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Worker raises have failed to keep up with prices since the spring.
Credit: Drazen Zigic / Getty Images

What You Need to Know

• Average hourly wages only increased 3% year over year in September, a five-year low.
• Pay raises likely trailed inflation for a sixth straight month, eroding the buying power of paychecks.
• Slow wage growth in a stagnant labor market could undermine consumer spending.

For more than a year, economists have described the job market as a “no-hire, no-fire” environment. For many, it’s also been “no raises.”

Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September from August and 3% from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday in its monthly jobs report. That trails the roughly 3.4% annual inflation the Consumer Price Index showed in August and the 3.6% the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has projected for September, which the BLS reports Oct. 14.

The data showed that inflation, pushed up by fuel prices that have climbed since the war in Iran began, is eroding the buying power of Americans’ paychecks. If the Cleveland Fed’s projection holds, September will mark the sixth straight month when pay has risen less than prices.

Why This Matters to You

While consumer spending has stayed resilient despite high inflation, the diminishing buying power of wages could start to drag on the overall economy.

Slowing wage growth could threaten the broader economy, economists said. Because consumer spending makes up about 68% of gross domestic product, anything that undermines it risks economic growth.

“The wage miss is the most dangerous number,” Chris Osmond, Chief Investment Officer for Fifth Third Wealth Advisor, wrote in a commentary. “Wage growth is now running below the pace needed to sustain real consumer spending.”

Related Education

While 3% wage growth is the slowest in five years, it is close to the 2019 norm. Inflation, however, remains stuck above the prepandemic norm, so the same raise that once put workers ahead now leaves them behind.

“Slower wage growth means that with higher prices, workers and their families continue to find it difficult to make ends meet,” Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a commentary.

An electronic billboard displays the current U.S. National debt on August 30, 2026, in Washington, DC.
Credit: Photo by Jemal Countess / Getty Images for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation

Key Takeaways

• Despite a rise in yields on 10-year Treasurys, the interest rate the government pays on the national debt remains below the economy’s growth rate.
• As long as economic growth outpaces Treasury yields, debt as a proportion of the GDP can stay the same.
• Forecasters project this reassuring state of affairs won’t continue for long, and economists warn the government’s financial condition is unsustainable.

Now for something completely different: a reassuring statistic about the national debt.

The recent rise in yields on 10-year Treasuries to levels not seen since the Great Recession is bad news for the financial stability of the federal government, since it increases the cost of servicing the $40 trillion (and counting) national debt. However, data released this week show the economy is growing even faster than that.

An economy growing faster than yields means the debt as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product isn’t skyrocketing and could even shrink if the government ran only small budget deficits.

What This Means For the Economy

The fact that economic growth outpaces treasury yields means the U.S. government debt isn’t spiraling completely out of control, at least not yet.

Doing the Math

The two key figures economists compare are the yield on 10-year Treasuries—the financial asset through which most of the national debt is held—and the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product in nominal dollars (as opposed to inflation-adjusted “real” growth, as it is usually reported). As of the second quarter, the U.S. economy had grown 6.3% annually, the BEA said this week, surpassing the 5.3% yield of 10-year treasury as of Friday.

Economists call this comparison r (rate of interest) vs. g (growth), and at least so far, it’s in the green.

“Treasury yields are not yet at a level which by themselves would cause an unsustainable fiscal backdrop,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. “However, the ‘r vs. g’ is only one aspect of the equation... the other aspect is what the rest of finances are doing, and that is currently unsustainable.”

Indeed, forecasters at the Congressional Budget Office expect r to exceed g by 2028, which would mean the debt-to-GDP ratio could “rapidly expand,” economists at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a think tank that advocates for smaller budget deficits, wrote.

“To improve the nation’s fiscal trajectory, policymakers must focus on reducing primary deficits to put debt on a more sustainable path,” they wrote.

Onsemi and Synaptics shares are each up over 50% for the year.
Credit: Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Onsemi and Synaptics shares gained Friday after a revised merger deal.
• Analysts at Bank of America said Synaptics “fills key gaps” in Onsemi’s portfolio.

Onsemi and Synaptics shares are on the rise after a revised merger deal. 

Shares of Onsemi (ON) surged 6% and Synaptics (SYNA) shares jumped 14% Friday, a day after Onsemi said it will buy Synaptics in an all-cash deal at $123 per share, replacing an all-stock deal announced back in June. The $123 price per share represents a premium of about 16% to Thursday’s close.

The new terms value Synaptics at about $5.7 billion, down from a valuation of around $7 billion, and the move from an all-stock to all-cash transaction may ease doubts about the deal after a big drop in Onsemi’s shares, which are nearly 40% off their June record. Onsemi said it revised the proposal after Synaptics received a competing offer.  

