target of $31, well below the Visible Alpha consensus around $48. The shares ended down about 2% Thursday to a fresh 12-year low under $37. 

Only one of the other 13 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha has recommended selling the shares, with 10 neutral and two “buy” ratings.

The consensus forecast for Nike “embeds too much growth too soon–particularly in China,” Morgan Stanley wrote, citing macroeconomic headwinds and competition concerns. The analysts said they believe Nike’s current valuation is out of touch with an “increasingly fragmented” sportswear landscape.

The apparel maker is approaching two years since CEO Elliott Hill took over in late 2024. The company also brought on a new CFO back in August. The analysts said the CFO change, plus a “pressured” backdrop across athletic apparel, could make the company’s upcoming earnings report in October or its annual investor day in November a good time for Nike to “reset expectations” about the pace of its turnaround.

Thursday’s slide leaves Nike shares down more than 40% from the start of the year.