“The all-cash transaction delivers higher value to our shareholders through lower total cost consideration,” Onsemi CEO Hassane El-Khoury said in a release, and that the deal is expected to add to the chipmaker’s earnings immediately after closing. The deal is still seen closing by mid-2027, and will be paid for through a mix of cash on hand and new debt.

Bank of America analysts said the new terms “could be received more favorably by investors as it removes the dilution overhang while preserving the strategic rationale.”

The analysts wrote that Synaptics “fills key gaps” in Onsemi’s portfolio. When it announced the deal in June, Onsemi said Synaptics’ chips designed for autonomous driving and robotics would complement its own portfolio of automotive and data center chips.

With Friday’s gains, Onsemi shares are up 57% for the year while Synaptics shares have added over 60%, though both are well below their summer highs.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

Memory stocks have been among this year’s hottest.
Credit: CFOTO / Future Publishing via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Toshiba reportedly plans to boost its hard-disk-drive capacity through a $380 million Philippines expansion.
• Seagate and Western Digital fell Friday, leading S&P 500 decliners.

Two memory stocks took a hit today—hard. News out of Japan looks like one reason why.

With AI-driven data storage demand soaring, Toshiba will reportedly double its production capacity for hard disk drives. The company will invest roughly $380 million to expand its facilities in the Philippines, according to a Nikkei Asia report; the outlet said Toshiba’s “share by storage capacity stands at just over 10%, but it aims to reach 30% in the medium term.”

That news appeared to weigh on shares of Seagate Technology and Western Digital today. Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC), the two biggest players in the HDD space, both dropped 10% to lead S&P 500 decliners.

The broader DRAM ETF (DRAM), meanwhile, lost less than 1%, while the S&P 500 moved higher. Read Investopedia’s full coverage of today’s markets here.

Despite selling off today, shares of Seagate and Western Digital have skyrocketed roughly 200% and 140%, respectively, since the start of the year.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

Shares of Strategy have been beneficiaries of a run-up in bitcoin.
Credit: Jakub Porzycki / NurPhoto via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Bitcoin’s 35% three-month rise helped Strategy shares gain more than 70%.
• Citi recently raised its base-case bitcoin target to $113,000 by October 2027.

Crypto markets are springing back to life. And one bitcoin-linked stock has reaped big benefits. 

The price of bitcoin has risen roughly 35% in the past three months, recently trading at around $85,000. Digital asset treasury Strategy (MSTR) has gained more than 70% during that time, driving the stock’s year-to-date performance into positive territory. Shares of Strategy were up 3% compared to the S&P 500’s 11% in 2026 through Thursday’s close. 

Wall Street is starting to wax bullish on bitcoin after the recent rally. Citi’s Alex Saunders sees it reaching $113,000 by October 2027, boosting the firm’s previous base-case forecast of $82,000 set in late June.

He attributed the boost to “debasement fears” following the Treasury Department’s announcement last month that it will step up its bond buybacks, as well as new federal agency guidelines regarding crypto regulation following Clarity Act’s failed progress in the Senate. 

“The natural reflexive nature of crypto markets has boosted sentiment further,” Saunders wrote in a report on Thursday, adding that his base case assumes spot bitcoin ETF inflows reach $5 billion over the next 12 months, up from prior assumptions of flat flows.  

Citi’s bull case for bitcoin puts prices at over $150,000, implying upside of more than 75%, a climb to record highs. Its bear case is at $43,000, or downside of about 50% from recent levels.

If crypto markets continue to recover, and trading activity follows suit, exchanges and platforms such as Coinbase (COIN), which is down more than 15% so far this year and Robinhood (HOOD), down about 4%, could benefit.

Tesla shares are still down nearly 20% this year.
Credit: Patrick Pleul / picture alliance via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Tesla shares rose Friday after third-quarter deliveries topped analysts’ estimates.
• Investors will get a more detailed look at Tesla’s performance when the company reports earnings later this month.

Tesla shares are surging after the electric vehicle giant’s deliveries blew past expectations.

Tesla (TSLA) said this morning that it delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, well above the 456,000 consensus of analysts tracked by Visible Alpha. The EV maker’s stock jumped close to 5%, making it one of the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 Friday.

The EV maker produced 464,391 vehicles in the quarter, a bit below calls for just under 487,000 vehicles, but up from the 447,000 produced in the third quarter of 2025.

Still, shares of Tesla are down nearly 20% for the year. The stock has been pressured in recent months amid worries about Tesla’s investments in transitioning its business to focus on autonomous cars and robotics squeezing profits. 

Investors will get a more detailed look at Tesla’s third-quarter performance later this month, when the company reports earnings after the closing bell on Oct. 21.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

Amazon shares are up 10% for the year so far.
Credit: Sven Hoppe / picture alliance via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Amazon is considering spinning off thousands of Nvidia chips into a special purpose vehicle, according to a report by The Financial Times.
• The move would allow Amazon to continue using the chips without keeping the depreciating assets on its balance sheet, the report said.

Amazon is looking to get $8 billion worth of AI chips off its balance sheet, per a report late yesterday.

Amazon (AMZN) is considering spinning off thousands of Nvidia (NVDA) chips into a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to pursue a more asset-light strategy, The Financial Times reported last night, citing people familiar with the matter. 

Amazon would lease the chips back from the SPV, allowing them to continue using the chips without keeping the depreciating assets on its balance sheet, the report said. The thousands of Nvidia Blackwell chips have already been bought or leased by Amazon, and installed in data centers across five states, per the report.

The move would mark the latest example of how big tech companies are seeking creative solutions to finance their massive data center buildout plans while also minimizing risks and maintaining their margins and credit ratings. Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.

Nine of the largest tech companies in the U.S. had about $3 trillion in off-balance sheet commitments as of August, per The Wall Street Journal, indicating the spending plans of many big tech firms may be larger than they seem.

Amazon and Nvidia shares were up about 2% in recent trading, on a day when markets rose broadly. Shares of Amazon have climbed 10% in 2026 so far, while Nvidia shares added 27%. 

It’s been difficult to find a job if you don’t already have one in the “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.
Credit: Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in September, creating just 29,000 positions compared to 133,000 in August.
• The weak job market is holding down wages, which grew just 0.1%, not keeping up with inflation.
• The faltering job market reduces the chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting at the end of the month.

It turns out the job market is on a weaker footing than previously believed.

U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, down from a gain of 133,000 in August and lower than the 84,000 forecasters had anticipated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. Revisions to the July and August reports took away 60,000 jobs from the previous two months’ reported job growth.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1% in August, but remains relatively low by historical standards. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, down from a 0.2% increase in August, and the lowest since December, indicating workers are less in demand and losing bargaining power.

What This Means For The Economy

The job market has been resilient against multiple headwinds over the last few years, with the unemployment rate staying low, but is showing signs of strain. A weak job market reduces the ability of consumers to support economic growth through spending.

The report shows the job market, which had been resilient to various economic pressures, is showing signs of strain. There have been few layoffs, but little job creation, making it hard to find a job if you don’t already have one.

Payroll declined in information, finance and professional and business services while most of the gains came from health care and social assistance. Some economists saw the data as evidence of the impact AI is having on the job market.

“Sectors which have adopted AI quickly are continuing to shed jobs,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary.

Hiring has also been held back by rising interest rates for all kinds of loans, as rising bond yields have pushed up borrowing costs.

“Employers were likely responding to the tighter fiscal environment, as high Treasury yields and a Fed rate hike make borrowing more expensive, thus dampening plans for hiring and expansion in the near term,” Nicole Bachaud, an economist at job site ZipRecruiter, wrote in a commentary.

The uptick in the unemployment rate is partly because more people are looking for work: the labor force participation rate edged up to 61.8% from 61.6% in August, its highest level since May.

The weaker-than-expected data could influence officials at the Federal Reserve, who meet at the end of the month to set the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.

Policymakers are considering whether to raise the key fed funds rate for a second meeting in a row to push down inflation. However, the cooler-than-expected reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator for August, combined with a more fragile-than-expected job market, reduces the chances of a rate hike.

The odds of a rate hike at the October meeting fell as low as 17% Friday morning, down from 24% the day before, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

A rate hike would increase borrowing costs for many short-term loans and discourage borrowing and spending. That could put downward pressure on inflation but could also slow the economy and the job market. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to keep prices stable and employment high, so setting the rate is a balancing act between those considerations.

Update, Oct. 2, 2026 — This article has been updated with more detail about the jobs report and commentary from economists. It was originally published Oct. 2, 2026.

News of the day for Oct. 2, 2026

The S&P 500 and Dow rose slightly yesterday to snap three-day losing streaks.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Stock futures are higher as oil prices fall and Treasury yields stabilize; the September jobs report is scheduled to be released this morning; Nike stock is tumbling after a disappointing sales forecast; Amazon is reportedly looking to move thousands of Nvidia chips off its balance sheet; and Broadcom is raising up to $60 billion to loan to some of its AI customers. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Rise as Oil Prices Fall

Stock futures are gaining ground Friday morning as investors await the latest jobs report (more on that below). Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were up 0.5% recently, while tech-heavy Nasdaq futures climbed 0.6%. The major indexes each posted slight gains to open the month yesterday, but all three remain in the red for the week. WTI crude oil futures were down nearly 4% at around $89 per barrel even as President Trump has said it’s “possible” the U.S. could ramp up attacks on Iran after the midterm elections next month. The 10-year Treasury yield was down slightly at 5.22% after setting a 24-year high of 5.35% in early trading yesterday. Gold futures were little-changed at $4,215 an ounce, while bitcoin was trading at $86,500, up from yesterday’s low around $83,000.

September Jobs Report Due This Morning

The September employment report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the U.S. economy remains in a “low hire, low fire” mode. Economists estimate that employers added 84,000 jobs last month, down from the 182,000 that were added in August, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%, which is low by historical standards. A hiring number in line or higher than expectations would support the notion that the labor market remains on sound footing, which is good news for the economy but could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The Fed last month raised its benchmark rate for the first time in three years in a bid to tame inflation that remains well above the central bank’s target.

Nike Stock Tumbles After Earnings Report

Nike (NKE) shares are tumbling after the athletic apparel giant posted a mixed earnings report and forecast a larger sales decline than analysts had anticipated. After last night’s closing bell, Nike said it earned 48 cents per share in its fiscal first quarter, 4 cents ahead of estimates, while its sales of $11.21 billion came in short of estimates. Nike is now forecasting a high-single-digit decline of sales in this fiscal year, larger than analysts were expecting and worsening from the roughly flat sales it reported in fiscal 2026. Nike shares were down more than 8% in recent premarket trading, on track to hit a new lowest point since 2013.

Amazon Reportedly Seeks to Offload $8B of Nvidia Chips

Amazon (AMZN) is looking to get billions of dollars worth of AI chips off of its balance sheet, per a new report from The Financial Times. The report, citing people familiar, said Amazon is considering spinning off thousands of Nvidia (NVDA) chips into a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to pursue a more asset-light balance sheet. Amazon would lease the chips back from the SPV, which would be supported by selling debt to new investors, limiting the risk for Amazon, the report said. The idea serves as the latest example of how big tech companies are seeking creative solutions to finance their massive data center buildout plans while also minimizing their risk and maintaining solid credit ratings. Amazon shares were up less than 1% ahead of the opening bell.

Broadcom Raising $60 Billion to Loan to Chip Customers, Report Says

Broadcom (AVGO) is in talks with a range of potential investors for up to $60 billion in new financing the chipmaker plans to loan to Anthropic and other AI firms, Bloomberg reported overnight. Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI startups have committed to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of chips to run their AI models, and some chipmakers such as Nvidia and now Broadcom are looking to help them afford those deals. While interest in the round could help ease fears that some on Wall Street are growing wary of the AI sector’s spending plans, it also serves as a new example of the circular financing—with chipmakers helping to fund their customers—that has drawn criticism. Broadcom shares were up 1% premarket.

With Friday’s drop, Nike shares have lost close to half their value since the year began.
Credit: Alex Tai / SOPA Images / LightRocket / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nike shares fell Friday after the sports apparel retailer projected a bigger slide in sales than analysts anticipated.
• Its quarterly revenue missed estimates, as sales slid in China and the company’s Europe, Middle East and Africa segment.

Nike said its sales are going to get worse this year. Investors aren’t pleased.

Shares of Nike (NKE) dropped 4% Friday, a day after the sports apparel maker forecast a bigger decline in sales than Wall Street expected.

Nike said it expects revenues to fall by “high-single digits” this fiscal year, compared to the low-single digit decline analysts anticipated and flat growth the prior year, as the company works to turn around its business. Its forecast for adjusted earnings per share at $1.15 to $1.35 also disappointed the Street.

Nike posted fiscal first-quarter earnings per share of $0.48, slightly above the $0.44 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha called for. Sales, which slid 4% year-over-year to $11.21 billion, fell short of the $11.33 billion consensus. Nike said the drop was primarily due to weakness in China and its Europe, Middle East and Africa segment.

“We have more work to do in Nike Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China, and we’re taking deliberate actions to strengthen those businesses the right way for the long-term,” CEO Elliott Hill said in a press release.

The weaker-than-expected outlook deals a blow to hopes a recovery could come soon for Nike’s stock, which has slumped in recent months amid worries a turnaround for the company’s sales might not come until 2028. With Friday’s drop, Nike shares have lost close to half their value since the year began.

Investors will get a chance to hear more from Nike on its turnaround plans when the company hosts its annual investor day next month.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.